To begin Week 3 in college football, I'm targeting three betting spots, including one SEC duel.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here's the full piece. This is the second spots piece that I've completed this season. So, here's my college football Week 3 picks.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 8-5-1 (61.5%)
- Overall: 231-183-4 (55.8%)
College Football Week 3 Picks (Noon Slate)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Arkansas +25.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Texas State -2.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Bowling Green +24 |
Arkansas +25.5 vs. Georgia
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
The brand new Hogs have looked horrendous to start the season. Following a lackluster effort against FCS North Alabama, they went out to Utah and got slaughtered by the Utes, 43-10.
New head coach Ryan Silverfield definitely has his work cut out for him in his first season in Fayetteville.
Meanwhile, Georgia has looked completely unstoppable through two weeks, blasting its first pair of opponents by a combined 100 points.
While I like this experienced and talented Dawgs bunch, let's pump the brakes a bit before we crown them national champions. They beat a flaccid FCS team in Tennessee State (which, for reference, lost 30-3 to Alabama A&M last week) and then stomped out a way-down Western Kentucky bunch that lost at Nevada by 35 in its opener.
While head coach Kirby Smart finally covered as a favorite of greater than 38 points (twice!), neither of those performances really moved the needle for me.
I did upgrade the Dawgs slightly and have downgraded the Razorbacks, yet I still am hovering right around a spread of 22 for this game.
Therefore, I had to take the 25.5 and sell high on Georgia in its first road game following two blowouts of complete cupcakes to open the season.
It's also worth noting that Georgia has Oklahoma on deck, so this 11 a.m. local kick could end up being a bit of a sleepy start.
Plus, against competent opponents (jury is still out on whether we can classify Arkansas as such), this Georgia passing attack may lack elite explosiveness on the outside, which certainly helps an underdog catching over three touchdowns.
Look, the Arkansas quarterback play is particularly poor, which will be impossible to overcome in SEC play.
And I don't expect the Hogs to do much against a stout Georgia defense, but there were rumblings they were tipping plays last week in Utah, so that could have played a part in that absolute drubbing.
And you'd imagine they'd clean that up this week while preparing to throw the kitchen sink at Georgia in its SEC home opener under a brand-new regime.
As I alluded to above, prior to Georgia's opener, the betting world couldn't stop talking about Smart's atrocious track record (0-15 ATS) as a favorite of more than 38 points that I've talked about extensively for a long time. He went 2-0 ATS in those spots to start this season to end that streak with authority, but I personally wanted no part of fading Georgia in either game.
This is a different story, and it does remain true that Kirby generally doesn't have interest in running up the score on teams. His splits (see below) as a favorite in this spread range against SEC foes back that up.
I'm holding my nose and taking the points. Woo Pig Sooie.
Arkansas vs. Georgia Trend
As a favorite of more than 21 points (all between -21.5 and -39) in SEC matchups, Smart has gone just 9-17 ATS (34.6%), failing to cover by an average of 4.5 points per game.
Pick: Arkansas +25.5 (Play to +24.5)
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Texas State -2.5 vs. North Texas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ USA
The bounces are eventually going to go Texas State's way. Last season, the Bobs went 1-4 in one-possession games with a pair of overtime losses. And so far this season, the good fortune hasn't come their way.
In the opener against Texas, they found themselves down 28-0 despite gaining more yards than the Longhorns. Going 1-for-3 on fourth down with three turnovers certainly didn't help matters, but the offense moved the ball easily in the first half against the current No. 1 team in America.
Then, last week against UTSA, they lost in the final seconds in a contest it out-gained the Roadrunners, 481-398.
Once again, the bounces didn't go their way when they really probably just needed one. The Bobs had a -3 turnover margin and went 0-for-1 on fourth down, while UTSA converted 5-of-6.
There have probably been a lot of sleepless nights in G.J. Kinne's household over the past two seasons, but you'd have to imagine the boys from San Marcos are overdue for some positive variance, which could start this week against a North Texas team we can sell high on following a 38-point clubbing of UNLV.
