College football Week 3 is here, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of 6 experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Rice vs. Western Michigan and Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada on Saturday night.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 6 'dogs pay out at 9-1.
Let's take a look at our Week 3 college football predictions and NCAAF picks in our Group of 6 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 3.
Week 2 College Football Picks, ML Underdog Parlay
- Rice ML +315 vs. Western Michigan
- Middle Tennessee ML +150 vs. Nevada
Parlay Odds: +900 (bet365)
Rice +315 vs. Western Michigan
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -114 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -106 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +315 |
By Joshua Nunn
I’m on Rice here. After a 52-0 drubbing against Notre Dame, everyone wants to write off the Owls, but this is a weird spot for Western Michigan.
WMU isn’t exactly an explosive offense. The Broncos went into the Big House and essentially beat Michigan (even though it wasn't official) and then beat up an FCS opponent at home in a spot where they've covered 14-of-16 games.
But this smells like a potential letdown before a home date with Boise State.
Add in the travel to Houston and the tricky environment down there — one that Navy and other American Conference teams have struggled with — and this suddenly looks like a classic look-ahead trap for the Broncos.
Rice quarterback Jacurri Brown threw the ball OK against Notre Dame, and the run game looked efficient in the opener against Houston Baptist.
If the Owls can get the ground game going, they can sustain drives, chew clock, and keep WMU’s offense off the field.
Defensively, Western Michigan is shaky, ranking 118th in Success Rate allowed and 95th in Havoc. If Rice can establish the run and control possession, it'll create scoring chances.
WMU’s win over Monmouth didn’t convince me that it will hit big explosive plays. In fact, it posted just one explosive rush in that game, so expect more of a slow, grind-it-out contest.
Rice defends the run well, ranking 50th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and made the Fighting Irish work for it on the ground. For what it's worth, Notre Dame’s longest rush against Rice came in at just 15 yards.
That tells me Rice can force Western Michigan quarterback Broc Lowry into more passing downs than the Brocos would prefer, and that’s not where they'll want to be.
From a schematic perspective, Rice wants to run the ball, sustain drives and keep the game in manageable chunks. WMU needs chunk plays to flip field position and create separation.
I don’t see enough evidence that WMU consistently makes those explosive plays against a team that defends the run as well as Rice does.
This feels like a close game. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rice have a real chance late. At the current price, give me the Owls on the moneyline.
Pick: Rice ML +315
Middle Tennessee +150 vs. Nevada
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
This is one of those weird travel spots for Nevada, which has a near five-hour flight and a 45-minute bus to Murfreesboro before being welcomed by full Southern heat and humidity.
It’ll be about 92 degrees and sticky at kickoff. By the time Nevada left, overnight lows were down near 45. It's a small thing, but it matters when teams are coming off a long trip.
The biggest storyline is that Nevada quarterback Carter Jones is banged up. He had a shoulder bruise, tried to warm up against Montana State and had no zip on the ball, so the Wolf Pack went with AJ Bianco and Luke Duncan.
Well, both were pretty dreadful, finishing a combined 19-of-36 for 167 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in a 13-point loss to FCS Montana State.
They’re basically checkdown merchants, and only Bianco offers any real running upside. With Jones’ availability and health in question, I’m leaning toward Middle Tennessee's Roman Gagliano being the better QB for this matchup.
Gagliano impacts stuff inside the pocket, can create outside the pocket and will take off and run when he has to. That kind of multi-dimensional threat matters in a game like this.
It's also worth noting that MTSU’s game against Marshall showed it can hang for four quarters.
Cam’ron Lacy has been a real problem out of the slot for the Blue Raiders, racking up 17 catches for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns already this season, and he’s slippery as a punt returner. He’s the sort of player who can flip a short catch into a big play, and that matters against a defense that struggles to finish tackles.
The Middle Tennessee defense is also a lot further along than I expected.
The Blue Raiders went the distance with the Thundering Herd and rank 28th in tackling, per PFF. That’s huge against a Wolf Pack offense built to dink-and-dunk and break tackles. If a team can tackle in space, it'll take away a lot of Nevada’s strengths.
The Wolf Pack ran wild against Western Kentucky, so the game will come down to being sound in the run game and closing on ball-carriers. The way MTSU handled Marshall gives me some faith that it would be up to the task.
If Jones is limited or rusty, give me Gagliano and the Blue Raiders in this spot.
Pick: Middle Tennessee ML +150
