2020 Heisman Odds Tracker: DeVonta Smith Could Become First WR To Win Award Since 1991
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6).
2020 Heisman Odds
Below are DraftKings‘ Heisman Trophy odds. The Heisman ceremony will take place Tuesday, Jan. 5 at 7 p.m. ET.
|DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama||-560 [Bet Now]|
|Mac Jones, QB, Alabama||+500 [Bet Now]|
|Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson||+750 [Bet Now]|
|Kyle Trask, QB, Florida||+5000 [Bet Now]|
For those new to sports betting, +200 odds mean a $100 bet would win $200 (in addition to the $100 risked).
Last updated January 4.
January 4 update
DeVonta Smith has now been the Heisman favorite since the SEC Championship game, but his odds keep getting shorter with each passing day.
Smith sat at -305 as recently as Dec. 30. Now, he finds himself as an even heavier favorite at -560.
The -305 mark Smith was at before the new year implied a 75.31% chance that he would win college football’s most coveted individual award. His implied odds are now at 84.85%.
To put this change into context, here’s a blurb we wrote about his Heisman chances from Nov. 15:
“The top non-quarterback on the odds board remains Crimson Tide wide receiver DeVonta Smith, but he dropped from +2200 to +6600 after Alabama’s game against LSU was canceled.”
The fact that Smith — who has proven to be such a dominant player in recent weeks — once sat at 66-1 odds is hard to fathom. Except for when you look at how wide receivers have fared in the Heisman race in the past.
The last wide receiver to win the Heisman was Michigan’s Desmond Howard in 1991 — exactly 30 years ago.
That year, Howard put up a stat line of 1,125 yards from scrimmage, 19 receiving touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, and two return touchdowns.
Smith has impressed in a similar way this year, garnering 1,647 yards from scrimmage, 20 receiving touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and one return touchdown.
Winning the award would put Smith in a very small group of college football players; since 2000, 17 quarterbacks have won the Heisman.
His quarterback, Mac Jones, recently fell from +250 to +500, giving his implied odds an 11.90% drop.
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence — who was once a relatively heavy favorite to take home the award — can be found at +750, down from +600.
December 30 update
DeVonta Smith saw his lead atop the Heisman Trophy odds board increase after claiming the Associated Press’ Player of the Year award.
Smith received 26 of the 49 first-place votes, with Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence each getting nine. Jones finished in second place ahead of Lawrence.
December 27 update
There have been a few small changes since the four Heisman Trophy finalists were announced on Dec. 24.
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence jumped from +450 to +400, while Florida quarterback Kyle Trask went from +2500 to +2000.
Despite those slight changes, ther was no movement toward the top of the board. Alabama wide receover DeVonta Smith remains the favorite at -200, and Crimson Tide quarterback Mac Jones sits right behind him at +200.
December 24 update
On Christmas Eve night, the Heisman Trophy Award selection committee revealed its four finalists:
- Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (-200)
- Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (+200)
- Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+450)
- Florida quarterback Kyle Trask (+2500)
Crimson Tide running back Najee Harris finished fifth in Heisman Trophy balloting and will not be joining his team mates Smith and Jones among the group of finalists. Harris reported the fourth-best odd to win (+1600) as of Dec. 20.
Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence’s Heisman stock continues to rise following Clemson’s dismantling of Notre Dame in last weekend’s ACC Championship game. Since Dec. 20, Lawrence’s odds have risen from +1000 to +450 as of writing.
December 20 update
We have a new favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
After hauling in 15 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns in an SEC Championship victory over Florida, Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith now sits at the top of odds boards for college football’s most coveted individual trophy.
Smith has now topped 100 yards receiving in seven of his 11 games this year, going over the 150-yard six times and passing 200 yards twice. He has also caught multiple touchdowns six times this season.
In the seven games after teammate Jaylen Waddle went down with an injury, Smith has amassed 1,028 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.
Following Smith on the list is Crimson Tide quarterback Mac Jones, who has been considered a top favorite with Florida’s Kyle Trask in recent weeks.
With Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Tide running back Najee Harris rounding out the top four, it’s looking increasingly likely that an Alabama player will win the Heisman.
If Smith were to take home the award, he would become the first non-quarterback to do so since Alabama’s Derrick Henry in 2015. Furthermore, he would be the first wide receiver to win since Notre Dame’s Tim Brown in 1987.
December 13 update
Ahead of Saturday’s SEC title game, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones and receiver DeVonta Smith have leaped over Florida’s Kyle Trask over at DraftKings. Trask’s Gators suffered a shocking loss to LSU that saw the senior throw for 474 yards and two touchdowns, although there were also the two interceptions he threw.
