Miami vs. Florida State College Football Odds & Picks: Seminoles Should Keep Rivalry Game Close
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images. Pictured: Jashaun Corbin.
- Miami is a slight favorite in a big-name ACC matchup vs. Florida State.
- The Seminoles appear to match up well against the Hurricanes' pass-first offense.
- Kody Malstrom breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Miami vs. Florida State Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -2.5 | 61 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 | 61 -110o / -110u | +110 |
If this game took place a few years ago, this would be in the national spotlight. Fast forward to today, and this isn't on anyone's radar other than fans of the schools and sports bettors.
Miami entered the season as the co-favorite to win the ACC Coastal. Championship aspirations disappeared quickly, as Miami had a rough start to the season and now finds itself in the middle of the division standings.
After opening the season with an absolute thriller against Notre Dame, Florida State went on to start 0-4 and has been disappointing ever since. Constantly generating buzz with incoming talent, the Seminoles just haven't put it together since their championship.
In a battle of who's less disappointing, we will have action on this for our viewing pleasure.
Miami Hurricanes
Tyler Van Dyke Filling In Admirably
Miami had championship hopes going into the season when led by college sensation D'Eriq King. Production took a grinding halt when he got injured early, as Miami sits at 5-4. But not all hope of finishing strong is lost.
Backup quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has kept the passing game afloat, maintaining a Pass Success ranking of 28th. Since stepping up to fill the void, he has thrown for 1,877 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions.
He came into the position protected, as Miami's offensive line ranks near top-10 in pass blocking. He will look to shred a Florida State secondary that sits around the middle of the pack in defending the pass.
With the run game basically being nonexistent, Miami will look to be pass-heavy once again.
If the Hurricanes want to avoid going back to .500, then they will need to score when the opportunity presents itself when they pass the 40. They have a weak Finishing Drives rate of 83rd nationally.
Miami's Defense Bends and Breaks
While the Miami offense has been doing everything to keep it in games, the defense has left plenty to be desired. This is not the Canes defense of old; this unit is a pillow.
It ranks near the bottom of the nation in what is the most important defensive metric in my opinion, Def. Finishing Drives. Sitting 120th, Miami risks being exposed once again, as Florida State is top-10 in Finishing Drives.
This is in large part due to Miami's inability to tackle. Teams have been gaining extra yards and busted plays as a result of the Canes' second-to-last ranking in PFF tackling.
If Miami can limit offensive production at the line, then it can force much-needed three-and-outs for what is expected to be a tight game.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Takes Itself Out of Games
Honestly, this might be the best 3-6 team in the nation. Florida State really isn't that bad; its record is just the result of unfortunate luck.
This may be in part due to its Havoc Allowed ranking, as Florida State sits at 110th in the nation. Constantly taking itself out of games and ruining any rhythm it generates on drives, Florida State has been its own biggest enemy.
When the Seminoles do sustain drives, they're sneakily one of the best scoring units past the 40. Ranking top-10 in Finishing Drives, they will look to exploit Miami's glaring weakness at defending past the 40.
Florida State will look to pound the ball on this Miami defense, as it ranks top-30 in Rush Success and Line Yards. This is the offensive metric to watch for Florida State because Miami boasts a respectable Def. Line Yards mark but a below-average ranking in Def. Rush Success.
Is the Seminoles Defense Underrated?
While the offense has struggled this season, the defense has actually been pretty solid. Ranking near top-50 in almost every defensive category other than Def. Line Yards, it will have the tools to disrupt Miami's offense.
Florida State's defensive game plan for this one will be simple: Stop the pass. That's easier said than done, as the Noles rank 40th in Def. Pass Success and 51st in Def. Pass Rush, while Miami sits top-30 in both.
FSU does a great job at limiting the big play and keeping everything in front of it, ranking top-10 in PFF tackling. This is an area it will need to continue to find success in to help limit Miami's air attack.
Miami vs. Florida State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Florida State match up statistically:
Miami Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 128 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 40 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 11 | 51 | |
| Big Play | 59 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 21 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Florida State Offense vs. Miami Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 42 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 44 | 94 | |
| Big Play | 39 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 120 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 129 | 9 |
| Coverage | 104 | 58 |
| Middle 8 | 50 | 26 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 48 | 26 |
| Plays per Minute | 8 | 56 |
| Rush Rate | 49.5% (103) | 57.5% (47) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Miami vs. Florida State Betting Pick
In a battle of disappointing teams, the metric matchups are actually pretty interesting. I give the slight edge to Florida State as the home underdog.
As a pass-heavy unit, Miami's offense is easy to plan for. It struggles to finish drives, giving Florida State numerous chances to keep points off the board on.
On the offensive side, Florida State will run it on Miami until the wheels fall off the track. Miami is poor in Def. Rush Success and is also the second-to-worst tackling unit in football.
This will allow FSU to bust runs open for big gains. If the Noles can get past the 40, points should come easily because of Miami's weak Def. Finishing Drives rank.
I grabbed the premium football number of +3 but wouldn't take FSU any lower.
Pick: Florida State +3 or better
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