Louisville vs. Boston College Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back the Underdog in the ACC
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Phil Jurkovec (Boston College)
Louisville vs. Boston College Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -114 | 50.5 -118o / -104u | -580 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -106 | 50.5 -118o / -104u | +420 |
Boston College hopes to put an end to its nightmare start to the season as it welcomes in Louisville.
The Eagles are 1-3 through the first month of the season, with their sole victory coming against FCS opponent Maine. The program has lost all three of its matchups against FBS opponents — Rutgers, Virginia Tech and most recently, Florida State.
Louisville hasn’t fared much better by splitting its first four matchups this season.
Louisville handed Central Florida its first loss in the Bounce House in nearly three years. However, the Cardinals followed that victory with a tough loss to Florida State, who played the second half without starting quarterback Jordan Travis.
Louisville has ballooned to three-possession favorites over Boston College given the Eagles' early struggles.
Can the Eagles show some life at Alumni Stadium on Saturday afternoon?
Louisville Cardinals
It’s no secret that the Louisville offense starts and stops with quarterback Malik Cunningham. The redshirt senior is averaging nearly 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per contest, as he’s accounted for 65% of the total yards for the Louisville offense.
Cunningham is reminiscent of Louisville alum Lamar Jackson thanks to his dual-threat ability.
He’s been mediocre as a passer, averaging seven yards per attempt and tossing two touchdowns to three interceptions. But he’s been dynamite with his legs, averaging 7.1 yards per carry and finding pay dirt six times.
The backfield consists of three running backs who all average 4.7 yards per carry or better.
The Louisville defense has been hit-or-miss this season. It allowed 31 points to Syracuse in the opener and 35 to Florida State's backup quarterback. But on the other hand, it showed glimpses of hope by shutting out UCF in the second half on the road and holding USF to only three points last week.
The Cardinals rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards. Winning the line of scrimmage will be an important factor in this matchup.
Boston College Eagles
Boston College had a worst-case scenario ensue in its matchup with Florida State last week. The Seminoles returned the opening kickoff 93 yards for a touchdown before quarterback Phil Jurkovec had his second pass of the game intercepted. The Eagles trailed 14-0 in the blink of an eye.
This lead was insurmountable for the Boston College offense.
That’s been the story of the season thus far for Jeff Hafley’s squad, as the Eagles have played from behind far too often.
The issues start with the lack of a rushing attack, as the Eagles rank 127th in the nation by putting up just 43 rushing yards per game.
Patrick Garwo III was the workhorse last season who eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. But this season, that number has dropped to just 3.2 yards per carry.
The Cardinals' defensive front is certainly beatable, as they’ve allowed 4.4 yards per carry and over 160 rushing yards per game. If there is an opportunity for Boston College to get its running game going, this is it.
Jurkovec was out of sorts from the opening snap against the Seminoles. He’s been wildly inconsistent on the season, tossing seven touchdowns to five interceptions while averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
Jurkovec has leaned on Zay Flowers, who has hauled in 39% of his quarterback's completions this season. The senior receiver is the most explosive playmaker on the Eagles' roster and will need to have a big game to keep the program competitive in this matchup.
A little help from the run game wouldn’t hurt either.
Louisville vs. Boston College Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Boston College match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Boston College Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 51 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 15 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 57 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Boston College Offense vs. Louisville Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 131 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 12 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 75 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 36 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 97 | 78 |
| PFF Coverage | 87 | 114 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 37 | 108 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (39) | 27.3 (83) |
| Rush Rate | 58.9% (32) | 46.2% (105) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Louisville vs. Boston College Betting Pick
The Boston College offensive struggles have started with the lack of a rushing attack. If the Eagles can find success running the ball, then this will open opportunities for some play-action and more shots down the field.
Syracuse and Florida State completed 70% of their passes against this Louisville defense.
If there is one thing that Jurkovec has done well this season, it's the dink-and-dunk passes. That will help move the chains against Louisville and more importantly, keep Cunningham on the sideline.
This seems like a prime buy-low, sell-high position. Boston College appears to be at rock bottom, and Louisville is coming off of a dominant 41-3 victory over USF.
The Eagles have their backs against the wall, as this is a must-win game for the program. I love backing a home dog in this spot, as I anticipate we see their best effort of the season.
Boston College will do enough to keep this game within reach late in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Boston College +15.5 (Play to +14)
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