It's not much of a secret that weather can affect the outcome of a football game. And as such, it shouldn't come as a surprise that oddsmakers often shift lines on account of game conditions.
But what may not be as well known is just how much weather — and in particular, wind — matters. Thankfully we have a database that can tell us exactly that.
Since 2005, college football games played in winds of 13+ mph have hit the under at a 57% on a sample of more than 1,000 games (551-422-34).
And considering that's a win rate that would make just about any professional bettor happy, you might now be curious as to which of Saturday's games fit the bill. So, let's take a look.
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Forecasted winds: 12 to 16 mph
- Opening total: 57
- Current total: 54.5 [Bet now in WV!]
An otherwise beautiful day in Lubbock will be met with winds blowing almost from sideline to sideline, meaning kicking field goals in either direction will be a challenge this evening.
Only 39% of bettors have taken the under — which isn't unusual, especially for a Big 12 game — but the forecast has still been enough for oddsmakers to drop this total by almost a field goal.
Utah State vs. Boise State
7 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
- Forecasted winds: 16 to 18 mph
- Opening total: 57.5
- Current total: 52.5 [Bet Now]
Taking the crown as Saturday's windiest college football host city: Boise, Idaho.
And with this game's average wind speed of 17.7 mph, it's worth noting that games reaching the 17-mph threshold have seen a slightly bigger edge in our database, going 170-118-9 (59%) to the under since 2005.
The same percentage of bettors (39%) have taken this under as of writing, but once again, oddsmakers have still dropped the total as a result of the weather, this time going all the way from 57.5 to 52.5.
