College football Week 4 has arrived, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of 6 experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for UAB vs. Navy on Friday night and Tulsa vs. Arkansas on Saturday night.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 6 'dogs pay out at over 9-1.
Let's take a look at our Week 4 college football predictions and NCAAF picks in our Group of 6 moneyline underdog parlay for Saturday, Sept. 26.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Week 4 College Football Predictions, ML Underdog Parlay
- UAB ML +215 vs. Navy
- Tulsa ML +220 vs. Arkansas
Parlay Odds: +940 (DraftKings)
UAB +215 vs. Navy
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -122 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -265 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 +100 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +215 |
By Joshua Nunn
UAB gets a prime-time Friday night spot, and it has earned it. The Blazers have covered on the road at Illinois and Louisiana, and beat ULM, so they’re rolling onto ESPN with some momentum.
Navy, meanwhile, has a question at QB: Braxton Woodson is out, so Jackson Gutierrez gets the nod. He showed a little spark against FAU when he came in late during the prevent defense portion of the game, but this is different.
Now, he has to run the offense all week and actually lead the troops. That’s a different test, especially on the road in front of a fired-up UAB crowd.
The Blazers defense has also been stout on early downs and has held opponents to 9-of-27 on third down the last couple of weeks. That’s a problem for Navy, which will live and die on third-down conversions this year.
In Navy's game against FAU, seven its their first eight possessions produced zero points. That’s not the buttoned-up Midshipmen offense we’re used to.
And defensively, Navy hasn’t impressed. It looked OK against Towson but got shredded by FAU. UAB should be able to move the ball, both on the ground and through the air. I expect Ryder Burton and the Blazers to test Navy’s secondary plenty.
The Mids' run defense numbers feel misleading thanks to the opponents they’ve faced, as Towson throws a fair amount and FAU barely runs. But UAB has a legit trio of backs in Rod Robinson II, Bam McReynolds and Ja'Vin Simpkins who will find space and move the sticks on the ground.
I expect UAB to bring its best effort and be in position to win late. I already have a play in the Action Network app on UAB +7.5, and I like the moneyline as well.
Pick: UAB ML +215
Tulsa +220 vs. Arkansas
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | +220 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | -270 |
I’m taking Tulsa +230.
Quarterback Baylor Hayes is likely out again, which hands the keys to Dexter Williams II. Williams essentially got a de facto preseason start against East Texas A&M and was efficient with no turnovers and three touchdown passes. It was the kind of game that calms bettors’ nerves.
That game matters because this pick rests on trusting Tulsa’s defense as much as believing in its offense.
Tulsa’s D has made opponents work all year. Oklahoma State managed only about 4.0 yards per attempt, and its backs were held to 3.4 yards per carry.
Yes, Sam Houston hit one absolute home run with a 94-yard touchdown that tilted the game, but strip that play out and Tulsa allowed only 222 yards the rest of the way and tightened up in the red zone to win.
That kind of complementary, bend-don’t-break defense travels.
Now look at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a beat-up team playing in a flat environment with the fans checked out.
A win here would be huge for the Golden Hurricane. It would mark their second Power 4 victory and give them legitimate wiggle room in the playoff picture in case they drop a game in American Conference play. Motivation matters, and Tulsa has it.
Matchup-wise, Arkansas looks shaky up front against the run. Plus, the Hogs will likely roll out two QBs in AJ Hill and KJ Jackson. On defense, they've struggled to stop the run, already allowing 10 touchdowns on the ground this season.
Tulsa, meanwhile, grades out top-15 in rushing, per PFF, and has a deep stable of backs. Williams adds a rushing element, too. Short-yardage and goal-line situations should favor Tulsa.
Arkansas is tired and exploitable against the run, and Tulsa has everything to play for.
Pick: Tulsa ML +220
