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College football Week 5 has arrived, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of 6 experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Eastern Michigan vs. UMass on Saturday afternoon and Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia Southern on Saturday night.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 6 'dogs pay out at over 5-1.
Let's take a look at our Week 5 college football predictions and NCAAF picks in our Group of 6 moneyline underdog parlay for Saturday, Oct. 3.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Week 5 College Football Predictions, ML Underdog Parlay
- Eastern Michigan ML +195 vs. UMass
- Coastal Carolina ML +115 vs. Georgia Southern
Parlay Odds: +534 (bet365)
Eastern Michigan +195 vs. UMass
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 49.5 -106o / -114u | +195 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 49.5 -106o / -114u | -240 |
I’ll take Eastern Michigan at nearly 2-1.
Around the BBOC HQ water cooler, it’s been all UMass, UMass, UMass.
The Minutemen already cashed their season win total over and sit fourth in the MAC futures market at 8-1. They’ve got Pop Watson, a sawed-off, dual-threat quarterback with huge stats. I get the hype because he’s everything G6 football is supposed to be.
But how much is that Rutgers upset actually worth? Outside of that early shocker, UMass’ resume is thin with two FCS wins and a victory over Sacramento State.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks every FBS program: Rutgers at 75, Sacramento State at 153, Sacred Heart at 257 and Stonehill at 335. This was not a murderers’ row for the Minutemen.
I always like a checklist for potential upsets, and Eastern Michigan has it all.
A head coach I like? Check. Chris Creighton is the real deal in MAC spots. Since 2014, he’s the third-most profitable MAC coach as an underdog, cashing nearly 59% of the time with 27 outright upsets, tied for fifth-most over the last 12 seasons.
That’s more than two upsets a year. You can hang your hat on Creighton showing up when his team is the underdog.
Quarterback? Check. I’m not swooning, but Noah Kim’s at least a B/B+ by MAC standards.
Last year when he faced the top MAC teams — Miami (OH), Western Michigan and Ohio — he tossed eight touchdown passes, added a rushing score and completed 61% of his throws. He kept them in those games.
Which brings me back to UMass. I don’t buy that it's as stout as its metrics suggest because of the quality of competition. Are the Minutemen really a top-25 pass defense with an elite pass rush, or have they been feasting on offensive lines that should be lining up for someone else?
So, I like Eastern Michigan to keep hanging around as a live upset candidate. With Creighton’s history, a competent QB and a UMass resume that looks thin under scrutiny, I think the Eagles can pull off an upset.
Pick: Eastern Michigan ML +195
Coastal Carolina +115 vs. Georgia Southern
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
By Joshua Nunn
I like Coastal Carolina at +115 against Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern’s defense has been awful the last couple of weeks, allowing 6.6 yards per play with basically no pass rush. The Eagles have recorded only two sacks over the past three weeks after racking up six in the opener against Charleston Southern.
Now, I always try to factor out the FCS gap because some teams inflate numbers against those opponents, but even with that caveat, this looks bad for the Eagles.
Coastal quarterback Deuce Bailey has been solid enough with 1,039 passing yards and a 10:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Chanticleers also have five receivers who can make explosive plays, and that matters a lot when you’re facing a defense that can’t consistently get off the field.
Coastal isn’t an elite team, but it has played well in recent weeks against Delaware and Liberty.
Matchups matter here. Coastal’s offense should be able to move the ball against what’s likely the worst FBS defense it'll face all season.
On the other side, the Chants' red-zone defense has allowed touchdowns on 7-of-15 attempts this year and has held opponents scoreless on five trips into the red zone. I’m skeptical Georgia Southern’s offense will be efficient enough on the road to overcome that.
The scheduling context favors Coastal too. Georgia Southern has been in plenty of “play-up” spots, and its upcoming slate doesn’t get easier with James Madison, Old Dominion, a bye week and the Deeper Than Hate rivalry against Appalachian State.
Coastal wins this game, and it could do it convincingly. I’ll take the Chants +115 at home.
Pick: Coastal Carolina ML +115
