The UNC Tar Heels take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
NC State is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. NC State prediction and college basketball picks for February 17, 2026.
UNC vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: NC State -7
My UNC vs NC State best bet is on the Wolfpack to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs. NC State Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- UNC vs NC State spread: NC State -7
- UNC vs NC State over/under: 158.5 points
- UNC vs NC State moneyline: UNC +240, NC State -300
UNC vs NC State College Basketball Betting Preview
UNC Basketball
UNC comes into this game sitting at 20-5 overall and 8-4 in the ACC after its win against Pittsburgh.
The Tar Heels were shorthanded in that victory, as Caleb Wilson is out indefinitely with a broken hand, while Henri Veesaar was a last-minute scratch due to an illness. As I write this preview, there isn’t an update on Veesaar’s status for Tuesday.
Seth Trimble is someone who needs to be aggressive offensively with Wilson out. In the win against Pitt, Trimble had 19 points on 5-of-13 shooting from the field and 9-of-11 from the free-throw line. In three career games at NC State, Trimble has struggled, averaging 3.3 points per game.
6-foot-10 Jarin Stevenson played a career high in minutes (36) and had a season-high 19 points in the victory against the Panthers. He shot 6-of-7 from the field and 3-of-4 from 3-point range.
Stevenson has been starting at the three the last couple of games alongside Wilson and Veesaar in the frontcourt, but with Wilson out, he's slid back to the four spot.
If Veesaar is good to go in this game, UNC will be aggressive in trying to score in the paint with him, Stevenson and Trimble against a smaller NC State frontcourt.
NC State Basketball
NC State sits at 18-8 overall and 9-4 in the ACC after suffering back-to-back losses in disastrous fashion.
Against Louisville, NC State lost 118-77, and against Miami, the Wolfpack blew a 76-69 lead with 1:07 left and fell 77-76.
Though it's lost two in a row, NC State remains one of the better offenses in the country. The Wolfpack rank 21st overall in offensive efficiency, while sitting second in the ACC in 3-point percentage and turnover percentage.
After scoring 20 or more in three straight games, preseason ACC Player of the Year Darrion Williams has totaled just 23 points (7.6 PPG) over the last three contests, shooting 26% from the field and 22% from three.
Fortunately for Williams, he’s facing a UNC defense that ranks last in 3-point defense in the ACC.
Though they lack interior size, the Wolfpack make up for it by being aggressive in passing lanes. NC State ranks second in steal percentage and third in turnover percentage.
UNC vs. NC State Betting Analysis
Will Wade made headlines in the offseason after acquiring former Tar Heel Ven-Allen Lubin, saying, “The other school was too dumb to play him. When he plays 28-plus minutes — he’s done that in 23 games — he’s averaged 15 and eight. I don’t know why the hell they didn’t play him. But we’re going to play him, and he’s going to average 15 and eight.”
To Wade’s credit, he isn’t far off from his June 15 prediction, as Lubin is averaging 13 points and seven rebounds per game.
NC State is hungry after dropping two straight. Defensively, the Wolfpack will be aggressive in the passing lanes against a UNC backcourt that's been underwhelming this season.
Offensively, they’re one of the better three-point shooting teams in the ACC, and they’re facing a UNC defense that ranks last in the league in 3-point defense.
Most importantly, there's no replacing Wilson — not just because of his consistent production, but because of his competitiveness. He would thrive in this environment.
My Pick: NC State -7
