We're back with the Big Ten in 2026.
Last season, Indiana was crowned national champion after beating Miami in the title game in South Florida. But with Fernando Mendoza gone to the NFL, there should be room for a new team looking to raise the Big Ten regular-season crown.
So, where does the value lie? Let's dive into our 2026 Big Ten Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2026 Big Ten Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ohio State | +180 |
| Oregon | +240 |
| Indiana | +260 |
| USC | +1600 |
| Michigan | +1700 |
| Penn State | +2200 |
| Washington | +2400 |
| Iowa | +4500 |
| Wisconsin | +13500 |
| Nebraska | +15000 |
| Illinois | +16000 |
| UCLA | +17000 |
| Minnesota | +20000 |
| Northwestern | +50000 |
| Maryland | +50000 |
| Rutgers | +60000 |
| Michigan State | +60000 |
| Purdue | +100000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Monday, Aug 17
Pick to Win Big Ten: Ohio State Buckeyes
I think Ohio State beats Oregon, which gets the Ducks to the College Football Playoff without playing in the Big Ten Championship game.
I'm going Ohio State winning the league over Indiana. But honestly, it doesn't matter who the Buckeyes play thanks to tiebreakers.
With Penn State's schedule, it could reach the title game.
Surprise Contender in Big Ten: Penn State
I talked a little about Penn State above, but I'm taking the Nittany Lions to make the CFP, so I can see them as the dark horse to win this conference.
Their schedule is one of the softest power-conference schedules I've seen in my life, and I love the hiring of D’Anton Lynn as defensive coordinator.
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By Collin Wilson
Running back Bo Jackson taking split reps in camp is an interesting storyline. He averaged 4.1 yards after first contact last season, though maybe he showed up to camp a little heavy.
The bigger conversation surrounding Ohio State is the hiring of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator.
If he comes in running heavy 12 personnel and pounding the ball on standard downs, Buckeyes fans will lose their minds if Jeremiah Smith only gets two targets a game.
When Ryan Day was asked if Smith would just copy-paste his NFL offense, Day pointed out that Matt Patricia changed things up on defense last year, proving an NFL coach can come into college and adjust his system.
But is Arthur Smith really going to throw out everything he’s called his entire career?
The flip side is that people were worried about Patricia last year and that worked out fine, so maybe Day deserves the benefit of the doubt.
However, Smith loves multiple tight-end sets, and Ohio State just lost two All-Big Ten tight ends to the top three rounds of the NFL Draft. Now they're relying on Nate Roberts and a few portal additions who function mainly as blockers.
That tight end room isn't the strength of this team. The strength is having Smith — the best receiver in college football — alongside Chris Henry Jr., Brandon Inniss and a deep receiving corps.
Ohio State will likely play slow and methodical to protect its depth over a long season, but leaning into two tight-end sets with a downgraded tight end room is definitely a trend worth monitoring.
Of course, the Buckeyes won't show any of their real play-calling against Ball State anyway.
That brings up the Texas matchup, which stands out as a prime Game of the Year play with Texas around -122 on the moneyline.
Ohio State lost Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles on defense. You don't win a national title without Downs plugging gaps and roaming the back end as a hybrid nickel-safety. Losing that level of locker room presence, experience and back-seven leadership is massive.
You can bring in five-star talent, but you can't instantly replace that experience.
Steve Sarkisian and Texas are going to attack that re-tooled secondary with its wide receiver room and Cam Coleman. Sarkisian won the box score heavily in their last matchup, and he’s going to go right back after Ohio State's defensive backfield.
There's no edge in the point spread number for me whatsoever. Ohio State is actually my highest power-rated team, but I'm taking Texas at home to attack that secondary and have plenty of success.
Meanwhile, on Ohio State's win total, I'm bullish at 10.7 wins. But I'm not playing win totals when they're set this high. And I'll be making adjustments real quick if this offense doesn't show me something against Texas.
Pick: Texas ML -122 vs. Ohio State
By Collin Wilson
I’m passing on Oregon to win the Big Ten in case there’s a rematch of last year's CFP quarterfinal against Ohio State, but this defense is going to completely erase opposing run games this season.
We've gotten good news on the injury front this week, too. The original word on running back Jordon Davison was that he’d miss 6-8 weeks. They’ve already updated his timeline, and he’s back at practice, so that’s no longer a concern.
