The college football regular season is wrapping up, and with that comes increased talk of who is going to win the sport's most prestigious award: the Heisman Trophy.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for the most likely Heisman winners, with two Big Ten quarterbacks atop the table.
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Heisman Trophy Winner Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
The 2025 Heisman Trophy Favorites
Fernando Mendoza
Per Kalshi, the favorite to take home the award this year is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The Cal transfer has led the Hoosiers' offense to a spotless 11-0 record, while taking down ranked conference foes in Illinois and Oregon.
Mendoza leads all Division I quarterbacks with 30 passing touchdowns and 10.85 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, good for a career-high 184.8 passer rating. He's not a true dual-threat quarterback, but he averages just under six rushing attempts per game and has racked up a total of 216 yards on the ground.
Mendoza's Heisman case is simple: he has been arguably the best player at the most valuable position in the sport, for what has arguably been the sport's best team. His final regular-season matchup will come after Thanksgiving against the abysmal Purdue Boilermakers, giving him one last chance to gain another leg up on his competition.
Julian Sayin
Trailing Mendoza by around 10 percentage points in Kalshi's odds is rival Big Ten quarterback Julian Sayin of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Like his Hoosier counterpart, Sayin leads college football in a couple of categories: his 186.2 passer rating is the nation's best, as well as his 80.1% completion percentage. The sophomore also leads the Big Ten in total completions with 220.
Like Indiana, Sayin's Buckeyes are also undefeated, albeit in one less game. They have the same amount of ranked wins, with Sayin beating Texas and Illinois, though Ohio State ranked atop the first CFP rankings, one spot ahead of the Hoosiers. Sayin has two weeks left to make his case, against unranked Rutgers this coming week, and rival Michigan on the final day of the regular season.
The college football world seems to have Ohio State as the top team in the land right now, but would they say the same about its quarterback? There certainly is an argument to be made.
Marcel Reed
The final player with double-digit percent odds to win the Heisman is yet another quarterback — Marcel Reed. His Texas A&M Aggies sit just behind Ohio State and Indiana at No. 3 in the CFP Poll, while sitting atop the SEC standings at 10-0.
Reed has his own impressive resume, leading the stacked SEC in touchdown passes with 22, as well as in yards per completion with 14.7. Aside from being a deep-ball threat, Reed is the best mobile quarterback out of the three, picking up 391 yards and six touchdowns with his legs through 10 games.
The redshirt sophomore will have a chance to warm up for his final matchup against Texas on November 28th with a non-conference game against Samford this coming weekend. If SEC bias is to be believed, then Reed may have a shot to keep his hat in the Heisman ring with the titans of the Big Ten.
