Maryland vs. Minnesota College Football Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Over/Under (Oct. 23)

Maryland vs. Minnesota College Football Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Over/Under (Oct. 23) article feature image
Credit:

G Fiume/Maryland Terrapins/Getty Images. Pictured: Taulia Tagovailoa.

  • The Maryland Terrapins take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Big Ten action on Saturday afternoon.
  • The Gophers enter this matchup as small favorites, but Keg sees betting value on the total instead of a side.
  • Check out Keg's full betting guide with odds and picks for the game below.

Maryland vs. Minnesota Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Maryland Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4
+100
54.5
-115o / -105u
+170
Minnesota Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4
-120
54.5
-115o / -105u
-200
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It happens every year. More than halfway into the season, I think I’ve got the Big Ten figured out now that we have some games to go off. However, it’s not the case. Nope, the Big Ten breeds chaos, and it arrives when you least expect it.

Minnesota found itself amid that chaos a few weeks ago when it lost outright at home to Bowling Green as a 31-point favorite. So, can it avoid that chaos this week against a Terrapins team hungry for a win?

Maryland is coming off of a much-needed bye week. In its two games leading up to it, the team was outscored, 117- 31. While those contests were against two of the strongest teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State and Iowa, the Terrapins have also had injury issues.

Can Maryland pull off the road upset and get its season back on track? Or does PJ Fleck have his team locked in to start the second half of the season?


Maryland Terrapins

After a 4-0 start that had them on the verge of a Top-25 ranking, the Terrapins crashed as hard as a team can.

Maryland hoped to get players back from injury with time to rest on the bye week, and while it might get defensive players Branden Jennings, Kenny Bennett, and Jakorian Bennett back, it announced two more season-ending injuries to starters. Outside linebacker Durell Nchami and receiver Jeshaun Jones will join star receiver Dontay Demus on the sideline.

While quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has been amazing, completing 72% of his passes for 1776 yards and 14 touchdowns, it’s an entirely different group of wide receivers he will be throwing to in this spot.

He still has Rakim Jarrett, who’s been a star, but if the Gophers can shut him down, things could go downhill.

Instead, the Terrapins will have to look to their rushing game to produce. It also can’t be ignored that Maryland has had trouble with ball security. Tagovailoa has thrown eight interceptions, while the team has 12 turnovers in total.

Unfortunately, the rush has been lacking for the Terps. Given they haven’t needed to lean on the rush before now, they will likely have no choice due to injuries. Maryland has only averaged 118 yards per game on the ground. This week, they will look to improve in Minnesota and will be led by running back Tayon Fleet-Davis, who has 338 yards and four touchdowns this season.

Outside of injuries, the Maryland defense has been another significant struggle this year for Mike Locksley. The Terps are allowing opponents on average 428 yards on 34 points per game.

However, against a Minnesota team that passes the ball only 31% of the time, there might be some relief for Maryland and its secondary, which ranks 120th in the country, allowing 297 pass yards per game.

The Gophers offense is built on the rush, averaging 191 rush yards per outing. The most straightforward path to success for Maryland will be winning at the line of scrimmage and limiting Minnesota on the ground.

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Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Golden Gophers seem to be back on track, winning four of the last five games, including two in a row.

Quarterback Tanner Morgan led the way for Minnesota in his best game of the season so far in a 30-23 win over Nebraska last week. Morgan completed 20-of-24 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

Chris Autman-Bell led all Minnesota receivers with 103 yards and one touchdown on 11 catches.

Yet, the biggest news for the Gophers is they appear to have found a No. 1 option at running back following some uncertainty after losing Trey Potts to injury. Bryce Williams led the way against Nebraska last week, recording 127 yards and a touchdown while averaging 7.5 yards per rush. For a team that runs the ball on 68% of plays, it will need consistent success out of the backfield.

Last week, the Minnesota defense gained some confidence after limiting Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez to a career-low -17 rush yards.

However, its rush defense has been stout the entire season, limiting opponents to just 86.8 yards per game. And while it does lack in the secondary, if the team can pressure Tagovailoa, that might not be a problem considering he will be working without two of his best receivers.


Maryland vs. Minnesota Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Minnesota match up statistically:

Maryland Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 83 28
Line Yards 49 26
Pass Success 29 62
Pass Blocking** 19 35
Big Play 28 28
Havoc 104 40
Finishing Drives 68 47
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Minnesota Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 91 37
Line Yards 84 49
Pass Success 80 56
Pass Blocking** 38 98
Big Play 126 84
Havoc 85 32
Finishing Drives 62 50
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 92 44
Coverage 99 39
Middle 8 87 19
SP+ Special Teams 78 55
Plays per Minute 54 129
Rush Rate 46.9% (113) 70.2% (4)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Maryland vs. Minnesota Betting Pick

Last year, this game turned into a shootout at Maryland with a 45-44 final score. I don’t see a repeat of that performance this year in Minneapolis, though.

While the Terps can excel in the passing game against a struggling Gophers secondary, I think it will be an uphill battle for Tagovailoa without his two best receivers.

I look for the Gophers to slow this game down and control time of possession, while methodically running the ball against a Terrapins team that isn’t awful against the run but will allow Minnesota to move the ball.

I expect turnovers in this game, but it shouldn’t be an issue as long as both teams can avoid it in their own red zone. That said, I’m taking the total under 54.5 points and would bet it down to 50 in this contest.

Pick: Under 54.5 (Play to 50) 

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