Notre Dame vs. Duke Odds, Betting Pick & Preview (Saturday, Sept. 12)

Notre Dame vs. Duke Odds

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Although David Cutcliffe and Brian Kelly are two of the longest-tenured coaches in the FBS, the theme of this game will be 'new.'

And speaking of 'new,' check out our brand new CFB PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame's Tommy Rees was promoted from interim offensive coordinator to the full-time role after a dominating victory over Iowa State in the Camping World Bowl. Reese's one-game sample as the Fighting Irish's interim offensive play-caller led to fewer plays and a heavier dose of rush attempts than Notre Dame's 2019 averages under Reese's predecessor, Chip Long.

Now, he will be responsible for orchestrating a 2020 game plan that may lean more heavily on the running game. Quarterback Ian Book will have a fresh set of receiving targets this season following the departures of Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet and Chris Finke via graduation or the NFL Draft. Those three weapons accounted for 242 of Ian Book's 2019 passing targets and 23 receiving touchdowns.

Duke Blue Devils

On the opposing sideline, Duke head coach David Cutcliffe will call offensive plays for the first time since 2007. The Blue Devils will look to re-establish the run with a new offensive line coach after passing on 54% of their plays out of 11 personnel in 2019.

Duke must also replace redshirt senior quarterback and 2019 team captain Quentin Harris, who started all 12 games last season. Thankfully for the Blue Devils, they didn't have to search very far to find Harris' replacement.

Quarterback Chase Brice transferred from Clemson in February, promptly beating out Gunnar Holmberg and Chris Katrenick for Week 1 starting duties. You may remember Brice for saving the Clemson Tigers' season in 2018:

In addition to Brice, Duke also welcomes three offensive linemen, a few defensive starters, a new kicker and a new punter via the transfer portal.

The resulting collection of returning Blue Devils and miscellaneous transfers must now contend against an Irish defense that ranked 28th in success rate in 2019.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Given the sheer magnitude of personnel turnover for both teams, plus the installation of new offensive play-callers and questions at the skill positions, I expect some growing pains for both offenses.  As a result, my preferred position is on the under for this matchup.

The Bet: Under 54.5

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