Army vs. Navy Model Predictions, Picks: The Surprising Bet to Make for Saturday’s Game

Army vs. Navy Model Predictions, Picks: The Surprising Bet to Make for Saturday’s Game article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: The Navy Midshipmen take the field

  • Army takes on Navy in Saturday college football action in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
  • While the over/under has become a mainstream bet, our model shows value on a side.
  • PJ Walsh explains where the value lies below.

Army vs. Navy Odds

Army Odds -7
Navy Odds +7
Over/Under 35
Date Saturday, Dec. 11
Time 3 p.m. ET
TV CBS

*Odds as of Saturday morning

By now, most college football bettors are aware of the service academy under trend, which has hit at an 81.6% clip since 2005 in games between Army, Navy and Air Force.

Because each of these three teams employs a run-heavy, triple-option offense, games become grind-it-out affairs will small chunks of yards and the clock constantly running.

In addition, Army, Navy and Air Force are uniquely qualified to stop the triple-option on the defensive side of the ball since they’re so familiar with it.

All of this adds up to lower-scoring games.

But as I mentioned above, betting unders in these matchups is now mainstream, and oddsmakers/the market has clearly adjusted.

The latest Army vs. Navy total of 35 is just one point off the lowest tracked by our Bet Labs software, which includes archived college football data since the start of the 2003 season.

This total has dropped since opening, so bettors are clearly backing the over/under trend again on Saturday, but according to The Action Network’s college football betting model, the smartest way to bet Army vs. Navy is actually via the spread.

Here’s the biggest edge for Army vs. Navy on Saturday afternoon.

Army vs. Navy Betting Model Prediction