The Tulane Green Wave take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, KS. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Kansas State is favored by -20.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Tulane vs. Kansas State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.
Tulane vs Kansas State Prediction
- Tulane vs. Kansas State Pick: Kansas State -20.5
My Kansas State vs. Tulane best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulane vs Kansas State Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +980 |
| K State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
- Tulane vs Kansas State point spread: Kansas State -20.5 (-110), Tulane +20.5 (-110)
- Tulane vs Kansas State over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Tulane vs Kansas State moneyline: Tulane +980, Kansas State -2000
Tulane vs Kansas State College Football Preview
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview
It's been a turbulent start to the year for Tulane, failing to get off the bus in its season opener against Duke before barely squeaking past South Alabama in Week 2 as a 9.5-point favorite.
Kadin Semonza’s inconsistencies through the air (completing just 58.1% of his passes in two games) have made it difficult for the Green Wave to keep their drives alive.
With Semonza struggling to connect with his pass catchers, Tulane’s offense has been anemic, ranking 120th or worse in finishing drives and in havoc allowed.
By failing to stretch out the defense, the Green Wave's ground game hasn't fared much better while combating against a stacked box, residing near the bottom of the board in rush success rate.
Unfortunately for Tulane, its defense has struggled to give it the production it needs to help mask its underwhelming offense, fielding a group that creates disruptions at a very low rate.
By allowing its opponents to methodically move the ball down the field, Tulane gets backed up into scoring position at a high rate, making it easier for its opponents to put up points on the board.
With both sides of the ball struggling to find their footing, the Green Wave are vulnerable to falling behind early on in their contests with little hope of clawing their way out of a deficit.
That's especially true with their offense struggling to take care of the ball, spotting their opponents generous field position after every stalled out drive.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview
With question marks looming over its offense while under a new regime, Kansas State has been able to quickly address them, leaping into the top-40 in offensive success rate, finishing drives and havoc allowed.
Avery Johnson’s dual-threat abilities have been on full display in the Wildcats' two wins, throwing for 391 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 8.4 yards per carry on the ground.
When Johnson is able to take off and run, he applies serious pressure to opposing linebackers, forcing them to spy across the middle in an attempt to neutralize his legs.
When anchored, this frees up more space for the Wildcats' pass-catchers to exploit, increasing their chances of breaking away from their opponents coverage to help create a high quality passing lane.
If the Wildcats want to sustain their high level of play on offense, then Johnson will need to cut down on his turnovers after he threw two picks in his latest performance against Washington State.
While he was able to keep a clean sheet for a majority of his 2025 campaign, turnovers plagued him in his first full start in 2024, averaging nearly one interception per game.
Like their offense, the Wildcats have also been able to get off to a hot start on defense, climbing into the top 10 in defensive success rate, EPA and finishing drives. Their havoc helps create disruptions at a high rate, making it difficult for their opponents to get into a rhythm.
Should their defense be able to continue to play at a high level, the Wildcats will be able to avoid playing in highly volatile contests and make a run at the Big 12 Championship.
Tulane vs Kansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
Heading into Week 3, expect the Wildcats to build on their momentum by using their havoc to get Tulane off the field shortly into their possessions.
Their pressure will lower the quality of Semonza’s throws, which will lead to an uptick in his total number of turnover worth plays while throwing into tight windows.
Positive regression also looms large over the Wildcats' defense in regard to explosiveness, using their advantage in the trenches to help reduce the amount of time Semonza has to let their plays develop.
By getting the ball out of his hands quickly after the snap, their corners will be able to remain near the vicinity of the point of catch and continue to create disruptions.
After forcing Tulane into an early out, expect the Wildcats to face minimal resistance in their efforts of getting into scoring position while taking advantage of a defense that's unable to hold its opponents in front of the sticks.
Once in the shortened field, Johnson can counter the Green Waves stretched-out coverage with his legs and capitalize on their scoring opportunities.
With clear advantages on both sides of the ball, expect the Wildcats to set a scoring pace too fast for Tulane to keep up with and to cover the lofty spread. If Kansas State crosses through the key number of -21, reduce the size of your wager with a stop point at -24.
Pick: Kansas State -20.5
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