The UNC Tar Heels take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC., on Saturday, March 7. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 17.5 points on the spread and the moneyline is -2400. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 7.
UNC vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -17.5
My UNC vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs Duke Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -115 | 147.5 -105o / -115u | +1200 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -105 | 147.5 -105o / -115u | -2400 |
- UNC vs Duke spread: Duke -17.5
- UNC vs Duke over/under: 147.5 points
- UNC vs Duke moneyline: UNC +1200, Duke -2400
UNC vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
UNC Basketball
UNC received some tough news on Friday: Star freshman Caleb Wilson is done for the season with a thumb injury. He was already out with an injury to his other hand, but he hurt his thumb shooting and is now officially done.
The Tar Heels played their past six games without Wilson, going 5-1 in that span. But going from playing Clemson and Louisville as your toughest foes to Duke is a whole different task. Plus, both of those games were at home; this one is in Durham.
In the six games sans-Wilson, North Carolina is 52nd in offensive efficiency and 48th in defensive efficiency.
The presence of Wilson is more missed on the offensive end. He averaged over 20 points per game and could attack teams with his size and speed combo and occasional shooting touch.
They don’t have another guy like that on the roster. Stepping in for Wilson is Jarin Stevenson, who's less versatile than Wilson. Stevenson is always looking to shoot, while Wilson was a force inside.
Henri Veesaar is the Heels' go-to guy with Wilson out. The 7-footer from Estonia leads the team with 16 points per game and shoots 41% from deep. He played well in the first Duke game, scoring 13 points with 11 boards.
Without Wilson, the Heels are a more perimeter-oriented bunch. They went from shooting 59% from 2-point range with Wilson — the 37th best in the country — to 56% (38th) without Wilson.
The guard play is a bit shaky. Kyan Evans is a non-factor, and Luka Bogavac is pretty inconsistent. He channeled his inner Klay Thompson in the Clemson game, but he's a 35% shooter from deep.
That's a bit of a worry in this matchup.
Duke Basketball
Duke is on a heater right now. The Blue Devils have won six straight ACC games by 13+ points. In the last three, they beat Notre Dame by 54, Virginia by 26 and NC State by 29.
So, what went right for Duke to cover such hefty spreads? It's the shooting. Duke shot 36% from 3 against Notre Dame, 50% against Virginia and 39% versus NC State.
We already knew Duke was one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Blue Devils rank first in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and they limit teams to 46% shooting on 2s (15th) and 29% from 3 (16th). Also, Duke is ninth in defensive rebounding rate and second in free-throw rate.
The result? Toss up 3s and pray. Opponents attempt 3s on 46% of their shots against Duke, and the Blue Devils' positional length and physicality are why.
Cam Boozer is the best player in the country by far. He averages 22.6 points, 10 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. He can pass it to shooters with ease, drive from the perimeter and even shoot 3s at a 40% clip.
Let's revisit the shooting: Early on, I didn't know if Duke had enough around Boozer. Now, the answer is quickly becoming yes. Isaiah Evans is a microwave shooter, but he's a monster when the shots fall. Dame Sarr played well against NC State, and Caleb Foster is excelling in an off-ball role.
UNC vs Duke Pick, Betting Analysis
I know rivalry games are tough, but Duke is the better team — by a lot.
Plus, the Blue Devils outplayed UNC in Chapel Hill, but Duke didn't hang on to a double-digit lead.
I don't see that happening again.
The Blue Devils are firing on all cylinders, and this has the feel of a 20+ point win.
My Pick: Duke -17.5
