It's already Week 4 of the college football season.
While we don't have another top-10 matchup on the docket this week, we have a number of ranked matchups that will play a major role in how this season shakes out.
First, we'll start in Knoxville, where the No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in their second top-15 matchup in three weeks.
Then, we'll head to Gainesville, where the No. 21 Florida Gators take on a No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels team that will look to prove they're not in a hangover spot after downing former head coach Lane Kiffin last week.
To wrap things up, we'll move to the Big Ten, as the No. 20 Oregon Ducks head south to take on the No. 12 USC Trojans in a pivotal battle between former Pac-12 foes.
With so much to get to, let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 4 games on Saturday, September 26.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of Week 4 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas vs Tennessee Pick
Texas Longhorns
The No. 1 team in the nation — the Texas Longhorns — will look to escape one of the loudest environments in college football when they take the field at Neyland Stadium to face Tennessee.
Texas earned the right to be the top team in the nation after a massive fourth-quarter comeback in Week 2 against Ohio State. The Horns' defense dominated UTSA, setting up the first conference game of the season.
New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has improved the Longhorns in a few key areas. The 3-3-5 personnel has helped them rank among the top 30 in FBS in tackle grading, per PFF, with particular success against rush explosives.
Texas has been fantastic against teams looking to create chunk plays, allowing only two plays from scrimmage to exceed 20 yards this season.
The defense has had trouble creating a pass rush, as no defender has more than four pressures outside of interior talent Lance Jackson and edge rusher Colin Simmons.
Texas fans will be biting their nails in anticipation of Simmons' availability after he was on the sidelines of the UTSA game in a walking boot.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has wrinkles to iron out on the offensive side of the ball, as Texas is outside the top 100 in havoc allowed and EPA.
The Longhorns have had consistent struggles creating explosive plays on the ground despite the additions of running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers.
Each rusher has created just two attempts over 15 yards, while Brown has a low 2.1 yards after first contact.
The offensive line has failed to control the trench, ranking outside the top 90 in line yards and stuff rate.
The best news of the season — other than the victory over Ohio State — is the offense's ability to generate points in scoring position. In 21 offensive drives that have crossed the opponent's 40-yard line, Texas is averaging 5.1 points per trip.
Tennessee Volunteers
The health of star running back DeSean Bishop is the biggest question heading into the Volunteers' first SEC game of the season. Bishop was sidelined with a hip injury against Kennesaw State, but he later re-entered and exited the game with the same issue.
Head coach Josh Heupel remarked that the staff felt good about getting him on the field against Texas.
Since Tennessee hasn't exactly played groundbreaking offenses so far this season, the data points have been sparse for the defensive side of the ball. The Volunteers have the 104th strength of schedule after facing Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State.
The good news is the Vols have elite numbers against the pass from a success-rate perspective, along with a top-10 pass rush and tackle grade, per PFF.
Three linebackers have created two pass breakups apiece, while the team has collectively missed just 31 tackles.
The key player for the Volunteers is edge Tyree Weathersby, who's generating a team-leading nine pressures on 61 pass-rush attempts.
Texas vs Tennessee Prediction
There's injury news for both teams at key positions, as Simmons of Texas and running back Bishop must be monitored on the SEC availability report.
From a head coach's early-week presser reaction, Bishop will be on the field, but the news around Simmons is less clear. The loss of Texas' best havoc player at the edge position could give the Tennessee an extra second to throw.
Faizon Brandon has a pair of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays, but he's also provided more than 50 rushing yards on designed calls. As for the passing game in Heupel's wide split veer and shoot, Brandon has dominated teams using Cover 3 and Quarters from a success rate standpoint.
Against Cover 3, Brandon has posted nearly a half point of EPA per attempt with a 66% success rate. Texas is 71st in opponent pass explosives allowed and is averaging a negative EPA in its primary look, Cover 3.
Despite being undefeated and ranked as the top team in the country, quarterback Arch Manning doesn't have an impressive analytical sheet. The senior has five big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season.
What's more interesting is that all three of the mistakes have come against all three opponents.
