North Texas vs. UNLV Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why to Bet the Home Team

North Texas vs. UNLV Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why to Bet the Home Team article feature image

Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Doug Brumfield & Aidan Robbins (UNLV)

  • North Texas and UNLV go to battle in an afternoon college football matchup on Saturday.
  • The game takes place in Las Vegas, and the Rebels enter as small favorites.
  • Check out Kyle Remillard's full breakdown and betting pick for this game below.

North Texas vs. UNLV Odds

Saturday, Sept. 17
3 p.m. ET
Mountain West Network
North Texas Odds
-105o / -115u
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

North Texas travels to Sin City to take on the UNLV Rebels at Allegiant Stadium.

It appears the UNLV football program has turned over a new leaf this season. The Rebels lost all six of their matchups by double figures in the 2020 season. They then went 2-10 last season, but six of those losses came by one possession.

This season, the Rebels have shown improvement with a 31-point win over Idaho State in Week 0. They followed that performance up with a six-point loss to Cal that came down to the wire. The Rebels had a goal-to-go situation in the closing seconds of the game in Berkley, but couldn’t find the end zone. 

Marco Arroyo looks to have his group finally finish off some of those close games down the stretch. That could be an important factor in this matchup with North Texas.

The Mean Green are 2-1 on the season after defeating UTEP and Texas Southern handily. The group's only loss was a 38-point defeat at the hands of SMU.

The North Texas defense looked incredible in its opening game against UTEP, but the squad has come back to reality after allowing a combined 75 points to Texas Southern and SMU.

Will UNLV’s late-game struggles prevent it from a cover in this matchup?

North Texas Mean Green

The Mean Green picked up where they left off last year after returning 80% of production, according to TARP. North Texas looked strong in its victory over UTEP, and the offense didn’t disappoint against Texas Southern.

Quarterback Austin Aune has averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt while tossing seven touchdowns to two interceptions. He spreads the ball around the field and has connected with seven different receivers on his touchdown passes.

North Texas has a shared backfield between two running backs in Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway III. The two have combined to average six yards per carry while punching in five touchdowns. 

The offense has been strong, ranking 14th in the nation in Explosiveness and 20th in Havoc. The Mean Green have eight different receivers who are averaging over 10 yards per reception.

The defense is the main concern for North Texas in this matchup. SMU’s Tanner Mordecai sliced and diced the unit, as he threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns.

Last week, Texas Southern’s rushing attack piled up 220 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry.

The Mean Green defense ranks 119th in the nation in Havoc created.

UNLV Rebels

Arroyo enters his third year with the most optimism surrounding his program this season. He rebuilt the Rebels through the transfer portal and has a chance to finally make some noise in the Mountain West Conference.

Quarterback Doug Brumfield won the job in a tight quarterback competition in the preseason.

That has proven to be a good decision, as the sophomore is averaging 280 passing yards with five touchdowns to one interception. He’s averaging just shy of 10 yards per pass attempt and has found a new favorite receiver in Ricky White.

White was one of the gems found in the transfer portal after playing at Michigan State. In his first two games, he has snatched 12 balls for an average of 20 yards per reception and two touchdowns.

The UNLV defense started out its matchup against Cal by allowing two touchdowns on the Bears' first two drives and 8.4 yards per play. Over the next eight drives, the Rebels allowed just six points and 4.8 yards per play. 

The defense allowed 33 points per game last season, but has shown improvement early this year by holding a Pac-12 offense to just 20 points, while ranking inside the top 55 in Success Rate and Havoc created.

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North Texas vs. UNLV Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and UNLV match up statistically:

North Texas Offense vs. UNLV Defense
Rush Success688
Line Yards5578
Pass Success1735
Pass Blocking**10839
Finishing Drives5145
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UNLV Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Rush Success9963
Line Yards36109
Pass Success12498
Pass Blocking**2930
Finishing Drives8471
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling8185
PFF Coverage10488
SP+ Special Teams2325
Seconds per Play25.1 (42)24.9 (39)
Rush Rate61.0% (26)48.5% (86)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

North Texas vs. UNLV Betting Pick

This is the first time since 2019 that the UNLV Rebels have been favored against an FBS opponent. The program is trending in the right direction, and all the transfers whom Arroyo brought in are starting to gel.

The connection between Brumfield and White should continue to roll in this matchup against a Mean Green secondary that has been suspect this season.

On the other hand, Aune hasn’t been very impressive, as he has completed just 52% of his passes this season.

He threw all seven of his touchdowns against UTEP and Texas Southern, but in the matchup against a stronger SMU defense, he averaged only 6.4 yards per attempt while tossing two interceptions.

The improvements that UNLV has made are still not being baked into this spread. I’ve been a believer that the Rebels will be a factor in the Mountain West this season, and they will showcase that in this matchup.

Take the Rebels and watch them hit the Jackpot on the Rebel Roller Saturday afternoon.

CFB’s Best Turnover Celebrations in 2022 🔥

-UNLV's slot machine 🎰
-Pitt’s basketball hoop 💪
-Oregon State's chainsaw ⛓
-UAB's dragon skull 🐉

Full list:

(via B/R’s @Brad_Shepard, @unlvfootball)

— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 6, 2022

Pick: UNLV -2.5 (Play to -4)

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