College Football Bowl Projections for Week 9: Brett McMurphy’s Updated Predictions & Projected Spreads
David Madison/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Dan Lanning (center) and the Oregon Ducks.
Jacksonville State: come on down. Welcome to my Week 9 bowl projections.
This second year transitioning from FCS to FBS has been a challenge for Jacksonville State. Like James Madison, Jacksonville State is not eligible for a conference title, and the NCAA doesn’t even recognize either team in the its official statistical database. NCAA? No Clue At All.
Well, I'm on board the Jacksonville State and James Madison bowl bandwagons. Last week, I included the undefeated Dukes (7-0) in my projections, and I’m adding the Gamecocks (6-2) to my Week 9 projections this week.
There's just one small catch: neither team can play in a bowl this season unless there are not enough six-win teams to fill all 82 slots. But I don't believe there will be enough teams with six wins. We shall see.
With five weeks left in the regular season, there are 30 bowl-eligible teams, not including Jacksonville State and James Madison. I’m projecting 78 teams will eventually reach six wins. That provides spots to James Madison and Jacksonville State.
The final two bids would go to 5-7 teams based on the highest APR ranking for 2021-22. This week, I’m projecting Boise State and UCF.
Besides Jacksonville State, other new additions to my projections this week: Baylor, Boston College, Bowling Green, Mississippi State, Rice, UCF and USF.
Here are my Week 9 projections — and each projection includes the projected point spread for each bowl based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
CFP National Championship Prediction
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA Michigan -5.5 Florida State | Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA Georgia -5 Texas |
New Year's Six Bowl Games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1 • Glendale, AZ Oregon -16.5 Air Force | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec. 30 • Atlanta, GA Oklahoma -0.5 Notre Dame |
Capital One Orange Bowl Dec. 30 • Miami, FL Ohio State -15 Louisville | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Dec. 29 • Arlington, TX Washington Alabama -1 |
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Jan. 1 • Orlando, FL Ole Miss Penn State -1.5 | ReliaQuest Bowl Jan. 1 • Tampa, FL UNC LSU -5 | Arizona Bowl Dec. 30 • Tucson, AZ Fresno State -17 E. Michigan | Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN Florida -1.5 Wisconsin | AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 29 • Memphis, TN Kentucky -3.5 Iowa State | Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 29 • El Paso, TX Virginia Tech Arizona -7 | TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Dec. 29 • Jacksonville, FL Tennessee -7.5 Duke | Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX Oklahoma St. USC -11.5 | Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL Miami Kansas State -3.5 | Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY NC State -0.5 Rutgers | Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA Tulane -3.5 Minnesota | TaxAct Texas Bowl Dec. 27 • Houston, TX Texas A&M -8.5 Kansas | Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA Clemson PK Oregon State | Duke's Mayo Bowl Dec. 27 • Charlotte, NC Missouri -16.5 Boston College | Military Bowl Dec. 27 • Annapolis, MD Syracuse -16.5 Navy | Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ BYU -1.5 Nebraska | First Responder Bowl Dec. 26 • Dallas, TX Rice Texas State -2 | Quick Lane Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI Maryland -14.5 Miami OH | EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 23 • Honolulu, HI UNLV SMU -11 | Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 23 • Las Vegas, NV Utah -13 Iowa | 68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 23 • Mobile, AL S. Alabama -10 Jacksonville St. | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID Boise State -8.5 NIU | Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 23 • Fort Worth, TX TCU -5.5 UTSA | Camellia Bowl Dec. 23 • Montgomery, AL Coastal Carolina -11.5 Bowling Green | Birmingham Bowl Dec. 23 • Birmingham, AL Mississippi St. -1.5 Baylor | Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 22 • Tampa, FL Auburn UCF -1.5 | Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 21 • Boca Raton, FL Marshall -6.5 South Florida | Frisco Bowl Dec. 19 • Frisco, TX Memphis -8.5 Georgia Southern | Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 18 • Conway, SC Toledo JMU -2.5 | Independence Bowl Dec. 16 • Shreveport, LA West Virginia Washington St. -8 | LA Bowl Dec. 16 • Inglewood, CA UCLA -18 Wyoming | New Mexico Bowl Dec. 16 • Albuquerque, NM Colorado St. New Mexico St. -1.5 | Cure Bowl Dec. 16 • Orlando, FL Georgia St. -1 Ohio | New Orleans Bowl Dec. 16 • New Orleans, LA Liberty Troy -3 | Bahamas Bowl Dec. 16 • Nassau, Bahamas C. Michigan WKU -8 |
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