East Carolina vs. Navy Odds & Picks: Moneyline Value on Midshipmen (November 20)

East Carolina vs. Navy Odds & Picks: Moneyline Value on Midshipmen (November 20) article feature image
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Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Maquel Haywood.

  • Updated odds make East Carolina -4 favorites over Navy on Saturday afternoon.
  • Keg sees moneyline value on the home underdog, however.
  • Check out Keg's top bet for Saturday's contest below.

East Carolina vs. Navy Odds

Saturday, Nov. 20
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
East Carolina Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4
-110
46.5
-105o / -115u
-190
Navy Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4
-110
46.5
-105o / -115u
+160
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Navy Midshipmen welcome the East Carolina Pirates to Memorial Stadium on Saturday. The Pirates enter on a three-game winning streak, while the Midshipmen have lost four of their last five.

But don’t let Navy’s 2-7 record fool you; it has played three of the best teams in the AAC in Houston, Cincinnati and SMU, all of which were one-possession games.

Navy has had five of its last seven games decided by one score or less, and for a team in East Carolina that hasn’t beaten the Midshipmen since 2011, a win is anything but assumed.

Already bowl-eligible, can Eastern Carolina get caught looking ahead to the No. 3 team in the country in Cincinnati next week? Or will the Pirates keep their winning streak alive and beat Navy for the first time in 10 years?

East Carolina Pirates

ECU controlled the game from start to finish against Memphis last week, but two interceptions by quarterback Holton Ahlers, along with the defense allowing a 75-yard touchdown, made the game much closer than it should’ve been.

The Pirates eventually won, 30-29, but if they make the same mistakes this week against the Midshipmen, I highly doubt the result will be the same.

Ahlers may have had a bad game against Memphis, but that was far from the norm for him. The Pirates rank inside the top 20 in Pass Success Rate with Ahlers under center. He is completing 61% of his passes on the season and has racked up 2,497 total yards with 14 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

Defensively, the Pirates have been a top-50 team, allowing opponents to score just 24.1 points per game. But they are just outside the top 50 in yards, as they’ve allowed 373.9 yards per contest.

Those games have all been against teams that don’t run the triple option, which Navy utilizes. With only one week to prepare and coming off an emotional win over Memphis, the Pirates defense could run into some issues against the rushing attack.

The most significant advantage for the Pirates will be on special teams, where they rank 29th compared to Navy’s 95th in SP+ ratings.

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Navy Midshipmen

It has been a fall far from grace for the Midshipmen, who in 2019 scored 30 points or more in 10 games on the way to an 11-2 season.

Quarterback Tai Lavatai has been more of a game manager for the Midshipmen throughout the season, as they’ve leaned more toward keeping offenses off the field as the primary strategy this season. But he’s still managed to throw for 273 yards and post a 52.5% completion percentage in this run-heavy offense.

Navy has been one of the best on the ground, but you should expect nothing less from a team that runs the ball 84.1% of the time. The Midshipmen rank third in college football in yards per rush while also sitting 16th in rushing yards per game.

The highlight of the Navy defense has been when it mattered most, limiting opponents to just 75% in red zone scoring; good for 19th in the nation. It’s also limited opponents to 30.4 points and 357 yards per game.


East Carolina vs. Navy Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how East Carolina and Navy match up statistically:

East Carolina Offense vs. Navy Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 73 65
Line Yards 105 17
Pass Success 66 97
Pass Blocking** 118 129
Big Play 65 41
Havoc 100 76
Finishing Drives 98 83
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Navy Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 61 50
Line Yards 93 51
Pass Success 130 16
Pass Blocking** 126 114
Big Play 131 95
Havoc 99 17
Finishing Drives 86 44
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 71 86
Coverage 31 122
Middle 8 32 119
SP+ Special Teams 29 95
Plays per Minute 58 127
Rush Rate 53.2% (77) 87.8% (2)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


East Carolina vs. Navy Betting Pick

The Midshipmen average 35:24 of ball control in games this season, 10 minutes more than their opponents. Earlier this season, they recorded an 11:50 drive against Memphis. The slow, methodical attack of Navy will frustrate and wear down the Pirates.

And that’s precisely why I think they will be able to pull the win out this weekend as a home dog on Senior Day. With 26 seniors in total on the roster, I expect them to show up in the last home game of their college careers.

The Midshipmen also won’t be playing Army until Dec. 11 this year. With an extra week of rest heading into this game and three weeks following it to prepare for their rival, I have no concerns about how prepared Navy will be this week.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with taking the points in this game, and I would encourage it, as Navy currently sits above the critical number of three. However, I will be betting the moneyline in what I think will be a big win to cap off the season for the Midshipmen.

Pick: Navy ML +150 or better (or Navy +4) 

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