The UCF Knights take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Houston is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1400. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my UCF vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for February 4, 2026.
UCF vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Under 148.5
My UCF vs Houston best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UCF vs. Houston Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
- UCF vs Houston spread: Houston -14.5
- UCF vs Houston over/under: 148.5 points
- UCF vs Houston moneyline: UCF +850, Houston -1400
UCF vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
UCF Basketball
UCF has put together a really solid Big 12 campaign, going 6-3 in league play while sitting at 17-4 overall. UCF has a few more solid opportunities to improve its NCAA Tournament positioning, and the Knights have already shown they can go toe-to-toe with some of the premier squads in all of college basketball.
UCF was picked 15th in the Big 12 preseason poll and have vastly exceeded expectations at this point in the season.
The Knights are playing fast, scoring the ball with efficient offensive play and have four players averaging double figures in scoring. Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks each average 14 points per game, while Jordan Burks and Jamichael Stillwell are contributing a dozen points each a contest.
The Knights have really seen this roster come together cohesively, as head coach Johnny Dawkins was tasked with getting 13 new players to play as a team.
They're doing so successfully on the offensive end. UCF plays a physical style and the Knights have done very well to crash the offensive glass, ranking 22nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
The defense hasn't been elite, but it's been consistently above average for UCF this season. The Knights are tall and athletic and have done well to be in a good defensive position without fouling its opponent.
This is a good defensive rebounding team and Stillwell and John Bol protect the rim well. UCF doesn't force a ton of turnovers, and if the Knights can keep Houston off the offensive glass, they should have a chance to be in this game late.
Houston Basketball
Houston has rebounded nicely from a recent loss at Texas Tech by winning back-to-back games against TCU and Cincinnati over the last week.
Sensational freshman Kingston Flemings continues to dazzle game after game, and he leads the Cougars in scoring, averaging 17 points per game.He also leads the Cougars with 114 assists.
Emanuel Sharp is averaging 16.3 points and Milos Uzan scores 11.4 points per game. This Houston offense is as dangerous as any team in America when the deep shots are falling, and we've seen it nail nine or more 3-point shots in six consecutive games.
The Cougars' defense has been a calling card for years under head coach Kelvin Sampson, and this season, the defense is strong once again. The Cougars rank 11th in overall defensive efficiency, and it can ramp up the on-ball pressure about as well as any team in college basketball.
Houston is third nationally in defensive turnover rate, forcing it 23% of all possessions faced.
It's been hard to penetrate the lane or find looks at the rim against the Cougars, who appear poised to make a strong run in the Big 12 and beyond.
UCF vs. Houston Betting Analysis
This line opened Houston -14.5 with a total set at 148.5. I'm going to be diving in on the under.
This has been a very defensive-focused series, as the last three games have seen 137, 126 and 99 total points scored. These two long-tenured coaches are familiar with each other and the schemes that coincide with the matchup.
I think the UCF size could create some issues in the post for Houston while it's operating offensively. Flemings loves to create off the drive and he's an outstanding facilitator, but I do believe UCF can perform well enough on this end to force Houston into settling for mid-range jumpers or “end of the shot clock” 3s.
In Houston’s most recent outing on Saturday, we saw what this defense is capable of when fully locked in. The Cougars have been very good at protecting the rim and should give up nothing cheap in the paint.
The on-ball pressure will also be as intense as anything UCF has seen this season.
Houston has gone long stretches where the defense fuels big runs, and I would expect one of those 6-8-minute runs in this game as the Cougars start to separate.
This defense is elite and should frustrate UCF in the half-court. I think this total is a hair too high, and I think this one finishes under.
My Pick: Under 148.5
