Florida State vs. Alabama and SMU vs. Louisville take center stage during the college football Week 3 afternoon slate. But I'm focusing on two other matchups at 3:30 p.m. ET.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here's the full piece. This is the second spots piece that I've completed this season. So, here's my college football picks for Week 3.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 8-5-1 (61.5%)
- Overall: 231-183-4 (55.8%)
College Football Picks for Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | UTEP +35.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Rutgers +24 |
UTEP +35.5 at Michigan
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This is a tough spot on paper for Michigan, following a season-saving victory over Oklahoma with a trip to Iowa on tap to kick off Big Ten play.
Last week was an absolute all-out effort following the controversial Hail Mary victory over Western Michigan.
What changed for the Wolverines last week? Well, for starters, they came out ready to play. Additionally, they unleashed Bryce Underwood's legs, which unlocked the offense. He finished with almost as many designed runs (15) as pass attempts (17).
That approach looks like the best path forward for this Michigan offense, but I doubt you want to run Underwood much against a severely outmatched opponent in UTEP.
As a result, Underwood's inaccuracy in the traditional dropback game could lead to a few punts, which is all it might take to stay within this number.
Plus, UTEP is actually working at a very slow pace compared to previous seasons, which is always ideal for a large underdog. And it's not like the Wolverines operate with lightning tempo, which should suppress the number of possessions.
I'm not going to say too many positive things about the Miners, but they did move the ball at times much more effectively than I had expected in the opener at Oklahoma with a brand-new offense. They just couldn't make a field goal, going 0-for-3.
That could be an issue once again, but I at least expect the offense to look better with each passing week.
After maybe working on some dropback passing early in the game to get the timing down in live action, I expect Michigan to just lean on the run to get this over with as quickly as possible, with full health being the main priority.
UTEP vs. Michigan Trend
UTEP hasn't fared well historically as an underdog of 35-plus points (1-6 ATS), but the Miners did get an easy cover last season in Week 3 at Texas, losing by 17 as 38.5-point underdogs.
Pick: UTEP +35.5 (Play to +35)
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Rutgers +24 vs. USC
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I bet Rutgers last week against Boston College, and it was a painful experience with the Scarlet Knights turning the ball over six times (including fourth-down stops) in BC territory with their backup quarterback.
They also gave up free points on a failed fourth-down attempt in their own territory, in addition to a field goal to end the half due to some head-scratching prevent defense.
Ultimately, I thought they were the better team on a down-to-down basis, so I actually upgraded them slightly.
I still maintain the market downgraded Rutgers a little bit too much following its stunning loss to UMass to open the season. The team is very flawed and lacks talent once again on defense, but I don't think it'll turn the ball over four times every single game.
The Knights also have some talent on offense, led by one of the best wide receivers in the country in KJ Duff.
With or without Dylan Lonergan back from injury (I think he'll play), Duff can make a couple of splash plays downfield to get Rutgers on the board to stay within this number. He's a Ferrari outside of a broken-down shack.
I won't waste any more of your time waxing poetic about lowly Rutgers.
This play is all about taking a number I make lower even though I was as high as anybody on USC coming into the season. It's also a horrific situational spot traveling across the country (where USC has never fared well) with a massive game against Oregon on deck that may decide its eventual College Football Playoff fate.
As a result, I doubt the Trojans want to show much, and they will likely rest starters who are dealing with injuries (or pull them as soon as viable), including electric star freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley, who won't suit up for this one.
USC's going to its backups, especially on defense, appears to be a significant downgrade, as we've seen so far this season. That unit gave up 23 points to San Jose State in the fourth quarter to open the season and allowed a touchdown on each of the final two drives vs. Louisiana last week.
The backdoor could be wide open if needed.
Rutgers vs. USC Trend
Over the past 15 seasons, USC has gone a putrid 12-31-2 (27.9%) ATS when traveling to another time zone. And those splits get even worse if you remove Mountain Time Zone games, with a 3-15 ATS mark, including 1-7 under Lincoln Riley.
Pick: Rutgers +24 (Play to +23)