I've been very impressed with what Neal Brown has done with a brand-new roster after most of last year's staff and key players darted for Stillwater. The Mean Green even out-gained Indiana in the opener.
As a result, I have upgraded them by nearly a touchdown, even if part of last week's result had to do with a horrific spot for UNLV, which simply never got off the bus in one of the sloppiest first halves of football you'll see all season.
For this particular matchup, I trust Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson to carve up a North Texas secondary that has lost three pieces to injury since the start of camp.
It's worth noting that stud Texas State wideout Beau Sparks and fellow starting receiver Zechariah Sample are listed as questionable after both missed last week's game, which makes that result even more impressive, in my opinion.
I'm hearing both have a decent shot of suiting up, which would provide a very welcome boost to an electric passing attack that came into the year with the only pair of returning 1,000-yard receivers in the country with Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr.
Ultimately, I like the spot and matchup in a game I project over a field goal, so I happily bet the -2.5 here even with the lingering injury questions at wide receiver for the Bobs.
I mean, Texas State laid an almost identical number last week at home vs. UTSA. I know North Texas is better than expected, but I'm not ready to power-rate it at the same level as the Roadrunners.
The Bobcat special teams are a disaster, but the Mean Green have glaring issues in that department as well, making that a bit of a wash.
I'm sure North Texas running back Jahiem White will pose problems for the Bobcat defense, but give me the better quarterback and team at home at less than a field goal in a battle between programs that have played two of the most difficult schedules in the country to date.
Texas State vs. North Texas Trend
North Texas covered the closing number by more than 40 points last week vs. UNLV. Historically, following a cover by 40-plus points, teams going on the road have covered at just a 43% clip.
Pick: Texas State -2.5 (Play to -3)
Bowling Green +24 at Iowa State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This is a tough spot for the Cyclones after a hard-fought last-minute loss to Iowa in the Cy-Hawk Game last week.
Now, they come home for a sleepy early kick to face lowly Bowling Green one week before hosting Utah to kick off conference play.
I doubt they want to show much here and likely want to get some run for their inexperienced backup quarterback once they build a comfortable lead.
Plus, quarterback Jaylen Raynor is always a prime candidate to cough the ball up, regardless of opponent. The Clones also got pretty beat up last week in Iowa City, so they could be down a couple of key starters.
Bowling Green has been pretty abysmal to start the season. The Falcons lost a coin-flip at home to an FCS school to open the season (a top-10 one at least) and then got drilled at Nebraska, 56-7, last week.
The offense is simply anemic with a D-II transfer at quarterback, playing behind an offensive line that had to be completely rebuilt after the Falcons sported an extremely veteran group in Eddie George's first season in northwest Ohio.
The wide receiver room is also severely lacking in talent. It's very alarming that BG averaged only 2.8 yards per rush against Tarleton, which allowed both Prairie View A&M and McNeese State to eclipse six yards per carry.
You can at least expect BG to operate at a glacial pace with a heavy dose of likely unsuccessful runs and short passes that feature tight ends from heavy sets.
This Iowa State defense looks legit under head coach Jimmy Rogers, as it held Iowa to nothing on the ground while almost pulling off the upset.
There's a real chance Bowling Green just can't score here, so I also sprinkled some under, for what it's worth.
While disappointing so far, the BG defense does at least have some real talent for a MAC school at all three levels. And this Iowa State offense is just completely broken right now while also operating at a snail-like pace.
This thing could easily end 23-7 in a battle between two of the slower-paced teams in the country.
Bowling Green vs. Iowa State Trend
MAC teams have historically not fared well on the road against P4 teams in the month of September, especially of late. Over the past 10 seasons, as underdogs of more than three touchdowns, they have gone just 26-47-1 ATS (35.6%). Scary!
Pick: Bowling Green +24 or Better · Under 44
