Middle Tennessee vs. Charlotte Betting Odds, Picks: The Bet to Make on Friday Night’s Over/Under (September 24)

Middle Tennessee vs. Charlotte Betting Odds, Picks: The Bet to Make on Friday Night’s Over/Under (September 24) article feature image
Credit:

Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Reynolds.

Middle Tennessee vs. Charlotte Odds

Middle Tennessee Odds +2.5 (+100)
Charlotte Odds -2.5 (-122)
Moneyline +126 / -154
Over/Under 55.5 (-112 / -108)
Time Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Plug your nose and grab your puke bucket. This is going to be an ugly one.

With bigger named teams like Wake Forest and Virginia attracting eyeballs to an ACC matchup, mine will be firmly planted on Charlotte and Middle Tennessee.

With both teams coming off a loss, both MTSU and Charlotte look to get back on track in an inner conference battle to open up Friday night. With a spread of a field goal, this one is predicted to come down to the wire.

Not only is this a conference showdown, but it’s a division matchup no less. Charlotte currently sits at 2-1 and tied for second in the division as MTSU is at the bottom with a 1-2 record.

Alfred in “The Dark Knight” coined one of my favorite movie quotes. When talking about the Joker, he said, “Some people just want to watch the world burn.”

In this case, some people will just want to watch a boring, scoreless game. That’s me.


Middle Tennessee vs. Charlotte Betting Preview

Friday, Sept. 24
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

MTSU Offense

This MTSU offense is horrible. That’s as nice as I can put it without going over the top.

Ranking 130th in Rush Success and 105th in Line Yards, I’m not even sure it could run the ball against your local high school team. Luckily for the Blue Raiders, Charlotte doesn’t boast the best numbers in stuffing the run.

As of writing, only one MTSU running back has cracked over 80 yards total in three games. Not a single rusher had over 23 yards in their last game, a loss to UTSA. Not good.

While the running game is horrible, the passing game is at least… also horrible. Currently ranked 114th in Pass Success, 94th in Pass Block and 122nd in Off. Havoc, the MTSU offense is a corpse.

The offense may look different going into this game as quarterback Bailey Hockman is stepping away from the team. He finishes his season throwing for 41 yards and one interception in his last outing. Chase Cunningham will be filling in the role moving forward.


MTSU Defense

It’s hard to be much worse than the MTSU offense. Luckily, its defense has shown more success.

Currently ranking 60th in Def. Rush Success, its rush defense will need to be ready as Charlotte comes in with one of the heavier rush rates in the nation.

It’s worth noting that the MTSU defense has been fantastic at limiting the Big Play and not letting teams advance past the 40. The Blue Raiders rank 16th in Big Play and 15 in Def. Finishing Drives — a great recipe for the under.

They have been forcing offenses into three-and-outs, with no help from Havoc. If they could cause some disruptions and get to the quarterback, the defense may be able to do enough to make up for the lack of offense and win this game.

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Charlotte 49ers

Charlotte Offense

You would think for a team that has an above average Rush Rate, it would do a better job at it. With a Rush Rate of 60.1%, this has only resulted in a Rush Success mark of 95th and a Line Yards number of 103rd. If it’s broke, fix it.

The 49ers do like to split the carries among a trio of running backs who are all over 100 yards so far, with Calvin Camp leading the charge at 160 yards. Their quarterback, Chris Reynolds, also likes to get in on the fun, rushing for 111 yards and two touchdowns.

Speaking of Reynolds, he is off to a decent start. Throwing for 585 yards and five touchdowns, he can burn you through the air or with his legs.

He will continue to look to feed his two favorite targets, Grant DuBose and Victor Tucker. The receiver duo has combined for 386 yards and two touchdowns on 24 receptions.

Charlotte will look to mix it up against the MTSU defense, as it owns respectable ranks of 60th in Def. Rush Success and 56th in Def. Pass Success.


Charlotte Defense

As previously mentioned, the Charlotte defense struggles to stop the run. Currently ranking 115th in Def. Rush Success and 110th in Line Yards, this is shaping up to be an interesting matchup on the ground.

Not all is lost, though, as the 49ers defense does a great job of defending the pass.

While lacking in its ability to get to the quarterback — owning a 122nd ranked Pass Rush — the secondary does a great job limiting the passing attack. Ranked 34th in Def. Pass Success, the 49ers secondary has nine pass breakups and one interception.

If Charlotte wants to win a tight one as the number implies, then it will need to do a better job at disrupting the backfield. Offensive lines have had their way, pushing the Niners front back and protecting their quarterbacks.

Charlotte averages 2.3 sacks per game.


Middle Tennessee vs. Charlotte Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Middle Tennessee and Charlotte match up statistically:

Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Charlotte Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 130 115
Line Yards 105 110
Pass Success 114 34
Pass Blocking** 94 122
Big Play 67 97
Havoc 122 51
Finishing Drives 35 31
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Charlotte Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 95 60
Line Yards 103 121
Pass Success 87 56
Pass Blocking** 81 95
Big Play 113 16
Havoc 105 106
Finishing Drives 79 15
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 25 92
PFF Coverage 65 89
Middle 8 44 75
SP+ Special Teams 105 27
Plays per Minute 49 121
Rush Rate 49.7% (95) 60.1% (38)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Two statistical matchups stick out to me. MTSU so far has shown incapable of running the ball. It has a great opportunity to turn that around against Charlotte’s poor rush defense.

Another one is the Def. Finishing Drives numbers. With both teams having somewhat poor defenses, it is eye-popping to see they excel at keeping teams in check past the 40. That’s a big factor into my bet for this game.


Middle Tennessee vs. Charlotte Betting Pick

This is going to be an ugly one. Which is exactly what I’m hoping for.

Charlotte will look to run the ball with an above-average Rush Rate, which means more opportunities to bleed the clock. Even with a high Rush Rate, it doesn’t necessarily run it very well.

With both teams having very poor offensive metrics, I don’t expect points to be scored in bunches here — especially when both teams shockingly have great Def. Finishing Drives rates.

We have this game projected at 50, well below the listed total of 56.5. I grabbed a piece at the open of 57 and would still play it at the current price.

Pick: Under 57 (-115)

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