The St. John's Red Storm take on the Providence Friars in Providence, RI. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on TNT.
St. John's is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 169.5 points.
Here’s my St. John's vs. Providence prediction and college basketball picks for February 14, 2026.
St. John's vs Providence Prediction
My Pick: Over 169.5 (Play to 170)
My St. John's vs Providence best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
St. John's vs. Providence Odds
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
- St. John's vs Providence spread: St. John's -8.5
- St. John's vs Providence over/under: 169.5 points
- St. John's vs Providence moneyline: St. John's -425, Providence +325
St. John's vs Providence College Basketball Betting Preview
St. John's Basketball
Rick Pitino’s group is playing great basketball right now, as it's in the midst of a 10-game win streak. The Johnnies have only lost twice since Thanksgiving and sit at 22nd on KenPom. Ironically, the Red Storm were up at 16th on KenPom prior to this streak.
This group continues to win basketball games because of a few key elements, one of which has been the play of Zuby Ejiofor, the frontrunner for Big East Player of the Year. He's been absolutely fantastic all season, averaging 16.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 54% from the floor.
He draws fouls better than anyone in the Big East and is fourth in the league in offensive rebounding rate.
Everything flows through Ejiofor offensively. His improved ability to see the floor and pass out of double teams is crucial in generating open looks for his teammates. In Big East play, this is a much improved shooting group, hitting at a 36% clip through 13 games.
St. John’s is also 18th nationally in defensive efficiency and second in the Big East in turnover rate. This group is athletic, switchable and plays very hard.
Dillon Mitchell is one of the best individual defenders in the country.
The Johnnies run teams off the 3-point line, allowing only 34% of opponent field goal attempts to come from beyond the arc, the 28th-lowest rate nationally.
One of the knocks on this St. John’s team earlier in the season was the lack of a true point guard. Idaho State transfer Dylan Darling has quieted those concerns with his recent play. He scored 16 points in Monday's win over Xavier, and he’s hit clutch shots in multiple games over the past few weeks.
Providence Basketball
Providence is the best team in the country … that has a losing record.
Year three of the Kim English era has been a rough one for the Friars, who sit at 11-14 on the season with a 4-10 mark in Big East play.
However, this is a talented team that could easily have a much better record. It’s been a season of heartbreak, as the Friars have lost four overtime games while blowing big leads at home to their two biggest rivals, UConn and Georgetown.
The Friars rank 64th in KenPom, with the 18th-best offense but the 213th-ranked defense.
This group loves to run, they play at the 17th-fastest pace nationally, which is part of the reason Providence is bottom 10 in the country in points allowed per game (85.6).
Even with one of the best shot blockers in the country in Oswin Erhunmwunse, this Providence defense has been flat-out bad all season. It's bottom 15 nationally in forcing turnovers, and none of the guards or wings is a true “stopper.” Teams of all different offensive styles have had their way against this group.
The reason Providence has been so competitive is that, offensively, it has a collection of talented players who can create for themselves and for others.
Jaylin Sellers is one of the best scoring guards in the country, averaging 17.4 points on 46.8% shooting and 41.5% from deep.
Jason Edwards can be a bit streaky, but he’s averaging 17.3 points per game.
Estonian freshman Stefan Vaaks has scored 20-plus in three of his last four, and muscular freshman Jamier Jones is up to over 12 a game as well.
The problem is the formula of these fast-paced games and efficient offense hasn’t translated into enough wins.
St. John's vs. Providence Betting Analysis
When these teams faced off at Madison Square Garden on January 3, Providence stormed back late to pull off a 77-71 upset, riding the heroics of Vaaks. My biggest takeaway from that game, however, is that the Friars don't have an answer for Ejiofor.
He scored a career-high 33 points and took an absurd 23 free throws, although he only hit 14. As a team, St. John’s attempted 37 and made just 24. The Johnnies also grabbed 25 offensive rebounds, 11 of which were Ejiofor's.
Providence basically has to go under every screen and pack it in defensively to have any chance of competing on the glass and protecting the paint. That’s why St. John’s attempted a season-high 31 triples in the last matchup, much higher than its season average of 21. The Johnnies only cashed in on seven of those, a measly 22.5%.
All of that is to say Providence has one of the best home-court environments in the country and was tough for St. John’s to guard last time.
It’s a huge number for the total, but I’m still rolling with the over here. It's two fast-paced teams. Providence has enough juice to score 85 on anybody at home, and I don’t think there’s any way they stop Ejiofor from dominating, whether through scoring or facilitating.
My Pick: Over 169.5 (Play to 170)
