College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks: Our Top Bet for Wake Forest vs. Clemson (November 20)
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Shipley.
Wake Forest vs. Clemson Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | +160 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | -200 |
Coming into the year, we all thought the ACC was Clemson's conference to lose.
Well, after a pair of early-season losses, it left the door open for other programs on the rise. The one team that has prevailed and surpassed all expectations is Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons are a victory away from their first double-digit win season since 2006. A win here would not only secure the double-digit win season but will also save them a seat in the ACC Championship game.
On the other side of the field, this should be considered a lost season for the Tigers. A team that was a perennial national title contender is as far away from the College Football Playoff as it's been in half a decade.
Though all hope should not be lost, as Clemson still has a shot to win the ACC title. It will need help to get there, though. The Tigers will have to win out and have both the Demon Deacons and NC State lose out.
With the stage set for these to conference foes to clash, who will prevail and ultimately pack their bags for Charlotte?
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Slingin' Sam Hartman Leading Wake Forest
If you haven't watched Wake Forest this season, you're missing something truly special.
Sophomore quarterback Sam Hartman has put the entire Demon Deacons program on his back. He's in the top 10 in the country among FBS quarterbacks in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR.
He not only has the ability to sling it down the field but has displayed great accuracy and ball placement. Look at this dime he dropped against North Carolina:
If you missed the Sam Hartman to A.T. Perry TD, yeah it was 🔥🔥
— Antwan V. Staley (@antwanstaley) November 6, 2021
For all of Hartman's success, the Demon Deacons attack with a balanced offensive scheme.
The three-headed monster of Christian Beal-Smith, Justice Ellison and Christian Turner have combined to rush for an average of 184 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. Those totals rank 48th and 57th, respectively.
This matchup against the Clemson defense will certainly be Wake Forest's toughest test of the season. The Tigers boast a top-10 unit and have some numbers that point to the Demon Deacons having all sorts of struggles.
Hartman will be facing a secondary that ranks 15th in coverage, 11th in yards per pass, and seventh in big plays allowed.
Clemson Tigers
Tigers Playing for Redemption
The struggles of D.J. Uiagalelei have been well documented throughout the season.
He certainly did not impress in his lastest matchup against a bottom-five team in UConn. Uiagalelei completed only 47% of his passes and tossed an interception.
Though for all the flack that Uiagalelei and the Clemson offense have gotten this season, they have managed to score enough to win games of late.
The only aspect of their offense that has given them any consistency is the running game. The cog in that attack has been freshman Will Shipley. Even though he missed a few games due to injury, Shipley's production has been a factor in every Clemson win, as he's carried the ball at a 4.7 yards-per-carry rate and found the end zone on multiple occasions.
Looking at the Demon Deacons, there are reasons to believe that the Shipley and the Tigers could have another big day on the ground.
The Wake Forest defense is 115th in Rushing Success and 119th in Defensive Line Yards. It allows opposing backs to rush for an average of 209 yards per game at five yards per carry. Those numbers rank 114th and 106th, respectively, amongst FBS defenses.
Wake Forest vs. Clemson Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wake Forest and Clemson match up statistically:
Wake Forest Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 13 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 102 | 67 | |
| Big Play | 85 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 2 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Clemson Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 96 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 55 | 69 | |
| Big Play | 116 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 100 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 44 |
| Coverage | 24 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 34 | 106 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 23 | 16 |
| Plays per Minute | 6 | 30 |
| Rush Rate | 53.% (80) | 50.6% (91) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Wake Forest vs. Clemson Betting Pick
The market has come in early on the Tigers, as their elite defense, paired with a decided advantage on the ground, gives them the edge in this contest.
I agree with the early line move — though unfortunately, it has eliminated any value on the side of the Tigers. If the number moves back down to three, I would recommend grabbing it.
At current market prices, the best value in this game is the under.
Clemson's defense will slow down Hartman and the explosiveness of the Demon Deacons. With Wake in its biggest offensive struggle of the season and the Tigers eating up time by keeping the ball on the ground, this game goes under the total.
Pick: Under 57
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