Jones and Smith, meanwhile, didn’t have to be at their best for Alabama to clobber Arkansas, 52-3. Jones was 24-of-29 passing for 208 yards without a touchdown or interception. Smith had just three catches for 22 yards. All six of Alabama’s offensive touchdowns came on the ground to go along with the Tide’s 216 rushing yards.
Trask still boasts an amazing 40 touchdowns and just five interceptions, but being a star quarterback on the best team in the country has given Jones an edge. Trask needs a big game against Alabama to make a statement that he deserves the Heisman over Jones or Smith.
Ian Book and Trevor Lawrence are tied at +900 ahead of Notre Dame and Clemson’s matchup for the ACC championship. A strong performance for either quarterback could move them up into the category of the three SEC stars.
December 10 update
With Kyle Trask and Mac Jones firmly entrenched atop the Heisman odds board, it’s time to look forward to the SEC title game. That matchup between Florida and Alabama will go a long way in deciding what the College Football Playoff looks like, but more importantly, it will likely decide the Heisman Trophy.
Trask has been incredible this season with 38 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Jones, meanwhile, has just 27 touchdowns to three picks while leading the best offense in college football.
Jones will be targeting wide receiver DeVonta Smith early and often against Florida. Smith has 80 catches for 1,305 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. He has those totals in nine games, and all three surpass his numbers from 2019.
December 6 update
After listing 11 players on the Heisman Trophy odds board last week, DraftKings has cut its list down to six.
Because of that change, there were major shifts in the odds board. But there were also changes among those who remain.
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, who was once one of the main favorites to win the award, dropped to the bottom of the list. He now sits at +2500 after being at +1000 last week.
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book saw a change as well, but it went in the other direction. After standing at +2200 last week, he now finds himself at +1600.
Meanwhile, Florida signal-caller Kyle Trask went from -110 to -125 at the top of the board after throwing for 400 yards and at least four touchdowns for the third time this season.
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith remains is now the only non-quarterback on the board, and he jumped from +5000 to +2200 after hauling in eight passes for 231 yards and three touchdowns against LSU on Saturday.
Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence — who have been favorites to win the Heisman at different points this season — are the other two on the list.
November 29 update
Another week, another three-touchdown performance without an interception from Kyle Trask.
The Florida quarterback jumped from +125 last week to -110, becoming the only player in the nation who isn’t available at plus money.
The big drop in this week’s odds came from Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, who fell from +175 to +1000 after the Buckeyes’ game against Illinois was canceled.
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book, meanwhile, saw a significant increase in his odds, as he went from +8000 to +2200. Book threw for 279 yards and a touchdown on 23-of-33 passing in a 31-17 win over North Carolina.
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (+5000) is now the non-quarterback with the shortest odds after teammate Najee Harris dropped to +8000.
November 22 update
We have a new frontrunner in the Heisman race yet again.
Florida quarterback Kyle Trask now has the shortest odds of the bunch at +125, knocking back former leaders Justin Fields (+175) of Ohio State and Trevor Lawrence (+900) of Clemson.
Trask rose to the top after throwing for 383 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions against Vanderbilt on Saturday. Trask now has thrown for 2,554 yards and 31 touchdowns on the season compared to only three picks.
Fields fell after tossing three interceptions against Indiana last week, while Lawrence didn’t play after Clemson’s game against Florida State was postponed.
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones now sits at +250, down from+200, after spending recent weeks near the top of the board.
Crimson Tide running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith are now tied for the shortest odds of any non-quarterback on the board, sitting at +5000.
November 15 update
Trevor Lawrence is back at the top.
After a week off, the Clemson quarterback joined Ohio State signal-caller Justin Fields as a co-favorite at +175. Lawrence, who reached -167 odds at one point in the season, sat at +450 last week.
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones keeps the race tight with the third-shortest odds, moving to +200 this week.
Florida’s Kyle Trask jumped to +500 after throwing six touchdowns without an interception against Arkansas on Saturday. Trask has now tossed at least four touchdowns in every game this season.
The top non-quarterback on the odds board remains Crimson Tide wide receiver DeVonta Smith, but he dropped from +2200 to +6600 after Alabama’s game against LSU was canceled.
November 8 update
For the second week in a row, we have a new favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields took the top spot from Alabama signal-caller Mac Jones after Week 10.
Fields completed 24-of-28 passes for 314 yards and five touchdowns in the Buckeyes’ 49-27 win over Rutgers on Saturday. The Georgia transfer now has 11 touchdowns and only 11 incompletions through three games.
