2018 College Football Bowl Projections After Week 9: New Faces Crack NY6

Oct 28, 2018 10:33 AM EDT
  • Eleven ranked college football teams lost on Saturday, shaking up our bowl projections after Week 9.
  • The College Football Playoff top four remains the same in advance of the first official rankings, which will be released Tuesday.

How’s this for chaos? 11 teams ranked in the AP Top 25 lost on Saturday, shaking up 2018 college football bowl projections as we enter November, and the home stretch of the regular season.

Our College Football Playoff projections remain the same, but a few teams dropped out of the New Year’s Six bowls after losing in Week 9.

2018 College Football Bowl Projections 

Bowl projections are taking shape as we finish Week 9. So much of the early-season projections are based on what we think we know about these teams, and now we know a little more — like Kentucky being a top-10 team in November. Go figure.

College Football Playoff Projections

Our top four remains the same this week. Alabama and Michigan were idle, while Clemson and Notre Dame took care of business as big favorites.

College Football New Year’s Six Bowls

Texas drops out of the New Year’s Six, but Florida remains as an at-large selection because how many two-loss teams will there really be at the end of the season? The Gators have a good chance to win out and work their way back into the top 10.

Georgia gets the Sugar Bowl because it now has a great chance to win the SEC East, while LSU would fall back to an at-large spot with a loss to Alabama.

That last at-large spot might go to Penn State, Utah, West Virginia or … Kentucky? There are too many important games to be played to really know.

Every Other 2018 Bowl Game Projection

We’ve got to leave Kentucky in the SEC’s top non-New Year’s Six bowl because the ‘Cats are a dog to Georgia next week, so you assume the favorite wins. But if UK can pull it out, it will get bumped up into the New Year’s Six and Georgia will drop down.

Texas rejoins the dregs, as does Washington.

The Pac-12 might be the messiest conference right now, with a whole glut of teams at four or five wins. The Arizona-Arizona State winner might reach a bowl game, while the loser gets knocked out. Stanford, Oregon and Washington still have some separating to do.

College Football Bowl Tie-Ins for 2018-19

College Football Playoff

  • Cotton Bowl semifinal (Arlington, Texas)
  • Orange Bowl semifinal (Miami)

New Year’s Six

  • Sugar (New Orleans): Big 12 vs. SEC
  • Rose (Pasadena, Calif.): Big Ten vs. Pac-12
  • Peach (Atlanta): At-large vs. at-large
  • Fiesta (Glendale, Ariz.): At-large vs. at-large

The highest-ranked Group of 5 team will go to either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl, depending on geography.

Every Other Bowl

Notre Dame has ACC bowl ties, so if it doesn’t reach a New Year’s Six Bowl (it looks likely that it will), it will take an ACC spot.

BYU was supposed to be tied to the Poinsettia Bowl, but that no longer exists. The Cougars do have a deal with ESPN that guarantees they’ll play in a bowl if eligible.

  • Citrus Bowl (Orlando): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
  • Outback Bowl (Tampa): Big Ten vs. SEC
  • Gator Bowl (Jacksonville): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
  • Holiday Bowl (San Diego): Big Ten vs. Pac-12
  • Liberty Bowl (Memphis): Big 12 vs. SEC
  • Military Bowl (Annapolis): ACC vs. American
  • Alamo Bowl (San Antonio): Big 12 vs. Pac-12
  • Arizona Bowl (Tucson): Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
  • Camping World Bowl (Orlando): Big 12 vs. ACC
  • Sun Bowl (El Paso): ACC vs. Pac-12
  • Belk Bowl (Charlotte): SEC vs. ACC
  • Music City Bowl (Nashville): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
  • Texas Bowl (Houston): Big 12 vs. SEC
  • Pinstripe Bowl (New York City): Big Ten vs. ACC
  • Independence Bowl (Shreveport, La.): SEC vs. ACC
  • Cactus Bowl (Tempe): Big 12 vs. Pac-12
  • Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit): Big Ten vs. ACC
  • Heart of Dallas Bowl: Big Ten vs. Conference USA
  • San Francisco Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
  • Hawaii Bowl: Mountain West vs. Conference USA
  • Dollar General Bowl (Mobile): MAC vs. Sun Belt
  • Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth): Big 12 vs. American
  • Birmingham Bowl: SEC vs. American
  • Potato Bowl (Boise): Mountain West vs. MAC
  • Bahamas Bowl: Conference USA vs. MAC
  • Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa): American vs. Conference USA
  • Frisco Bowl (Texas): American vs. at-large
  • Boca Raton Bowl: American vs. Conference USA
  • New Orleans Bowl: Sun Belt vs. Conference USA
  • Cure Bowl (Orlando): American vs. Sun Belt
  • Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, Ala.): Sun Belt vs. MAC
  • Las Vegas Bowl: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
  • New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque): Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jerry Jeudy, Travis Etienne and Greedy Williams

Follow Steve Petrella on Twitter
@steve_petrella

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OPEN
CURR
# BETS
PSU
RUTG
48.5
+26
49.5
+27
MSU
NEB
49
+2
49
+2
IOWA
ILL
59
+15.5
58.5
+16
LIB
AUB
59.5
-28.5
59.5
-28.5
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
57.5
-27.5
ARK
MSST
45.5
-18.5
46.5
-20.5
CIT
BAMA
--
--
--
--
MASS
UGA
62
-44
63
-44
OSU
MD
58
+17.5
58
+16.5
BC
FSU
49.5
+1
49
+2
IDHO
FLA
59
-39.5
59
-39.5
NCST
LOU
62.5
+14.5
63.5
+15
MTSU
UK
45
-13
45
-13.5
WVU
OKST
69.5
+5
71
+4.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
51
-44
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
59
-7.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
68.5
-36
IND
MICH
53
-27.5
53.5
-27.5
ORST
WASH
57.5
-31
57.5
-33
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
60.5
-10
ISU
TEX
51
-3
50.5
-3
SYR
ND
62.5
-10
62.5
-9
SDSU
FRES
45
-16
44
-15