Arizona vs. Washington Odds, Picks: Trust Wildcats on Road?
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Jayden de Laura (Arizona)
- Arizona and Washington face off in a Week 7 college football Pac-12 affair.
- Two transfer quarterbacks are on opposite sidelines as Jayden de Laura leads Wildcats and Michael Penix Jr. starts for Huskies.
- Dan Keegan breaks down the bet to make.
Arizona vs. Washington Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 71.5 -110o / -110u | +470 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 71.5 -110o / -110u | -625 |
The evening slate takes us to Husky Stadium for a matchup between two offense-first Pac-12 teams.
Both teams feel good about how the first half of their respective seasons have unfolded so far, but both will be looking to rebound from tough losses last week.
Quarterbacks Jayden de Laura and Michael Penix Jr. are putting up eye-popping numbers. The total is inflated to reflect that, as it is the highest total on the board as part of the loaded Week 7 slate.
Will the number go over? Or is there a better bet on the board? Let's find out.
Arizona Wildcats
Jedd Fisch has done impressive work getting this Arizona team back to competency in just one short year. The Wildcats had bottomed out, but in 2022, they have already won three games, tripling last season’s total.
The key so far has been the passing game. The aerial attack is dangerous and has single-handedly carried them to a few wins already.
De Laura transferred from Washington State and has been prolific. He has thrown for 1,874 yards and 15 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
But de Laura giveth, and de Laura taketh away. Or giveth away, or something. He’s turnover prone is what I’m trying to say.
In Arizona’s three losses, de Laura has thrown six interceptions, but has 12 Turnover Worthy Plays — four in each game. That is a shockingly high number.
Washington is only average at picking the ball off, totaling six on the season — one per game — which is middle of the pack. That could be the canary in the coal mine — multiple de Laura picks will spell a Washington blowout.
De Laura has enjoyed throwing to his star receiver Jacob Cowing. The big play UTEP transfer is fifth in FBS with 643 receiving yards and has found the end zone seven times already.
The defense is another story. This is a longer rebuild, and it is currently one of the worst in the country, let alone Power Five.
The Wildcats are slightly better against the pass (85th in Beta_Rank) than the rush (125th). They don’t really create negative plays (117th in Havoc) or do the bend-but-don’t break thing (117th in Finishing Drives).
If you want to do something on the football field, the Arizona defense will allow you to do it.
Washington Huskies
The Huskies have bounced back quickly with a complete identity change in Year One of the Kalen DeBoer era.
DeBoer arrived from Fresno State and has lived up to his billing as an offensive guru, flipping the script from the defense-first Jimmy Lake regime.
DeBoer brought in Penix from Indiana, reuniting the signal- and play-caller from the surprise Indiana Hoosiers team of 2019. The two thrive in tandem, and the Huskies' offense is fourth in passing EPA on their watch.
Washington’s offense thrives in a few other metrics, as well. In Parker Fleming’s ECKEL ratio — which measures how often a team creates scoring chances and what they do with them — the Huskies are sixth in the country in creating scoring opportunities and 15th in the country in points per ECKEL.
The Huskies will find the end zone repeatedly against an Arizona defense that doesn’t stand you up in the red zone.
In Beta_Rank, the Huskies' offense is seventh in avoiding negative drives — drives that end in a three-and-out or a turnover. This is another area where they are excellent and the Arizona defense is poor.
It’s really hard to imagine anything other than a banner day for this Huskies offense at home.
They have lost two in a row after their 4-0 start, but the offense has scored 32 and 38 in those two outings.
Washington’s defense is 53rd in SP+. The Huskies are middle of the FBS pack in most figures, although one in particular stood out: they rank 112th in allowing explosive pass plays.
The Huskies have had a strong lineage recently of quality pass defenses loaded with NFL defensive backs, and it seems that spigot might be drying this year.
We know the Arizona offense wants to chuck it around.
The Huskies' defense is 96th in allowing ECKELs and 121st in points/allowed per ECKEL.
Arizona vs. Washington Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and Washington match up statistically:
Arizona Offense vs. Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 88 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 43 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 112 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Washington Offense vs. Arizona Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 130 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 124 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 77 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 127 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 111 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 85 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 114 | 33 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.9 (24) | 25.3 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 41.8% (123) | 43.5% (118) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Arizona vs. Washington Betting Pick
Man, it would be fun to take the over on the highest point total on the board, wouldn’t it? Then sit back and enjoy watching two fun quarterbacks with good receiving corps sling the ball all over the yard.
Neither defense gets stops in the red zone.
Neither team wants to run the ball (Arizona at 123rd and Washington at 118th in Rush Rate), so the clock will be stopping frequently leading to more plays. Both teams are also fast (24th and 39th in pace, respectively).
Yeah, it would be fun, and I wouldn’t blame you. I might do it. Heck, let’s all do it.
But I also like Arizona to hang around and cover a number on the right side of 14.
Oh, the Wildcats are going to give up points. But as long as this isn’t a four-turnover de Laura game, they can hold serve in the scoring department, or at least stay around long enough to kick in the back door.
Have fun playing the over — it will be a blast. But I’ll take Arizona at +15.5 and will play it as long as it’s 14.5 or better.
Pick: Arizona +15.5 (Play to 14.5)
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