Florida State vs. Boston College College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bad Spot for Seminoles on Road

Florida State vs. Boston College College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bad Spot for Seminoles on Road article feature image
Credit:

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Phil Jurkovec.

  • Phil Jurkovec and Boston College host Florida State a week after clinching a bowl berth.
  • The Seminoles can clinch their own spot in a bowl game by winning out against the Eagles and Florida.
  • Mike Ianniello previews this ACC showdown and has a bet to make.

Florida State vs. Boston College Odds

Saturday, Nov. 20
12 p.m. ET
ACC Network
Florida State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-115
55.5
-115o / -105u
+110
Boston College Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-105
55.5
-115o / -105u
-130
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Boston College was able to clinch a bowl berth with its win over Georgia Tech last week and faces a Florida State team that needs to win out against the Eagles and Florida to get to six wins.

Both of these teams have shown great fight this season, enduring four-game losing streaks but avoiding a full free fall. After winning the first four games but losing their starting quarterback, the Eagles lost four straight before winning each of the last two games.

Florida State started the season 0-4, but Mike Norvell has done a great job turning things around. The Seminoles have won four of their last six games.

Even with a couple down years for Florida State recently, it has owned the Eagles, having won nine of the last 10 meetings.


Florida State Seminoles

All the talk all offseason centered around UCF transfer McKenzie Milton. Last year’s starter Jordan Travis was able to fend him off and regain the starting quarterback job. He has been greatly improved this year.

Travis’s best asset is still his legs. He is averaging 50.6 yards per game on the ground and has six rushing touchdowns, but he has really improved his ability to throw the ball this year.

  • 2020: Six touchdowns, six interceptions. 55% completion rate, 55.1 PFF Passer Grade.
  • 2021: 11 touchdowns, five interceptions. 63.8% completion rate. 79.2 PFF Passer Grade.

Travis’ arm improvement has helped open up a Seminoles running game that ranks 35th in Rushing Success and 27th in Line Yards. Jashaun Corbin and Treshaun Ward are each averaging more than 6.3 yards per carry and have combined for 128 yards per game with 10 touchdowns.

Defensively, coordinator Adam Fuller has really been able to turn things around in his second season in Tallahassee.

Last season, the Noles finished 119th in Passing Success Rate and 99th in Rushing Success. Just one year later, they have improved to 47th and 23rd in those categories.

Over the past two weeks, Florida State has allowed just 64.5 yards per game and 2.1 yards per carry.

This defense is led by star defensive end Jermaine Johnson II. The Georgia transfer leads the ACC with 10.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. He has 36 quarterback pressures and is firmly in the ACC Defensive Player of the Year discussion.

Florida State has really cleaned up its fundamentals this year, having taken fewer penalties, improving on special teams and ranking 11th in the country in tackling.

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Boston College Eagles

It will be very interesting to see if there are enough games left for quarterback Phil Jurkovec to play his way into the first round of the NFL draft. The 6-foot-5 junior is sure to have a lot of scouts watching the rest of the year, as the Pittsburgh native could end up competing with Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett as the top quarterback available.

Jurkovec missed six games with a broken hand and returned two weeks ago against Virginia Tech. He was not asked to do much against the Hokies, attempting just 13 passes.

Last week against Georgia Tech, he only threw 20 passes but made the most of them, going for 310 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 71 yards and three rushing touchdowns en route to ACC Player of the Week honors.

Star wide receiver Zay Flowers hauled in both touchdowns and after catching nine scores last year, he’s surely happy to see his starting quarterback under center again.

5+4=6 pic.twitter.com/JncWL3YMrh

— BC Football (@BCFootball) November 14, 2021

Running back Pat Garwo III is also probably happy since teams will be unable to key on him anymore. In the six games without Jurkovec, the Eagles averaged 135.3 yards per game. In the four with their starting quarterback, they rushed for 214.8 per game.

Head coach Jeff Hafley comes from a defensive background and his defense has been the team’s strength for most of his tenure. BC ranks third in the ACC in allowing 19.9 points per game.

The Eagles’ secondary has been a no-fly zone for opponents this year, having allowed just 159.5 yards per game through the air, which is the best in the ACC and third in the country. Boston College has allowed the fewest completions in the nation and opponents have thrown nine interceptions to just eight touchdowns against them.

Cornerbacks Elijah Jones and Josh DeBerry have both been terrific at shutting down opposing receivers and lead the way for an Eagles secondary that has the sixth-best coverage grade, according to Pro Football Focus..

Boston College does a good job at limiting big plays and is excellent at keeping teams out of the end zone. The Eagles rank 13th at preventing Finishing Drives, which is aided by their No. 5 ranking in tackling.


Florida State vs. Boston College Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Boston College match up statistically:

Florida State Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 35 68
Line Yards 27 84
Pass Success 82 23
Pass Blocking** 57 121
Big Play 31 37
Havoc 112 95
Finishing Drives 18 13
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Boston College Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 85 23
Line Yards 112 64
Pass Success 63 47
Pass Blocking** 21 44
Big Play 77 39
Havoc 81 33
Finishing Drives 87 36
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 11 5
Coverage 53 6
Middle 8 34 54
SP+ Special Teams 37 60
Plays per Minute 65 84
Rush Rate 58.3% (46) 59.8% (30)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Florida State vs. Boston College Betting Pick

It is really hard to bet against the Eagles now that Jurkovec is back under center. In his career, he has tossed 22 touchdowns to just four interceptions.

Jurkovec allows Boston College to create big plays through the air and keeps teams from stacking the box to open up the running game. The Eagles have a terrific offensive line and have allowed the second-fewest sacks in the ACC this season. They should be able to contain Johnson’s pass-rushing ability.

This is also a really bad spot for Florida State. The Seminoles are coming off a thrilling comeback win, scoring in the final 30 seconds to beat Miami in a big rivalry game. Next week, they will finish the season against their other rivals, the Florida Gators.

Sandwiched in between those two games is a trip to Chestnut Hill, Mass., where it’s expected to be 42 degrees at kickoff.

I’ll back Jurkovec and the Eagles at -1.5 and would play them to -3.

Pick: Boston College -1.5 (Play to -3)

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