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book made a significant jump after beating Clemson, as he rose from +8000 to +2000 — the fifth-shortest odds on the board.
Florida’s Kyle Trask also cut his odds by half, going from +1200 to +600 after the Gators toppled a top-five Georgia squad.
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith still holds the shortest odds of any non-quarterback, sitting at +2200.
November 3 update
We officially have a new Heisman frontrunner.
After Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19 game ahead of last week’s game against Boston College, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones took the spot at the top of the board.
Jones takes the shortest odds after completing 24-of-31 passes for 291 yards and four touchdowns without an interception.
Jones now sits at +125 up from +250, while Lawrence fell to +400 after sitting with a wide lead at -167.
Ohio State signal-caller Justin Fields also saw a solid increase this week, jumping to +150 after floating at +400 last week.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard saw a significant shift down the board, going from +4000 to +10000 after recording 72 yards rushing on 2.9 yards per carry in a loss to Texas.
October 27 update
Two non-quarterbacks have shot up the Heisman Trophy odds board after Week 8: Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith and Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard.
Smith’s rise comes after fellow Crimson Tide wideout Jaylen Waddle fractured his ankle. Waddle sat at +800 — the shortest odds for any non-QB — before the week, while Smith was at +5000. Smith now sits at +2500 and owns the second-shortest odds of any non-QB behind teammate Najee Harris.
Hubbard, meanwhile, jumped to +4000 from +8000 after his 139-yard performance against Iowa State.
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence still sits at the top of the board as the clear favorite at -167, followed by Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (+250) and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (+400).
October 19 update
The NCAA Football video game may be defunct now, but Trevor Lawrence is making it look like it’s still up and running.
Lawrence jumped from +110 to -167 to win the Heisman Trophy after 404 yards and five touchdowns in Clemson’s 73-7 demolition of Georgia Tech in Week 7.
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones rose to +350 after downing then-No. 3 Georgia. The game also caused Bulldog quarterback Stetson Bennett to drop from +1000 to +3300.
Crimson Tide wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has the best odds of any non-quarterback at +800, while Alabama running back is next at +2500.
With the Big Ten opening play this week, five players from the conference sit inside the top 20: Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (+600), Ohio State running back Trey Sermon (+4000), Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford (+5000), Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan (+8000), and Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez (+10000).
October 13 update
Alabama is no stranger to the Heisman Trophy. Now, its players’ chances of taking home college football’s most coveted individual trophy are rising again.
Mac Jones, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, and DeVonta Smith all shot up the board after Alabama’s 63-48 victory over Ole Miss on Saturday.
Harris saw the biggest increase in odds, going from +4000 to +1600 after running for 206 yards and five touchdowns against the Rebels. Jones still has the shortest odds of any Crimson Tide player, jumping from +1000 to +500. Waddle now sits at +1000, and Smith is at +5000.
Florida quarterback Kyle Trask and Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger both took tumbles after Week 6 losses. Trask went from +700 to +1400, while Ehlinger dropped to +8000 from +5000.
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence now owns the top spot by himself at +110, but Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields still sits right behind him at +250.
October 7 update
Stetson Bennett has joined the Heisman race.
The Georgia quarterback made his first career start in Week 5 against Auburn and did not disappoint, throwing for 240 yards on 17-of-28 passing with a touchdown and no interceptions. Stetson also appeared in the Bulldogs’ Week 4 win over Arkansas, completing 20 of 29 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns. The Georgia native’s Heisman odds are currently +1400.
K.J. Costello‘s odds took a hit this week, as the Mississippi State QB tumbled to +4000 after throwing three interceptions in a loss to Arkansas. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger also took another notable drop from +2000 to +5000, while Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond fell all the way to +10000 after sitting at +2700 entering Week 5.
Ohio State QB Justin Fields and Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence remain atop the oddsboard at +250 heading into Week 6.
September 29 update
The weeks’ biggest winners — and losers — came from the SEC.
Florida quarterback Kyle Trask delivered an efficient and impressive 416-yard, six-touchdown in performance in the Gators’ victory over Ole Miss. Trask’s Heisman odds subsequently rose from +1800 to +500 after that single performance. His +8.4% week-over-week increase in implied probability was the highest among any Heisman contender in Week 4.
Not to be outdone, Mississippi State QB K.J. Costello also rose to national acclaim following his audacious 623-yard five-touchdown passing performance in the Bulldogs’ 44-34 upset over defending national champions LSU in Baton Rouge. Costello’s Heisman odds rose from relative obscurity at +3300 to +800 exiting Week 4 action. Costello now boasts the fourth-highest odds to take home college football’s most illustrious individual award.
