The Virginia Cavaliers take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Tip-off is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2.
NC State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. The total is set at 154.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. NC State prediction and college basketball picks for January 3, 2026.
Virginia vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: NC State -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Virginia vs NC State best bet is on the Wolfpack to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs. NC State Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
- Virginia vs NC State spread: NC State -3.5
- Virginia vs NC State over/under: 154.5 points
- Virginia vs NC State moneyline: Virginia +140, NC State -166
Virginia vs NC State College Basketball Betting Preview
Virginia Basketball
Virginia has gotten off to an 11-2 start in Ryan Odom's first season in the program, dropping its ACC opener in Blacksburg against its rival Virginia Tech, 95-85. This game was an absolute classic, a triple-overtime dogfight on New Year’s Eve.
Virginia is playing a different style than it normally does this season. This group is playing much faster than the days of Tony Bennett, with the Cavs’ average offensive possession length down to 16.5 seconds. Virginia is 17th on KenPom in offensive efficiency and is shooting 37.5% from deep as a team.
While Virginia isn't as elite as normal on the defensive side of the floor, it excels in certain areas. The Cavs are 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed (44.3%) and fifth nationally in block rate.
Virginia has the luxury of playing two strong rim protectors in Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso.
And then on the offensive end, the Cavs have a 6-foot-9 big man from Belgium, Thijs De Ridder. He leads the way for Virginia with 16.5 points per game.
Jacari White’s broken wrist has definitely decreased the fun meter on this Virginia team. The electric 3-point shooter provided a huge boost off the bench for Odom’s squad and his absence has been felt.
NC State Basketball
NC State is 10-4 at the turn of the calendar, but Will Wade’s squad is much better than its record indicates. The Wolfpack ranks 24th in the country on KenPom, with a top-36 unit in both offense and defense.
Wade’s crew has been playing fast and efficient offense this season. The Wolfpack are shooting 38.5% from deep and are 24th nationally in effective field goal percentage. They're playing at the 47th-fastest tempo offensively and rank 37th in the country in turnover percentage.
Defensively, NC State has been great at keeping teams off the offensive glass thus far, ranking 30th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. This group isn’t as elite as some of Wade’s past teams in terms of forcing turnovers, but it's still 60th in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
A clip from Wade’s postgame press conference following State’s 70-57 home win over Wake Forest went semi-viral on Saturday.
Wade was irate after being asked about Darrion Williams’ shooting struggles, saying, “I’m tired of hearing about it. He affects winning. Everybody needs to shut the hell up about him!”
Williams is 3-for-20 from the field over the last two games, although the Pack won both by double digits. He’s only scored over 11 points once since November 26, and he was a Preseason All-ACC First Team selection.
While I do agree with Wade that he’s impacted recent games in positive ways outside of scoring, it was a valid question by the reporter.
All that to say, I’m not worried about Williams, and I absolutely think he gets back on track soon.
While Williams is, on paper, the best player on this team, McNeese transfer Quadir Copeland has been the heart and soul of this group. Copeland leads the team by averaging 5.9 assists and 1.4 steals per game, while adding 14.1 points and 3.4 rebounds as well.
The lone returning Wolfpack player from the Kevin Keatts regime — Paul McNeil Jr. — has been on a heater lately.
Over State’s last three games, he’s 19-for-34 from long range, most of which came in a 47-point explosion against Texas Southern on December 17.
Virginia vs. NC State Betting Analysis
Two top-five teams in the ACC with first-year head coaches are squaring off here.
Here’s why I’m laying the small number with the home team.
First off, Virginia has to be pretty drained from that triple-overtime loss a few days back. Virginia has a tough schedule to start conference play, going from a road rivalry game to another road matchup against one of the best teams in the league.
NC State, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game outside of the state of North Carolina in a month.
The two key determinants here are how Virginia shoots from deep and how NC State keeps the Cavs off the offensive glass.
Virginia is an elite offensive rebounding team, and although State is a bit undersized in the frontcourt — starting 6-foot-9 Ven-Allen Lubin at the five — it's 30th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, as mentioned earlier.
Backup big man 6-foot-10 Musa Sagnia has played his best ball as of late and has been productive on the glass.
A little under 49% of NC State's opponent field goal attempts come from long distance, which is the ninth-highest 3-point rate allowed in the country.
Virginia is a good 3-point shooting team, but the loss of White has really hurt it. I think it would've beaten Virginia Tech last game if it had him, as the Cavs shot 10-for-45 from deep in that loss.
All that to say, in a close game like this that could likely come down to 3-point variance, I'll be siding with the home team.
My Pick: NC State -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
