Friday College Football Best Bets: Our Top Picks for Penn State vs. Michigan State, Texas Tech vs. Texas, More
Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan State’s Angelo Grose.
- Black Friday's college football slate is upon us.
- Our staff has five best bets for Friday's college football slate, including picks for Penn State vs. Michigan State, Texas Tech vs. Texas and more.
- Check out all five of our best bets for Friday's college football games below.
Friday College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The Black Friday college football slate is one of the more underrated events on the sports calendar.
Friday’s college football slate features 13 games ahead of the final full Saturday slate of the regular season. It also includes a number of rivalry games, including Iowa vs. Nebraska, Texas Tech vs. Texas and Oregon State vs. Oregon — plus much more.
Our college football writers came through with five best bets for Friday’s slate, including picks for the Heroes Game, an AAC showdown and an in-state rivalry in the Lone Star State.
Check out all five of our staff’s best bets for Friday’s college football slate below.
Iowa vs. Nebraska
By John Feltman
This was an easy motivation and situational handicap for me. Something to note right away is that with a record-low total of 25.5, every point will be important, which is why I’m targeting the moneyline.
From a motivational angle, head coach Matt Rhule will be looking to lead his team to a bowl in his first year at the helm. Rhule has always been an incredible motivator at the college level, so I would fully expect his team to rise to the occasion here.
Secondly, despite this being a rivalry game, why on earth does Iowa care about this game? It has the Big Ten Championship next weekend, and this game means absolutely nothing record-wise.
The Hawkeyes offense is amongst the worst in all of Power 5, and I’m trying to figure out how they score more than one touchdown in this matchup. I’m not joking — Nebraska may only need 10 points to come out with a victory.
I also really like what I saw from Chubba Purdy at quarterback last week. Purdy, the younger brother of 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, flashed a lot of talent with his arm and his legs.
Nebraska also hasn’t had the easiest schedule, so it could very well have more wins here. I’d give it more of a fighting chance next weekend instead of the Hawkeyes.
The Huskers are the clear better team, and this line continues to steam up. I would grab the cheapest moneyline you could find or grab -2.5 before this reaches 3.
Pick: Nebraska ML -140 (Play to -145 or -2.5)
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UTSA vs. Tulane
The winner of this matchup will advance to the AAC Championship game, as both teams are in the conference title hunt for the second straight year.
Tulane will try to defend its AAC Championship, but something about it hasn’t looked quite right all season. The Green Wave are 10-1 straight up but have gone just 4-7 against the spread, failing to cover against the worst teams in the conference.
Quarterback Michael Pratt is still fantastic and the leader of this offense. The Green Wave have talent at the receiver position, but their top two targets in Lawrence Keys and Jha’Quan Jackson both missed last week with injury.
Keys has already been ruled out against UTSA, and Jackson is questionable.
Those would be huge losses because Tulane doesn’t run the ball well. Makhi Hughes has OK numbers, but the Green Wave rank just 107th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in explosiveness on the ground.
They have not been able to replace the explosiveness of Tyjae Spears, who was such a big part of last year’s title run.
So much talent from last year’s defense moved on, which has caused the unit to really struggle to defend the pass. The Green Wave have been really good against the run, but opponents are completing 66% of their passes against the Tulane secondary, which is the worst mark in the conference.
That is going to be a massive problem against Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris. The veteran Harris has 52 career games under his belt and has been at UTSA so long that he likely has a Ph.D. already.
Dr. Harris leads an offense that ranks 28th in the nation in Passing Success Rate despite battling injuries early in the year.
He has excellent chemistry with Joshua Cephus, the school’s all-time leading receiver, while Kevorian Barnes leads an explosive backfield.
UTSA’s defense has been excellent against the pass this season and should be able to keep Pratt in check.
Rashad Wisdom is the quarterback of this defense, and the tackling machine is one of the best safeties in the country. On the outside, the Roadrunners have two great cornerbacks, including Kam Alexander who ranks fifth in the country in passes defensed.
These two teams have played five common opponents this season — UAB, North Texas, Rice, ECU and FAU. Tulane beat those teams by 12, 7, 2, 3 and 16 points. UTSA beat them by 21, 8, 20, 14 and 26. The Roadrunners beat every common opponent by more than the Green Wave.
Dating back to their time in Conference USA, the Roadrunners have now won 16 consecutive conference games. UTSA enters this game playing better football right now and has a good matchup with Dr. Harris and this passing attack against a vulnerable Tulane secondary.
Back Meep Meep — and don’t be surprised if it punches its ticket to the title game.
