Looking to spice up your Saturday with a few outside-the-box parlays?
We’ll start in the Big Ten with Penn State feeding a freshman quarterback to Matt Patricia’s Ohio State defense. Then, we'll hop on a plane to Salt Lake City for a pivotal Big 12 showdown between Utah and Cincinnati. Finally, we'll close things out with a high-scoring Mountain West affair in Vegas between UNLV and New Mexico.
Let's take a look at my college football props and NCAAF exotics for Week 10 on Saturday, Nov. 1.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Pick
Ohio State vs. Penn State Parlay
- Ohio State 1Q -4.5
- Penn State Under 117.5 Team Rushing Yards
- Kaytron Allen Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
Payout: +310 (via FanDuel)
Penn State has suited up in the post-James Franklin and post-Drew Allar era just once. The Nittany Lions came up short against Iowa, 25-24, but they had an identity offensively.
They ran the ball 46 times with Kaytron “Fatman” Allen gobbling up 28 of those carries. That was far and away Allen’s career high, with Nick Singleton relegated to nothing more than a change-of-pace back.
During the bye week, Penn State’s staff noted on multiple occasions its desire to get Singleton more involved in the game plan.
Head coach Terry Smith was quoted as saying that they need to feature Singleton’s “home-run hitting capability.” Earlier in the season, there was closer to a 50-50 time share, and I anticipate things returning to that on Saturday.
Then, you need to factor in three elements to this parlay: pace, game flow and Ohio State’s run defense.
No team plays slower than Ohio State (31.5 seconds between plays), so Penn State could end up running a season-low in terms of plays.
The Buckeyes have given up three first-quarter points all season long (1st), a testament to their coaching staff’s preparation. Digging an early hole could force Penn State to throw the ball more with freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer in his second career start.
And the final piece is Ohio State’s dominance in the box. The Buckeyes rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. They recently mauled Minnesota’s running game, holding the Golden Gophers to 68 yards on 25 carries.
Since their opener against Texas, no team has broken the century mark on the ground against Matt Patricia’s defense.
This number is very close to Penn State's rushing output last season against OSU (120 yards), but two things have changed since then.
Tyler Warren is no longer around to chip in Wildcat rushing yards (47 yards vs. OSU), and now they’re starting a freshman quarterback who could bury their rushing props by taking sacks.
The Ohio State front will be licking its chops in this one (three sacks per game, 15th).
Utah vs. Cincinnati Pick
Utah vs. Cincinnati Parlay
- Under 55.5
- Devon Dampier Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
- Brendan Sorsby Under 207.5 Passing Yards
- Brendan Sorsby Under 1.5 Passing TDs
Payout: +421 (via FanDuel)
Utah overs have cashed in three of its past four games. Cincinnati had a four-game over streak cooking earlier this season. All that’s done is inflate this total, which should be closer to 50 than 55.
Let’s start with the Utah pass defense.
The Utes are elite in the skies, ranking second in Passing Success Rate allowed, with veteran defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley pulling the strings.
Cincinnati has found success varying its play-call mix by opponent this season.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has had massive breakout games through the air, like his performances against Kansas (388 yards) and Bowling Green (324 yards).
But when teams have invited the Bearcats to run, they’ve taken them up on it. Cincinnati ran it 50 times last week in a blowout win over Baylor.
As for these props, the passing touchdown under also relies on the Bearcats' red-zone play calling, which can be zone-read heavy.
Sorsby and his top two runners — Evan Pryor and Tawee Walker — have cashed in 14 rushing touchdowns this season, with all but one coming in the red zone. Pryor won't play in this one, but they've been a safe bet to pound the rock in close.
Utah quarterback Devon Dampier rested his swollen ankle last week against Colorado, but re-injuries are high with that kind of ailment. His wheels are his calling card, and the Cincy defense will be prepared after facing multiple mobile quarterbacks this fall.
Kansas' Jalon Daniels and UCF's Cam Fancher both exceeded this rushing total against UC, but they were given ample opportunities to do so.
Dampier has been floating in the 12- to 13-carry range for much of this season, but if his ankle presents any issues, Utah has answers.
Freshman quarterback Byrd Ficklin looked dynamic last week on the ground against Colorado (20/151/1), and running back Wayshawn Parker pitched in his best performance of the season (10/145/1) as well.
Between Utah’s defense and Dampier’s ankle, it’s an under parade for me in this game, cashing out north of 4-1.
UNLV vs. New Mexico Pick
UNLV vs. New Mexico Parlay
- UNLV -4.5
- Alt. Over 70.5
- UNLV 500+ Yards
Payout: +611 (via FanDuel)
Let’s end this week with a simple bet that we can all get behind.
The Rebels are one of the most entertaining “half teams” in the sport. Dan Mullen’s offense ranks 33rd in Quality Drives and 17th in big-play creation.
With quarterback Anthony Colandrea at the helm, the Rebs have scored 38 or more on four occasions. Against Air Force, they generated 597 total yards of offense. They even flirted with the 500-yard mark against Boise State on the road.
New Mexico has been a fun Year 1 story, with head coach Jason Eck performing a minor miracle in the Land of Enchantment. One more win, and the Lobos are going bowling.
But a quick examination of their schedule reveals that they've made the most of a soft slate. When they have drawn dynamic MWC offenses like San Jose State and Boise, they’ve given up an average of 38 points and 440 total yards.
On the fast track at Allegiant Stadium, UNLV will have a chance to break 500, and if it does, that will mean a more uptempo game than New Mexico is used to this season.
In just the past six weeks, UNLV has played in three games with scores in excess of 78 points.
Usually, correlated parlays like this don’t offer much in terms of a payout. But this one jumping beyond 6-1 caught my eye.
If UNLV opens things up and hits its yardage goal, we have a real shot at hitting the other two legs thanks to its matador defense that ranks 133rd in big plays allowed.