Injuries really derailed the Ducks last year. They were six or seven deep on the pass-catching depth chart with guys hurt, so the weapons were depleted across the board. Yet, they still dropped 50 points on James Madison and shut out Texas Tech.
Looking at Dante Moore’s numbers, his production under pressure is night and day compared to the UCLA version of himself that burned me every week as a freshman. He faced 114 pressures last year and only had five turnover-worthy plays.
Plus, he showed up to Big Ten Media Days looking physically transformed. He ended last season at 203 pounds and is up to 225 now. He's built like a tank.
Looking at the schedule, Oregon gets two full weeks to prepare for Bob Chesney and UCLA. I was a little hesitant at first, thinking back to how Chesney brought JMU into Eugene and covered the spread. But with two weeks for Oregon to prep, I’m not worried.
As for the road trip to Illinois coming off a bye: Bret Bielema is 9-3 against the spread with extra time or leading into a bowl game. He thrives with extra preparation.
However, Illinois is an absolute dumpster fire in the trenches, so that trip doesn't scare me.
Oregon could drop the game to Ohio State, and it wouldn't even matter. The Ducks don't need a Big Ten title to get where they want to go.
The defensive line unit is the absolute best in college football, and I’ll put my money behind that all day, especially with the firepower they have at the skill positions.
Barring a wave of massive injuries like last year, this team is playing for a national title. The 8-1 ticket to win the National Championship is still out there, and it’s the play.
I'm only holding one other future to win it all, and it's in the SEC for the matchup I expect to see in the final game.
Pick: Oregon to Win the CFP National Championship (+800)
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By Collin Wilson
Do I expect a drop-off with Indiana? No, and that comes down to Curt Cignetti’s culture.
During a breakout session, he explained his player evaluation like looking at apples in a batch. He inspects them daily for bruises, sets bruised ones aside, and if the damage gets worse, he moves on.
He isn't running an SEC-style program that throws cash at high-talent, high-maintenance recruits. Indiana has deep NIL resources, but Cignetti strictly targets high-character players.
When Josh Hoover entered the portal from TCU, my first reaction was concern over his turnover history.
That played out publicly when Sonny Dykes voiced frustration over Hoover's mistakes, while Cignetti pointed out that Hoover would finally have a strong run game and a reliable defense behind him.
Cignetti designs his offense in a way that the quarterback doesn't have to force bad throws.
At Big Ten Media Days, I asked Cignetti to compare Mendoza and Hoover. He noted that Hoover brings more natural talent and raw tools, whereas Mendoza stood out for his work ethic, mental preparation and raw arm strength.
Hoover’s baseline metrics back up Cignetti's trust. Hoover ranked 32nd in on-target rate last year, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Accuracy isn't his issue. He was simply asked to carry too much of the load at TCU. When under pressure, his turnover-worthy play rate jumped from 4% to 12%.
But with Turbo Richard (who averaged 3.8 yards after contact) and a backfield that can turn simple dump-offs into huge gains, Hoover won't be forced to press.
The Hoosiers' schedule has a few landmines. The first half is forgiving, making the road trip to Nebraska their first true test.
The real danger area is a physical matchup against P.J. Fleck’s Minnesota team right after back-to-back games against Ohio State and Michigan. Trench depth and injuries will be tested there.
I project Indiana at 11 wins, but I wouldn't touch its regular-season win total. The schedule limits the betting value.
Instead, the best play is taking Indiana at +160 on DraftKings to make the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Even if the Hoosiers don't host a first-round game, getting +160 on a single quarterfinal game with Cignetti’s staff on a neutral field is fantastic value.
I don't see this program regressing.
Pick: Indiana to Make CFP Semifinals (+160 · DraftKings)
By Collin Wilson
USC hired Gary Patterson as defensive coordinator in January of this year, and it got me wondering what he's actually been up to lately.
He spent some time on staff at Texas, and they didn't ask him to come back. Then he took a job on Baylor's staff, only to mutually part ways with the team right before the season started.
I don't know if he’s just holding out for an on-field coaching gig instead of an analyst role, but something feels off.
USC lost a defensive coordinator who was massively successful at turning that defense around immediately. But when you look at Patterson, he stepped in to coordinate this defense for the bowl game against TCU.
In the FBS, missing around nine tackles in a game is pretty average. Once you hit double digits, that’s a red flag, and it points directly to poor form, bad fundamentals, and ultimately, coaching.
In that bowl game under Patterson, the defense missed 18 tackles. That’s a massive problem.
