The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, Nov. 29. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. Auburn, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +190 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Auburn prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
Alabama vs Auburn Prediction
- Alabama vs. Auburn Pick: Over 46.5 · Josh Cuevas Anytime TD (+310)
My Auburn vs. Alabama best bet is on both teams to go over the total and Crimson Tide tight end Josh Cuevas to score a touchdown. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Editor's Note: Alabama tight end Josh Cuevas has been ruled out for Alabama's game against Auburn.
Alabama vs Auburn Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -230 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +190 |
- Alabama vs Auburn Spread: Alabama -6, Auburn +6
- Alabama vs Auburn Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Alabama vs Auburn Moneyline: Alabama -230, Auburn +190
Alabama vs Auburn College Football Betting Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Air-Driven and Road-Tested
Since the pandemic, there have been two Iron Bowl editions played at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Neither contest was easy for Alabama, which won both by a combined five points despite those Auburn teams having just six wins.
The road has been unkind to the Crimson Tide this season, with a loss to Florida State and three other wins by a combined eight points.
Alabama has been unable to establish any kind of ground game offensively, as running back Jam Miller averages just 2.2 yards after first contact.
The bulk of the offense has come from the accurate arm of quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson ranks 25th among all FBS quarterbacks in On-Target Rate, signaling his ability to hit receivers in stride.
Alabama ranks top-10 nationally in Passing Success Rate, with wide receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams proving to be lethal at the wideout and slot positions.
Tight end Josh Cuevas has also become a focal piece of the passing offense over the past few games, generating a season-high seven targets against Oklahoma in Week 12.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack is a candidate for head coaching jobs at various Power 4 programs. He leads an Alabama defense that ranks top-15 nationally in Success Rate allowed.
The Crimson Tide’s 3-3-5 has been excellent in coverage and tackling grades while posting a rank of 14th in Quality Drives allowed.
The areas of concern for the Tide have been opponent rush explosives. A lack of consistent pass rush has generated scrambling opportunities for opposing quarterbacks on bailout third downs.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: Explosive but Inconsistent
Auburn has played two games since firing head coach Hugh Freeze.
The Tigers went 1-1 in those games with defensive coordinator DJ Durkin serving as the interim head coach, losing to Vanderbilt in overtime and dominating FCS Mercer last week.
Offensive coordinator Derrick Nix took over play-calling for the Vanderbilt game, but the Tigers failed to create a single methodical or explosive drive.
Auburn’s two rushing touchdowns came from quarterback Ashton Daniels, but a failure in standard downs created an average third-down distance of 8.1 yards to go.
Those offensive failures were nowhere to be found in the 62-17 rout of Mercer in Week 13, as Auburn gained 75% of available yards.
Quarterback Deuce Knight lit up the Bears for six all-purpose touchdowns, while racking up 152 rushing yards and 239 passing yards.
The Auburn defense continues to be one of the best in the nation against the rush, ranking second in Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
The Tigers have shut down any opponent using counter, man or outside-zone run concepts.
Passing explosives have been a sensitive area against Auburn's nickel secondary, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA allowed. The secondary has been leaky at times, owning a bottom-25 rank in broken and missed tackles allowed.
Auburn’s defense has been sturdy in standard downs but falls to 88th in Success Rate when opponents get behind the chains.
Alabama vs Auburn Pick, Betting Analysis
There's no expectation that either rushing attack will produce against the opposing defense.
Alabama has struggled to generate any success on the ground and should find little traction against Auburn's front.
Meanwhile, the Tide have dominated opposing rushing attacks, but the insertion of Knight into the Auburn offense should be a significant issue for the Crimson Tide.
Mobile quarterbacks have destroyed Alabama’s defense this season. South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Missouri's Beau Pribula and Florida State's Tommy Castellanos have all run for a score against the Tide.
The good news for Alabama is that only 33 of Knight’s rushing yards last week came on three designed attempts. If the Crimson Tide can contain him in the pocket, there won't be many options for the Auburn offense.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings pin this game at Alabama -6, giving no value to the current market offerings.
However, the change at quarterback for Auburn will generate explosive scrambles against the Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide rank 127th in opponent rush explosives, a major concern against Knight’s dual-threat ability.
On the other side of the ball, expect Simpson to attack through the air after the Tide found limited success on the ground.
Auburn’s leaky secondary ranks 85th in creating a contested catch, an issue that will arise with Simpson’s accuracy. Look for both offenses to get into scoring position often, as the projected total for this game comes in at 52 points.
With Auburn's struggles in pass defense, a Cuevas anytime touchdown prop is also live.
Pick: Over 46.5 · Josh Cuevas Anytime TD (+310)
Alabama vs Auburn Betting Trends
