The Air Force Falcons take on the San Jose State Spartans in San Jose, California. Kickoff is set for 6:00 p.m. EST on Fox Sports 1.
San Jose State is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 67 points.
Here’s my Air Force vs. San Jose State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 8, 2025.
Air Force vs San Jose State Prediction
- Air Force vs. San Jose State Pick: Over 65.5 (-110, bet365)
My San Jose State vs. Air Force best bet is on the Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs San Jose State Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Spartans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Air Force vs San Jose State point spread: San Jose State -5.5 (-110 ), Air Force +5.5 (-110).
- Air Force vs San Jose State over/under: 65.5 (-112o / -110u).
- Air Force vs San Jose State moneyline: Air Force +180, San Jose State -220.
Air Force vs San Jose State Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: New Era for Air Force Football
This isn't your grandpa's Air Force Falcons team.
Yes, they still play slow (114th nationally in tempo) and keep the ball on the ground (third in rush plays rate), but they’re one of the most efficient possession offenses in the country.
Air Force ranks 11th in Success Rate, sixth in Finishing Drives, and crucially ninth in standard down rate — meaning the Falcons are almost always ahead of schedule and rarely forced into obvious passing situations. They don’t need to play fast because they don't waste downs.
Their run game still generates steady chunk gains, and avoiding mistakes is a big part of the formula (25th in Havoc Allowed). They might not be explosive every snap, but because they extend drives and finish in scoring range, Air Force consistently turns possessions into points.
Defensively, though, this team has fallen off a cliff.
Air Force ranks 132nd nationally in Success Rate allowed, 125th in Defensive Finishing Drives, and 135th in Explosiveness allowed — one of the worst big-play defenses in the country. The Falcons can't generate pressure (132nd Havoc), and when teams get into space, there’s very little resistance.
This is no longer the slow, suffocating Air Force defense of past years. Opponents have scored early and quickly, forcing the Falcons into shootouts.
Air Force’s offense is still built to score, but its defense forces it into higher-scoring game scripts than people assume.
San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: High-Octane Offense to Target Falcons' Weaknesses
San José State is well-suited to take advantage of the Air Force’s defensive weaknesses.
The Spartans rank 20th nationally in Explosiveness, and that’s the exact area where Air Force is weakest.
When San José State gets single coverage in space or isolates linebackers in the run game, they have multiple ways to produce 15-to-40 yard plays.
The Spartans don’t have to be methodical — they hit chunk gains.
In particular, look for the Sartans to keep the ball in the air. The Falcons rank second-to-last in Pass Success Rate allowed, while the Spartans throw the ball at the fourth-highest rate nationally.
And unlike the Falcons, the Spartans play at a fast tempo, ranking 27th in plays per minute.
On defense, San José State doesn’t have the answers to slow Air Force’s run efficiency.
The Spartans rank 96th in Success Rate allowed, 112th in Explosiveness allowed, and 100th in Havoc. They get moved off the ball and don’t create backfield disruption.
Against a team like Air Force, which lives off staying ahead of the sticks, that’s a serious problem.
Air Force vs San Jose State Pick, Betting Analysis
Air Force’s slow tempo can scare bettors away from overs, but tempo matters less when a team is overwhelmingly efficient.
The Falcons sustain drives, finish them, and leave very few wasted possessions.
Meanwhile, their defense is performing at one of the lowest levels in the country — and is especially vulnerable to the big-play profile San José State brings.
San José State doesn’t need to win the time of possession battle. The Spartans need a handful of clean pockets and open-field touches — and against this defense, they will get them.
The kicker here: Both teams rank inside the top 35 nationally in Over-hit percentage this season.
This is not a market fluke — it’s a reflection of how their games actually play out.
Expect Air Force to score through sustained drives while San José State scores with explosives.
Pick: Over 65.5 (-110, bet365)