Toward the end of his tenure at TCU, his defenses started getting notoriously sloppy on the fundamentals, and seeing 18 missed tackles in a bowl game he coached doesn't inspire any confidence, especially stacked on top of whatever happened at Baylor.
There are other issues with USC beyond Patterson, too.
Jayden Maiava actually took a step back last year. His turnover-worthy play rate went up, even though his wide receivers dropped fewer passes. His mistakes were self-inflicted, not the fault of his target tree, which is concerning.
Having two bye weeks on the schedule should theoretically help, but the Trojans have to travel to face both Wisconsin and Indiana.
And what is the deal with Lincoln Riley traveling across two time zones? He's a coach I simply don't want to back in those spots.
I actually had a long off-the-podium conversation with a Big Ten coach about this exact issue. I wanted to know why three specific teams in this conference travel two time zones with zero issue, while everyone else struggles to cover the spread.
Riley consistently has massive problems handling those time zone transitions.
I project USC at 7.4 wins, so I’m taking under 8.5 at -130. This Trojan team is nowhere near as good as people think.
Pick: USC Under 8.5 Wins (-130)
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By Stuckey
This Michigan coaching staff is so much better than last year. Upgrading to Kyle Whittingham over Sherrone Moore, and Jason Beck over Chip Lindsey are massive improvements.
Beyond that, there's obviously a ton of talent here. For the second straight year, they're in the top 30 in returning production.
But with these big coaching upgrades, it basically comes down to one question: Do you believe in Bryce Underwood, and does he take that next step?
He definitely has areas to clean up. He struggles under pressure and with his footwork. But Beck has proven he can turn around an offense and elevate a quarterback in Year 1.
I'm not fully sold on Underwood yet, but he was just a true freshman last year, so a major leap is well within reason.
The defense has clear talent, and people forget how young the offense was last season.
They also bring in a really good offensive line coach alongside Beck. There will be some camp battles up front, but if Andrew Babalola can win that left tackle job and perform well, everything else on the offensive line should fall into place.
They brought in some key transfers from Utah to shore up the defense, along with Jaime Ffrench and JJ Buchanan to give the wide receiver room some juice.
But again, it hinges on Underwood. Is he the guy, or does Tommy Carr take over midway through the season, turning this into a rebuilding year for next fall? There's such a wide range of potential outcomes here.
And the secondary is absolutely loaded. They have Zeke Berry and Jyaire Hill at cornerback, Smith Snowden coming in at nickel safety and Rod Moore returning from injury.
This defense could be truly special.
So, do I want to bet the over or under on 8.5 wins? When you look at the schedule, the Wolverines have to play the top three teams. They go on the road to face Ohio State and head out to Oregon late in the year.
Where will this team be by then? Who knows. They also host Indiana.
Right there, that’s three potential losses, which caps you at nine wins if you take care of business everywhere else. And that’s no guarantee.
So, if you lean toward Michigan’s over or under, my advice is don't tie up your money on a win total right now.
Pick: Pass
By Collin Wilson
I love Benjamin Brahmer. Seeing a 6-foot-7, 250-plus pound tight end built like a house is impossible not to like.
You also have to love how manageable the nonconference schedule is. The Nittany Lions open with games like Marshall and Temple, where they just have to take a quick bus ride.
It's tough to figure out when Penn State gets truly tested. USC has to come to Happy Valley, but Lincoln Riley struggles traveling across three time zones.
Beyond the favorable path, they still return key holdovers on defense, but the biggest reason to love this team is the defensive coordinator hire. I have no idea how Matt Campbell pulled off landing D’Anton Lynn.
Getting Lynn to come back to his alma mater after that extended coaching search was a massive home run.
Remember where USC was before Lynn got there? The Trojans ranked last in the FBS in tackling. Lynn slipped across town right before their bowl game against Louisville, and USC went from missing tackles constantly to missing just six in that game.
The following year, they jumped into the top 30 in tackling and were top-50 across almost every major category. The guy is a magician as a defensive coordinator, brings elite NFL and college pedigree.
There’s never been any doubt about his coaching ability.
On top of having Lynn running the defense, the Nittany Lions avoid both Oregon and Ohio State. USC has to travel three time zones, and while a road trip to Washington or a matchup against Michigan off a bye could be tricky, this team should top out at two losses max in conference play.
In this landscape, 10 wins guarantees a College Football Playoff spot. Getting Penn State at +360 to make the College Football Playoff is a fantastic position to hold. There's just very little case to be made for a nine-win floor with this setup.