The wide receiver unit hasn't helped the effort, already recording nine drops this season, up from 8% to 13.2% since last season. Cam Coleman is the only starting receiver without a drop, but his target share is on track to be the lowest of his career, dating back to two seasons at Auburn.
A play on Tennessee can't be based solely on the analytics because of its easy schedule. The Volunteers have done everything needed in those three victories, but the primary handicap is a Texas team with numerous potholes in the stat sheet.
Tennessee has been stellar in defending the pass, creating havoc and generating a pass rush so far.
All of those areas should be problematic to a Texas offense that has yet to find a productive flow. Without the ability to create chunk yardage on rushing attempts, the Volunteers are sure to double Coleman and pressure Manning.
Look for Bishop to ground and pound a Texas defensive front that's outside the top 40 in numerous ground-based analytics.
On the Longhorns' defense, keep tabs on Simmons health leading up to the game, as pressure against a freshman quarterback in Brandon is crucial.
Neyland Stadium will be one of the toughest places Texas will play all season, especially when it comes to getting the quarterback and receivers on the same page.
Pick: Tennessee +5.5
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Ole Miss vs Florida Pick
Ole Miss Rebels
The potential for a letdown spot following Ole Miss's win over LSU is immense.
The Lane Kiffin saga ended with a victory for the Rebels, with a turnover sealing the game as a last laugh for head coach Pete Golding's team.
The Week 3 rivalry had been hyped since the last College Football Playoff, when Kiffin abandoned his roster and program for the greener pastures of Baton Rouge.
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss caught fire, though, throwing two touchdowns and more than 360 passing yards.
The defense did enough to stave off LSU's comeback. The Tigers were shell-shocked and ended the first half with just a single score, partly due to the crowd at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Ole Miss limited LSU to no explosive drives and a low 27% Success Rate in 26 passing-down attempts.
The biggest issue that plagued the box score in previous weeks persisted in Week 3, as the Rebels missed 18 tackles, bringing the season total to 53.
Florida Gators
New head coach Jon Sumrall has Florida humming three weeks into the season.
A trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium saw the Gators in full control, as they never trailed in a 44-39 victory over Auburn.
The defense harassed the Tigers consistently, recording nine tackles for loss while allowing just a single explosive drive. EDGE Emmanuel Oyebadejo and linebacker Jayden Woods combined for 11 pressuresfor a Florida defense that ranks top-10 in Havoc.
Quarterback Aaron Philo kept the Buster Faulkner offense moving, more than doubling the national average in methodical drive rate.More than half of Florida's offensive possessions lasted for 10-plus plays or averaged at least 10 yards per play.
Running back Jadan Baugh continues to be the bell-cow in the backfield, racking up 162 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The junior now owns eight touchdowns on 55 attempts this season, forcing 30 missed tackles while averaging 4.6 yards before first contact.
Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction
The biggest issue for Florida has been penalties,ranking 131st at 88.3 yards per game. Another issue has been controlling the line of scrimmage on defense, as it ranks 136th in Stuff Rate through three games.
The good news for the Gators is Ole Miss' lack of rush efficiency and explosiveness. With running back Kewan Lacy consideredquestionablewith an injury, the Rebels will be at a disadvantage on the ground against the Gators.
Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will create highlights with receivers Deuce Alexander, Horatio Fields and Traylon Ray. The Gators' pass defense ranks 21st in PFF grading, sitting just inside the top 50 in EPA allowed.
Ole Miss may be one-dimensional on offense, but Chambliss has had success against Florida's preferred Cover 3 look.
The biggest edge comes in the Gators' offense against a Rebels defense that struggles to defend the pass. Ole Miss sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.
Nearly every opponent on the schedule has produced methodical drives above the national average, aided by Ole Miss' 126th-ranked tackling.
The Faulkner offense has been nearly flawless at Florida,ranking top-10 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings project this line at Florida -4, giving the Gators a small edge in the market. The total also has some value at or below the key number 59.
There are major advantages for both offenses in scoring position, as turnovers and penalties may be the only hurdles to a high-scoring game.