Costello’s dueling partner, LSU QB Myles Brennan, lost substantial ground in the Heisman race following the Tigers’ defeat. His odds fell from +2000 to +10000 week-over-week. Joining Brennan among the week’s losers is Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler, whose odds fell from +600 to +3300 after the Sooners’ home loss to Kansas State. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger also witnessed a marked decline from +1000 to +2000 after failing to dispatch a below-average Red Raiders defense in regulation.
Once a trendy longshot earlier this season, Louisville QB Micale Cunningham’s Heisman odds fell from +3300 on Sept. 14 to +8000 on Sept. 21 after Miami dismantled the cardinals in Week 3. Louisville lost again last week in a hard-fought game against Pittsburgh, pushing the Cardinals to 1-2 on the season — and pushing Cunningham’s name completely off the Heisman Trophy oddsboard.
Other notable players who followed Cunningham off the oddsboard include Louisville running back Javian Hawkins, LSU wide receiver Racey McMath and Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks.
September 21 update
The Big Ten’s decision to return to play has resulted in sweeping changes across the Heisman Trophy Winner futures oddsboard.
At the top of the board, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+175 to +250), Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler (+400 to +600), Texas QB Sam Ehlinger (+600 to +1000) and Clemson running back Travis Etienne (+1400 to +2500) experienced a combined decline of 21.5% in their implied probability to win the Heisman Trophy.
That decline is directly attributable to the installation of Ohio State QB Justin Fields (+250), who joins Lawrence as the co-favorite to win the award. Among newly added Big Ten Players, Fields hold a commanding edge over Penn State QB Sean Clifford, Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez and Wisconsin QB Jack Coan, each of whom now slots in at +8000 (1.23% implied probability to win).
The other major development in the Heisman Trophy futures market is the ongoing QB battle at Georgia. For the majority of the offseason, Wake Forest transfer QB Jamie Newman was considered the overwhelming favorite to earn the starting job. Then on Sept. 2, Newman chose to opt out of the 2020 season to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Immediately, stock for USC transfer JT Daniels shot through the roof, climbing as high as +1000 as of Sept. 14. But since then, Daniels still has not been cleared for contact, and redshirt freshman D’Wan Mathis has earned extended opportunity practicing with the team’s first string.
Mathis’ impressive play has resulted in a full-blown QB battle in Athens, and speculation runs rampant that Mathis may earn the job outright. Subsequently, Daniels’ odds have fallen to +2000, while Mathis has risen to +4000 — even higher than established stars like Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard (+5000). DraftKings sportsbook didn’t even list Mathis on its Heisman board as of one week ago.
September 14 update
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+175) consolidated his position as the clear-cut favorite to win the Heisman Trophy following the Tigers’ 37-13 win over Wake Forest on Saturday. Lawrence went 22-for-28 passing for 351 yards and three total TD in just over two quarters of action.
Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler (+400) was one of the week’s biggest movers. He passed for 290 yards and four touchdowns, leading the Sooners to a 41-0 halftime lead over Missouri State before head coach Lincoln Riley pulled the Oklahoma starters. Rattler’s move from +700 to +400 represents a 7.5% increase in his implied probability to win the Heisman Trophy.
Lawrence and Rattler notwithstanding, no player did more to improve his Heisman candidacy than Texas QB Sam Ehlinger. He amassed 438 total yards and five touchdowns in the Longhorns’ 59-3 rout of UTEP on Saturday. His Heisman Trophy odds moved from +2500 to +600 — a staggering 10.44% increase in his implied probability to win.
In order to take home college football’s most esteemed individual award, Ehlinger and the Longhorns likely must win the Big 12 regular season, which indeed is no small task. Texas has looming dates against Oklahoma (neutral-site) on October 10 and must travel to Stillwater to play No. 11 Oklahoma State on October 31. Nonetheless, Ehlinger’s performance in Week 1 has placed him squarely in the Heisman Trophy conversation.
Here’s a quick rundown of the week’s other notable risers and fallers:
- Miami QB D’Eriq King falls from +800 to +1800 (5.85% decrease in implied probability).
- North Carolina QB Sam Howell falls from +2000 to +3300 (1.82% decrease in implied probability).
- Notre Dame QB Ian Book falls from +2000 to +4000 (2.32% decrease in implied probability).
- Louisville QB Micale Cunningham improves from +5000 to +3300 (0.96% increase in implied probability).