And with my win total projected at 10.8, taking over 9.5 at +140 juice makes total sense, too.
Pick: Penn State to Make College Football Playoff (+360) · Penn State Over 9.5 Wins (+140)
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By Stuckey
Washington might be one of the teams that benefited the most in the Big Ten from this new "five in five" rule.
It’s not a star player, but starting defensive tackle Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei is now eligible and practicing with the team. He got an extra year through this new rule from the 2022 class.
Defensive tackle was one of the weakest positions on the team, as the Huskies really could've used another reliable starter. Having him back plugs a major hole, raises their floor and fixes the depth because he’s going to be starting.
That was one of my biggest questions about this roster.
You obviously have Demond Williams Jr. back at quarterback. Can he take that next step in bigger games against better competition? That's when he really struggles. He can look electric and put up massive numbers against inferior teams, but he needs to show up in those marquee matchups.
They have a great home-field advantage, but this is still a young team building depth.
You have to remember the situation head coach Jedd Fisch walked into.
While Fisch will call plays this year, they’re now top-20 in returning production. That's a huge leap considering they had virtually no returning starters in year one and were ranked 85th in returning production last season.
You have a quarterback with NFL potential coming back. On defense, they lose 12 of their top 18 tacklers — including four to the NFL Draft — but they get a bunch of guys back who were injured.
A couple of linebackers are returning, and Isaiah Ward is healthy now.
I like their linebacker room. Plus, you have a secondary full of guys like Rahshawn Clark, Dylan Robinson and Rylon Dillard-Allen who played as underclassmen. Can they take that next step?
Along the offensive line, they bring four starters back.
They lost stud left tackle, Carver Willis, who was drafted in the fourth round, but the key to the offense might be Kodi Greene, who has all the tools and will likely start at left tackle. He's a freak athlete.
If he plugs in seamlessly without too many growing pains, this offensive line could be very good.
The real question is whether the running back position is up to snuff. They lost a couple of pieces, and then you ask: Is there an alpha wide receiver?
After losing Denzel Boston, they're counting on Christian Moss from Kennesaw State and others. The skill positions are definitely a step back, which might hold them back.
Overall, I think they’re priced appropriately. It’s ultimately going to come down to scheduling spots.
Pick: Pass
By Stuckey
In a conference full of teams that are returning a ton of production, Iowa is one of the outliers. The Hawkeyes sit outside the top 100 in returning production, and they lost quarterback Mark Gronowski, who signed as an NFL free agent.
This quarterback situation isn't exactly promising with Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown.
I know the offensive line is going to be good because it's the Hawkeyes and they have a couple of really good starters coming back. But they lost three All-Big Ten offensive linemen to the NFL, so the line will take a step back.
The wide receiver room is a question mark, too. I keep hearing about Tony Diaz from UT Rio Grande Valley, but how much of a difference is he really going to make?
DJ Vonnahme showed a lot of promise at tight end, but the offensive line is going to be worse, and the quarterback play is a disaster.
By the way, this was such a senior-laden team last year. This is just a rebuilding year for Iowa in 2026-27.
I'm sure the Hawkeyes will voodoo their way into a lot of wins, which is scary, but they lost a ton of seniors (27 seniors last year, 16 of them starters).
And special teams might be a concern now — which it never is — but they have a coach in that phase. They have a D-III punter. They lost Kaden Wetjen, who was one of the best returners in college football and got drafted because of it.
And then one of my biggest concerns for this team is that the defensive line looks weak. In a Phil Parker defense, you need players to eat blocks, take on double teams and fill gaps, but this defensive line may not do that.
They had to add nine FCS transfers to this defense alone just to patch these holes.
I know that they're one of five teams to win eight-plus games every year since 2015, excluding COVID. The others are Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama and Georgia, which is obviously good company. But that includes the postseason.
They did win only seven in the regular season in 2017 and 2022, though. It's something that happens every four to five years, and I think this is the year again.
Pick: Iowa Under 7.5 Wins (+120)
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By Collin Wilson
If I did a blind resume and you showed me Colton Joseph's numbers, I would think it's Cam Ward. He has 43 all-purpose touchdowns in his career, but he has 24 rushing touchdowns and 22 fumbles.
Everybody at Wisconsin is excited to get Joseph, and yes, he was great at Old Dominion, but there are real mistakes that exist with him.