Pick: UTSA +3.5 (Play to +3)
By Brett Pund
This is one of the best games of the weekend, and I’m expecting both offenses to put up points in this spot. However, I particularly like UTSA to stay hot offensively against a susceptible Tulane defense.
Yes, this Green Wave defensive unit is very good at stopping the run. The issue is that the Roadrunners will be looking to do most of their damage through the air with veteran quarterback Frank Harris.
With a healthy Harris over the last four weeks, UTSA is among the top five in the Group of Five in Passing Down Success Rate, Predicted Points Added, offensive explosiveness and Points per Opportunity.
The strong metrics are backed by the numbers on the field. In AAC play, UTSA is averaging 41 points per game.
This offense will be facing against a Tulane secondary that’s 80th in PFF coverage grade and 86th in Pass Success Rate. When facing the stronger offenses in the conference in UAB, Memphis, North Texas and Rice, the Green Wave gave up an average of 25 points per game.
I also expect Michael Pratt to have success in this matchup, which likely turns this into a shootout in New Orleans.
With how Harris and the Roadrunners offense is playing, I think they should clear this team total once again.
Pick: UTSA Team Total Over 23.5 (Play to 24)
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Texas Tech vs. Texas
By Cody Goggin
This season’s Texas Tech team doesn’t play the way it historically has. Rather than exclusively passing the ball, the Red Raiders have passed the ball only 50% of the time this season.
With this balanced attack, the Red Raiders rank 55th in Offensive Success Rate, 64th in Finishing Drives and 102nd in explosiveness. Their passing game has been disappointing overall, ranking 68th in Success Rate, 93rd in PPA and 110th in explosiveness.
Quarterback Behren Morton took over the starting role from the injured Tyler Shough toward the beginning of the season. On the year, he’s averaging -0.03 EPA per dropback and 5.97 yards per dropback.
Texas Tech has been a bit more effective when rushing the ball, ranking 31st in Success Rate and 35th in PPA. However, this week the Red Raiders will be squaring off against a Texas defense that has been fierce against the run.
The Longhorns rank sixth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, sixth in rushing explosiveness allowed and seventh in Rushing PPA Allowed on the year. They also rank 17th in PFF run defense grade.
If there’s a good way to attack this Texas defense, it’s more likely that it comes through the air, where they rank 45th in Success Rate.
Over its last five games, Texas Tech is averaging just 22 points per game despite playing some poor defenses. The average SP+ ranking of those five defenses is 58.2 with the best unit being Kansas State, which ranks 29th.
For comparison’s sake, Texas’ defense ranks 11th in SP+ and will be among the best that Texas Tech has played all year.
I don’t have faith in Texas Tech’s passing game finding success against Texas’ secondary, and for that reason, I don’t see the Red Raiders scoring very many points in this matchup.
At -102, I like taking the under 19.5 points here and would play this down to 17.5 if necessary.
Pick: Texas Tech TT Under 19.5 (Play to 17.5)
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Penn State vs. Michigan State
Congratulations to Michigan State on tying its season-high scoring output against Big Ten competition last week. Its 24 points at Indiana was just the second time all season the Spartans have scored more than two touchdowns in a game against Power 5 competition.
Enter Penn State — one of the nation’s preeminent defenses — to Ford Field.
The Nittany Lions don’t have much to show for on offense, but their defense is another story. Penn State ranks second nationally in total defense (238.7 yards allowed per game) and fourth nationally in scoring defense (12.5 points per game).
Last week, the Nittany Lions limited Rutgers to six points. It marked the fourth opponent this season that Penn State has held to single digits.
Then there’s Michigan State’s inept offense. When the Spartans play anyone of note, their offense grinds to a halt.
Michigan State has played four teams that are currently ranked this season in Washington, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa. In three of the four, Sparty was held to single digits. The Spartans also scored only nine points against Maryland.
Katin Houser is coming off the first three-touchdown performance of his career, but he threw a pair of interceptions in the process. The Penn State defense feasts on turnovers and ranks second in the nation with 24 turnovers gained.
The freshman quarterback has thrown for over 165 yards once in his career, and he’ll be in way over his head against one of the best defenses he’s ever seen.
He also has no running game to turn to for support. The Spartans are the only team in the Big Ten that averages fewer than 100 yards rushing per game, and they’ve scored only one rushing touchdown in eight conference games.
There are questions at the quarterback position for Penn State, as well as inexperienced play-callers in just their second game, so the Nittany Lions will likely keep it more conservative on the ground and let the clock roll.
You never want to bet on Penn State’s offense, but the Nittany Lions defense is one of the most reliable units in the country.
Pick: Michigan State TT Under 9.5 or Better
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