Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss College Football Odds, Picks, Preview: Can Matt Corral & Rebels Cover as Significant Favorites? (Nov. 20)

Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss College Football Odds, Picks, Preview: Can Matt Corral & Rebels Cover as Significant Favorites? (Nov. 20) article feature image
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Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jerrion Ealy.

  • Ole Miss hosts Vanderbilt on Saturday for a cross-division SEC showdown.
  • Matt Corral announced this will be his finals home game for the 8-2 Rebels as they are 36.5-point favorites over the Commodores.
  • Collin Barnes breaks down the game and gives his top pick, below.

Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss Odds

Saturday, Nov. 20
7:30 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Vanderbilt Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+36.5
-105
64.5
-120o / +100u
N/A
Ole Miss Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-36.5
-115
64.5
-120o / +100u
N/A
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Vanderbilt will venture to the greatest college town in America (not up for debate) Saturday night to take on Ole Miss.

The Commodores enter on a five-game losing streak and are still looking for their first SEC win of not just the season, but the last two years. Vanderbilt’s last SEC win came in October 2019.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season against Texas A&M. Last week was the Rebels’ second win in a row as they moved to 8-2 on the season.

While Vanderbilt has been one of the worst teams in the SEC and all of college football, the Commodores have consistently found ways to cover the spread, doing so in three of their last five games.

This week’s spread opened at 34 and has made its way up to 36.5. That’s the highest spread in this series over at least the last 10 years, shattering the previous high of 27 in 2015, a game in which Vanderbilt covered, losing 27-16.

This week will also be just the sixth time in the last 50 years that the Rebels play Vanderbilt ranked inside the AP Top 25. The last time Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt by more than 36 was in 2014, when the Rebels won, 41-3. Before that, the last time was 1993, when they defeated the Commodores, 49-7.

Coming off of an emotional win over A&M that was also very physical, and with the Egg Bowl just four days later, is this spread too high for the Rebels in what appears to be a sandwich spot?


Vanderbilt Commodores

Clark Lea’s first year in Nashville has gone how most expected: 2-8 and still trying to end a 19-game SEC losing streak. But coming into a program that hasn’t finished above .500 since 2012 while also playing in the best conference in the country (also not up for debate) is no easy task.

There’s clear improvement going on in Nashville. The Commodores are a much better team since losing by 20 to East Tennessee in the first game of the season.

They lost to Kentucky last week but covered the 21.5 point spread, losing by only 17. And just a few weeks ago, they nearly upset South Carolina on the road, losing by just one as an 18.5-point dog.

There are areas where they can find success — one being against a Rebel defense that allows an average of 27.2 points per game. However, Lea said Tuesday that quarterback Ken Seals is currently “day-to-day” and suffered an injury against Kentucky that won’t impact his availability but may affect his performance.

The Commodores are averaging 295 yards and 16.4 points per game, numbers that if I think they can post this weekend and should help them against a Rebels team that may be looking ahead to the Egg Bowl. Defensively, they are allowing 475 yards and 36.8 points per game.

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Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss is obviously a better team than Vanderbilt; there is absolutely no doubt about that. The Rebels average 510 yards and 35 points per game, ranking inside the top 30 teams nationally in passing and rushing yards per game.

But I think this game is more than just the stats these teams have put up so far this season. The Rebels are coming off an incredibly physical game against A&M, while Ole Miss has had injury issues what feels like the entire season.

Potential Heisman quarterback Matt Corral has been playing through an ankle/foot injury, while receivers Braylon Sanders, Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo have all suffered injuries on and off the entire season.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ole Miss pulls starters to keep them healthy or rest some entirely in preparation for the Egg Bowl next week.


Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Ole Miss match up statistically:

Vanderbilt Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 123 123
Line Yards 125 118
Pass Success 111 92
Pass Blocking** 25 23
Big Play 130 84
Havoc 69 64
Finishing Drives 106 86
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Ole Miss Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 2 116
Line Yards 24 114
Pass Success 29 122
Pass Blocking** 39 124
Big Play 9 120
Havoc 45 104
Finishing Drives 59 117
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 61 85
Coverage 115 32
Middle 8 121 48
SP+ Special Teams 113 27
Plays per Minute 78 3
Rush Rate 49.8% (98) 58.8% (40)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick

Thirty-four was already too many points, yet this spread continues to climb.

I think Ole Miss will ease off the gas in the second half in preparation for the Egg Bowl while Vanderbilt finds a way to put at least a few points on the Ole Miss defense.

It’s an ugly pick, but I think it’s the right play this week. I got Vanderbilt at +36.5, and while I don’t think it will go down, I wouldn’t go any lower than 35.

Pick: Vanderbilt +35 or better

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