Pick: Florida -3 · Over 59 or Better
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Oregon vs USC Pick
Oregon Ducks
No team needed a get-healthy game more than Oregon in Week 3. An 84-0 demolition of Portland State provided all the statistics a team could want, but the mental health of the roster needed a clear reset.
The Ducks stumbled into the 2026 season with a surprise effort from Boise State. Despite a post-game win expectancy of 99%, Oregon struggled to create space against the Broncos, but the wide receivers did enough in the second half to secure a victory.
The bottom of the boat fell out against Oklahoma State in Week 2, a no-doubt victory for the Pokes. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning admitted mistakes on fourth down, going 0-for-3 on top of a 5-for-14 effort on third down.
The criticism has been justified for an Oregon team expected to compete for a National Championship under two new coordinators. Considered the most experienced defensive line in the country, the Ducks rank 32nd in pass rush and 75th in Stuff Rate.
The offensive line also has room for blame, as quarterback Dante Moore has seen 20 pressures this season. The future NFL signal-caller has seen his pressure-to-sack ratio jump from 16% in 2025 to 30% this season.
If there has been good news, it comes in the secondary.
Cornerbacks Na’eem Offord and Ify Obidegwu have combined for four pass breakups, good enough to place the Ducks at 14th in PFF coverage grading.
With Oklahoma State and quarterback Drew Mestemaker on the schedule, Oregon still ranks as the 15th-best defense in opponent EPA allowed.
USC Trojans
Small cracks in the USC box scores turned into a crevasse in Week 3. Playing in their fourth consecutive game, the Trojans hopped time zones with hopes of eliminating past East Coast travel ghosts.
USC traveled to Rutgers in Week 3, facing a team that suffered embarrassing losses to UMass and Boston College earlier in the season.
The Trojans escaped with a one-possession victory, but the defense allowed 460 yards and four touchdowns in five Scarlet Knight trips into the red zone.
Rutgers utilized wide receiver KJ Duff in full. Duff commanded 13 targets and responded by putting up 86 receiving yards and a score.
A couple of key plays kept USC from its first loss, including a 99-yard pick-six by safety Prophet Brown and an early interception that led to a drive starting on the Rutgers 24-yard line.
San Jose State and Louisiana also put points on the board in the Coliseum.
The Spartans averaged six yards per play and scored enough in garbage time to cover the spread.
The Ragin' Cajuns were a different story, outgaining USC in yards per play with an average of nearly 7.0 while almost posting a touchdown every trip inside the Trojans' 40-yard line.
Oregon vs USC Prediction
The biggest question for Oregon is whether an 84-0 victory over an FCS school is enough to get every player on the same page.
Oklahoma State linebackers identified that Moore was tipping rush or pass plays with his footwork, an issue that was resolved before the Portland State game.
If the Ducks return to full explosiveness on the offensive side of the football, the Trojans defense could have a long Saturday.
USC's defense has regressed under coordinator Gary Patterson, falling outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and Pass EPA allowed. The Trojans also sit in the bottom 20 in Havoc, a metric of tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles and passes defensed.
Through four games, the Trojans have generated just seven pass breakups. If those numbers hold true, Moore could have a big passing day with proper fundamentals pre-snap.
Both Evan Stewart and Dakorien Moore have been elite at 2.5 yards per route run, and the loss of Jeremiah McClellan to a broken foot opens the door for a number of blue-chip freshman wide receivers.
USC is sure to get its offensive shots in with quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has already posted a 12:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Despite the big touchdown tally, the senior has seen a dip in big-time throw rate, even with less pressure and fewer drops. Maiava has his worst Success Rate and EPA against quarters coverage, the primary zone look from the Ducks defense this season.
Action Network projects Oregon as a 5.5-point favorite in the Coliseum in Week 4.
There are a number of indicators pointing up, primarily a fix to Moore’s footwork that could hide offensive plays.
The Ducks defense has also been one of the best in the country at limiting explosive passes, an element USC football has relied on to create scoring opportunities.
With the Trojans lacking in rush explosives and Oregon limiting pass explosives, look for the Ducks to be back in the Big Ten — and potentially the national title — picture.
Pick: Oregon -3 or Better
