Citrus Bowl PRO Projection: Model Shows Edge in Auburn vs. Northwestern (Friday, Jan. 1)

Citrus Bowl PRO Projection: Model Shows Edge in Auburn vs. Northwestern (Friday, Jan. 1) article feature image
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Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Nix

  • Northwestern is more than a field goal favorite over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl on Friday afternoon, but our model projections make the game much closer.
  • While it may not same like a huge edge at about two points, it crosses the key number of three.

Citrus Bowl Odds: Auburn vs. Northwestern

Auburn Odds +4
Northwestern Odds -4
Over/Under 43.5
PRO Projection NW -1.8 | 48.6
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Try PRO for FREE to unlock projections for every bowl game.

The New Year’s Six bowl games may technically have started Wednesday night, but the New Year’s Day bowl slate is the one that’s gotten attention from bettors for a few weeks.

It’s also one that’s been lighting up some of our PRO betting tools, including our model’s projections, at least in the case of the Auburn vs. Northwestern Citrus Bowl.

Note: Odds, data as of 7 p.m. ET Friday.

Projection grades for all of Friday’s games …

Georgia vs. Cincinnati: B

Notre Dame vs. Alabama: B-

Ohio State vs. Clemson: A-

Citrus Bowl Projection Edge

The betting market lists No. 14 Northwestern as a 3.5- to 4-point favorite, but our model isn’t quite so bullish on the Wildcats. In fact, it sees this game being much closer to a coin flip, favoring the Big Ten runner-up by just 1.8 points.

And while a difference of 2.2 points may not seem huge, it’s made far more important by the fact that in crosses through one of the most important numbers in football betting, given the frequency of 3-point final score margins.

That gives Auburn a B-graded betting edge, the third-highest remaining spread edge of bowl season.

PRO Projection edge: Auburn

Projection grades for all of Friday’s games …

Georgia vs. Cincinnati: B

Notre Dame vs. Alabama: B-

Ohio State vs. Clemson: A-
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