After a 4-8 season, Wisconsin hit the reset button, but not quietly.
The school kept Luke Fickell, backed him with a promise of significantly increased AD investment, and then basically kicked the door in on the transfer portal. More than 30 transfers later, nearly every position group looks different.
The headline moves are skill additions: running backs Abu Sama (Iowa State) and Bryan Jackson (USC) give the offense new playmaking options and a little more juice in the backfield.
That splashier side of the roster makeover gets the headlines, but the bigger picture is more stark. Wisconsin is replacing graduating offensive and defensive linemen and is thin and young in the secondary.
Put bluntly, this is a true rebuild in Year 4.
There are some positives to hang onto. The unit still returns 4,519 offensive line snaps, which ranks 30th in FBS.
But between the veteran snaps and a mostly new roster around them, expect Wisconsin to feel like a work in progress early while the new pieces settle in.
The bright side is the schedule. Michigan State in Week 5 is a game Wisconsin desperately needs to get right. The Badgers are going to need that for a third win after Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan.
Then you have USC traveling to Camp Randall, and I don't like the Trojans traveling. Maryland is a coin-flip game, too. The Terps are a one-trick pony on offense, and that's generally what Wisconsin can shut down.
There's a lot to like from a schedule standpoint, but the roster isn't terrific.
The offensive line has too many questions for me, and they're taking on Notre Dame in Week 1, so I worry about injuries in the trench early in the season.
Pick: Pass
By Stuckey
Dylan Raiola was the most overrated quarterback in the country last year. He had a 35% pressure-to-sack rate. But the Huskers are bringing in Geep Wade as the offensive line coach, so that's a big upgrade.
They bring in Anthony Colandrea, whose pressure-to-sack rate is way down, and he can actually run, unlike Raiola.
Then you look up front, and their offensive line is strong with a lot of returnees. They have a lot of experience on the line with 191 career starts.
Pair that with a much better offensive line coach and a quarterback who isn't going to take a billion sacks, and I like where this team is headed.
On top of that, this defense is moving to a new scheme under Rob Aurich, who led a huge turnaround at San Diego State and brought a couple of guys like Dwayne McDougle III and Owen Chambliss with him.
Their secondary was very good last year, and they had a couple of guys who started as freshmen. Vincent Shavers Jr. and Williams Nwaneri also started as freshmen, so a good, young defense is getting an upgrade in coaching and scheme.
Plus, there's a true freshman cornerback, Danny Odem III, who I really love and might end up playing a lot.
If they can just figure out the defensive line, I like where this team is headed.
Pick: Nebraska Over 6.5 Wins (+115)
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By Collin Wilson
Bret Bielema got up there at Big Ten Media Days and immediately kind of nipped things in the bud, saying that Illinois went the JUCO route and that they've gone that route before. It's almost like he knew the question was coming.
They know this is a rebuilding year. They're also hyping up Colorado State left tackle transfer Christian Martin, who isn't all that good. Overall, the trenches are taking a big step back in Champaign.
Quarterback Katin Houser is no stranger to having to be on the run, and I think that's what's going to have to happen this season.
Now, to his credit, his numbers showed twice as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays, and Bielema is really good with transfer quarterbacks. That part won't be the problem.
Houser had nine rushing touchdowns last year, so he can move. But is he going to be the only offense? We've seen it before with Pat Bryant's injury, where they had no weapons on the outside, and all of a sudden, Luke Altmyer was the leading rusher.
I have the Illini at 7.2 wins. I'm not impressed with the defense or the offensive line, and they only have four Big Ten home games.
I lean under, but it's just juiced too much because it has been hit hard.
The only point I'd like to say is Bielema is great with extra time. He's 9-3 against the spread in bowl games and off extra weeks. And look at who they're playing off a bye: Oregon at home.
The spread is going to be big (it should be close to three touchdowns, 18 or 19 points), so that's a spot I'm looking at.
Pick: Pass
By Collin Wilson
I feel like I've flip-flopped on this team four times in the last two months.
When Bob Chesney got hired, I was all-in. He has a proven offensive track record everywhere he’s been, and he comes across as incredibly sharp and well-put-together in interviews.
Then I started looking closer into Nico Iamaleava's numbers. All of the rushing success I thought he had wasn't even from designed runs; they were just scrambles.
His pressure-to-sack ratio dropped from around 25% to 18%, which is an improvement but still way too high.
