College Football Odds & Picks: Sharp Betting, Projections for 3 Saturday Games, Including Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Ian Book
Week 10 of the college football season is upon us, and sharps are making moves. Well, they’ve really been making moves since this start of the week, but by this point those moves are quite evident.
In some cases, those moves align with the picks our experts have made. In others, our projections are showing there’s still value at the current number. But whatever the case may be, our PRO Report feature makes it all apparent in one place.
Let’s take a look at how it’s finding value on three of Saturday’s matchups, including what might be the biggest game of the weekend …
- 3:30 p.m. ET | Minnesota vs. Illinois
- 7 p.m. ET | Baylor vs. Iowa State
- 7:30 p.m. ET | Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Note: Data as of 4 p.m. ET Friday.
Minnesota vs. Illinois
3:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
This has been among the most clear displays of sharp action on Saturday’s slate, with the pros targeting the underdog in a big way.
As of writing, Minnesota is the most popular spread pick of the weekend, landing 77% of the tickets placed on this matchup. But even with their popularity, the Gophers have fallen from -7.5 to -7, which should tell you something about the bettors on the other side.
Sure enough, Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed Illinois to be the sharp side with nine signals on the Illini, each revealing an instance of market activity indicative of sharp action.
Sharp Action edge: Illinois
Further revealing a sharp backing of Illinois, the 23% of bettors on the dog have generated 38% of actual money. Of course, that’s still a minority, but it’s a significantly higher percentage, meaning the bettors on Illinois are making bigger bets.
And while big bets can come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from sharps over a large sample.
Big Money edge: Illinois
Baylor vs. Iowa State
7 p.m. ET | FOX Sports 1
Once again, sharps are moving lines in this Big 12 matchup. This time, though, the shift is much bigger, and one of our PRO betting systems helps explain why.
It’s unlikely that a full-touchdown line move would come without some sort of assistance from sharps, and in this case, Sports Insights Bet Signals have revealed five instances of sharp action hitting this under, most recently at a total of 48.5.
Sharp Action edge: Under
The under has been the slightly more popular play on the total (though that could change with the influx of game day bets), but even with the 54% of tickets it’s landed, it’s still drawing a much higher percentage of money — 84%, to be exact.
Big Money edge: Under
One likely reason for all the sharp attraction to the under? The weather.
With the game expected to be played in winds around 17 mph, it fits into our Windy Unders PRO betting system, which boasts a 57% win rate on a sample of more than 1,000 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Under
Clemson vs. Notre Dame
7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
Despite Trevor Lawrence missing his second straight game following a positive COVID-19 test, top-ranked Clemson is still a moderate favorite over No. 4 Notre Dame. But according to sharps, as well as our experts and projections, the line is a bit too high.
While this line’s move from its earliest opener might suggest sharp action on Clemson, the brunt of that pro money didn’t hit this game until the line had already approached — and in some cases reached — a touchdown margin.
Since then, four SI Bet Signals have confirmed sharp moves on Notre Dame, including two most recently at the current number (+5.5).
Sharp Action edge: Notre Dame
For sharps to be betting the Irish, they must be projecting a smaller line than what’s being listed on the market — and we are, too. Our college football model, compiled by Collin Wilson, pegs Notre Dame at +2.3, which suggest significant value at the current spread given the importance of the number 3 in football betting.
Model Projection edge: Notre Dame
Given the edge on the home team, two of our experts have already bet Notre Dame at the time of writing.
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Top Experts edge: Notre Dame