Back at Tennessee, he was almost a statue in the pocket until he started moving around more. Once I realized his highlights were almost entirely unscripted scrambles rather than designed runs, it made me re-evaluate UCLA.
However, Chesney told me he and Sean McVay are friends and that he has already talked to him extensively about how the Rams handle coast-to-coast travel when flying out to the East Coast.
They take off at the same time, land at the same time and stick to the exact same routine on every single road trip.
The schedule is a positive for me, so even though I'm not all-in on the roster, I do like the Bruins to win seven or more games.
Pick: UCLA Over 6.5 Wins (+110)
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By Collin Wilson
I think the win total is right and juiced correctly for this Minnesota team. But the Gophers' bowl season eligibility resides completely on winning three of these four games: Mississippi State, Iowa, UCLA and Northwestern.
Drake Lindsey comes back after a strong redshirt-freshman season with an 18:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a near-even big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
However, he did post five turnover-worthy plays in the Rate Bowl against New Mexico.
Offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh Jr. plans to lean into the pass this year after Lindsey handled 418 dropbacks in 2025.
The run game has continuity with running back Darius Taylor returning for a fourth season. Taylor’s profile is a grinder at 3.8 yards after first contact for his career, so he’s the kind of back who will help sustain drives and pick up the dirty yards.
The receiver room is mostly intact: three of the top four targets return, headlined by Javon Tracy (1.4 YRR) and Jalen Smith (1.8 YRR). The portal also added some pieces in Perry Thompson (Auburn), Noah Jennings (Cincinnati) and Zion Steptoe (Tulsa), which should help the depth and add new matchup options.
The offensive line continuity is respectable as well, ranking 51st in FBS. That kind of experience can smooth a push toward a more pass-heavy scheme.
Defensively, six of the top 10 tacklers are back. Leading the group is linebacker Maverick Baranowski, who piled up over 100 tackles last year along with three sacks. That kind of production gives the front seven a reliable anchor.
The schedule has a few quirks. Only four Big Ten games are at home this season. There’s a tricky sandwich spot in Week 3: Akron sits between a home game vs. Mississippi State and a trip to Washington.
Both Iowa and Minnesota come off byes in Week 8. Notably, this team avoids Ohio State and Oregon on the slate but does travel to Indiana and Penn State.
Running back Darius Taylor should absolutely eat that Iowa defensive line alive. UCLA isn't expected to have a great run defense, and Minnesota's defense isn't going to have any problem containing Nico Iamaleava.
If they do win three out of those four mentioned at the top, they're a bowl team, but I'm not going to bank on it with my bets.
Pick: Pass
By Stuckey
Aidan Chiles transfers to Northwestern and looks like the man at quarterback this season. But the big news is new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
The Wildcats have a new stadium (the most expensive in college football), which is going to presumably open for the Penn State game. Because of that, they have a bye in Week 2, which means they play 11 straight games to end the year.
David Braun is a good coach, as he's always seemed to exceed expectations. His team will fight.
Ultimately, the biggest thing is that Chiles fits Kelly's system with RPOs and the other things the former head coach wants to do.
Chiles is a true dual-threat, similar to a Dorian Thompson-Robinson-type runner from Kelly’s UCLA days. He can make plays with his legs as much as his arm.
The ground game returns plenty, with Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon combining for roughly 1,400 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns from last season. That kind of backfield continuity matters.
The passing game has continuity, too. Six of the top eight receivers are back, including Griffin Wilde, who drew 107 targets a year ago.
Up front, returning offensive line snaps total 3,212, which ranks 90th in FBS — enough experience to be useful but not elite continuity.
There are some things to like on offense, and if you believe that Chiles has the tools, then the Wildcats could surprise.
However, I don't believe in him, so I'll go under.
Pick: Northwestern Under 5.5 Wins (-130)
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By Collin Wilson
I'm projecting 5.9 wins for Maryland.
Once upon a time, Arkansas hired Clint Trickett as offensive coordinator, and then he left two months later. That uptempo offense with vertical passing is going to be fantastic for the Terps, so schematically, I like what they are.
Malik Washington returns after a record-setting true freshman year that saw him put up Maryland freshman records for passing yards (2,963) and touchdowns (17).
However, Washington is suddenly staring at a hole at receiver after losing his top three targets. Those departures create an obvious short-term gap in playmaking and depth.
Enter the transfer portal: Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding and Ejani Shakir project as the most realistic options to step in at wideout. Neither is a perfect mirror of the guys Washington just lost, but both bring experience and immediate availability, which matters when you need production now.
This duo is part of a much bigger roster shake-up. The Terps brought in 26 players, headlined by five-star edge Zion Elee. That class clearly shifts the roster construction, bolstering the front and giving some cover for the turnover at receiver.
What does that mean for the handicap? The uptempo passing game has to take advantage of softer secondaries on the schedule.
Well, guess what? They have four coin-flip games where that comes into play. They need to win two of them to make a bowl game, because they should pick up wins over Hampton, UConn, Rutgers and Purdue.
So, they need two of these four:
- Virginia Tech: The Hokies' defensive backs aren't projected in the top 10 of the ACC.
- UCLA: Mid-pack Big Ten defensive backs.
- Illinois: Mid-pack Big Ten defensive backs, which might be the only decent area it has
- Wisconsin: The Badgers have the best projected linebacker coverage group, but one of the worst secondaries in the conference.
There are structural advantages here to pull two of those four coin flips off, clear 5.5 wins and go to a bowl.
But this isn't the kind of disciplined structure you want to invest your money in, because mistakes happen and bad losses follow.
They could start off 4-0 and then finish 5-7 down the stretch. It's not worth the risk.
Pick: Pass
By Stuckey
Last year, this Rutgers defense was one of the most embarrassing things I've ever watched in my life. Over the last six games, the Scarlet Knights gave up 8.5 yards per carry and had only two sacks.
They're bringing in Travis Johansen from South Dakota State to try and fix this unit.
The defense returns just two of its 11 tacklers after the unit finished in the bottom 10 of all FBS teams in Finishing Drives allowed, Quality Drives allowed and rush explosives allowed.
They really need to hit on the transfers they brought in, too. But still, it can't get much worse than last season.
They also had some injuries to deal with, but a lot of the guys they bring back were part of that poor unit. Doug Blue-Eli, who was supposed to start at defensive tackle, is back from injury, so that helps the unit a bit.
Then on offense, Rutgers loses Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback. I think Dylan Lonergan will win the quarterback battle, but there's not many good things to say about this squad.
Pick: Pass
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By Collin Wilson
Alessio Milivojevic was promoted to QB1 and started four games for the Spartans in 2025. He threw 10 touchdowns, and the Spartans are expecting big things out of him. Six of those touchdowns came in the final two games against Iowa and Maryland.
Can that carry over? It can, but they need more help around him. UCF's Cam Fancher and redshirt freshman Leo Hannan will push Milivojevic for the starting job in camp.
Former UConn running back Cam Edwards enters his fifth season with more than 2,600 career rushing yards. The unit returns 3,358 offensive line snaps, good for 85th in the FBS.
Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi is bringing in that base odd hybrid scheme with a standing edge. It’s a diverse zone that utilizes Cover 2, 2-buzz and robber.
However, he only has one of his top eight tacklers returning.
In my opinion, there are going to be some major growing pains trying to learn a defense as complex as his with so many new faces. The defensive line looks super weak, too.
I project the Spartans at 2.9 wins, so I'll go with the under.
Where are the wins coming from? They'll probably beat Toledo and Eastern Michigan. The Rockets are going through their own quarterback situation, and the Eagles aren't a top-tier MAC opponent. Rutgers is a coin-flip, too.
That means you're asking the Spartans to beat Illinois or Northwestern, which I don't see happening.
There just aren't four wins on this schedule.
Pick: Michigan State Under 3.5 Wins (+140)
By Stuckey
This is another reset year for Purdue.
It brought back defensive coordinator Kevin Kane, who previously failed in this same role with the Boilers.
They do bring back quarterback Ryan Browne, and they're in better shape returning production-wise, because 2025-26 was a complete reset.
However, last season was a disaster. The Boilermakers started 2-0 and then lost 10 straight.
But take a deeper look, and they went 0-3-1 in one-possession games and were -12 in turnover margin. They racked up only four interceptions all year, so there are some positive regression signs.
Can they get to four wins? That's the key question. They're probably going to go 0-5 on the road and lose to Notre Dame. Their road games are UCLA, Illinois, Penn State, Iowa and Indiana, plus that game against the Irish.
So, out of their six home games, can they win four of them? The opponents are Wake Forest, Indiana State, Minnesota, Washington, Maryland and Wisconsin, which could be a lame-duck team by the end of the year.
Toss-up.
Pick: Pass
