The Toledo Rockets take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, Michigan, on Saturday, Sept. 4. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FS1.
Michigan State is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -375. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 4.
Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction
- Toledo vs. Michigan State Pick: Michigan State -9.5 (Play to -13.5)
My Michigan State vs. Toledo best bet is on Michigan State to cover the home spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Toledo vs Michigan State Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +295 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -375 |
- Toledo vs Michigan State point spread: Toledo +9.5 (-112), Michigan State -9.5 (-108)
- Toledo vs Michigan State over/under: 47.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Toledo vs Michigan State moneyline: Toledo +295, Michigan State -375
Toledo vs Michigan State Preview
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
Nobody in the country did less with more than Jason Candle during his 10 seasons at Toledo.
Despite consistently fielding what was by far the most talented roster and being the preseason MAC favorite far more times than not, Candle came away with two MAC championships and the most outright losses as a double-digit favorite in the country (10!).
In his last two seasons at Toledo, Candle went 16-10 with no MAC title appearances. For every upset of Pittsburgh and Mississippi State, he countered with a season-ending loss to 3-8 Akron.
In comes Mercer's Mike Jacobs, an extremely accomplished head coach who touts a .803 career win rate. He has never posted a losing season.
Jacobs decided to bring most of his Mercer staff, including defensive coordinator Jahmal Brown, who has worked with Jacobs for eight seasons.
Incoming players like Andrew Zock — the Southern Conference's Defensive Player of the Year with 11.5 sacks last year — know the system well, and it should be a quick integration.
The issue here is that Jacobs imported almost his entire 2025 Mercer team with very little to bolster it. That Mercer team won nine games, but suffered a 47-0 loss to South Dakota in the playoffs, a 16-15 loss to Presbyterian and barely scraped by 6-6 Wofford.
It's a roster far less talented than recent Toledo teams, especially when it comes to defensive backs (which Toledo has recently become an NFL factory for) and receivers.
Someone who didn't follow Jacobs was star QB Braden Atkinson, who's starting for Oregon State.
This season, expect Toledo to win plenty of games. Expect the Rockets to cleanse themselves of the loss to 4-8 Bowling Green. But expect that to take some time as this roster adjusts to life in the FBS, especially Week 1 at Michigan State.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
It took less than two seasons to realize Jonathan Smith wasn't the answer at Michigan State.
The 2026 season ushers in the Pat Fitzgerald era — a perplexing move that turns the culture of the team squarely on its head. Fitzgerald retained defensive coordinator Joe Rossi and hired Nick Sheridan as offensive coordinator.
Fitzgerald's end at Northwestern was controversial, to say the least. But the controversy surrounding his departure and the outcry following it actually did well to mask how bad he was in the NIL era.
In his last two years (2021, 2022), Fitz went a combined 4-20 with a loss to FCS Southern Illinois. He's been out of the coaching game since then, and despite reports that he's "studying the modern game," I'm not convinced he's the answer.
Depth questions are significant, especially on the offensive line. A couple starters are of good quality, namely FCS All-American center Trent Fraley (North Dakota State) and a 12-game returning starter, guard Conner Moore. But behind the starting five, there isn't much.
UConn leading rusher Cam Edwards gives the backfield some pop. The rest of the skill players around QB Alessio Milivojevic are complete unknowns. Sheridan is part of the Kalen DeBoer coaching tree, but it sounds like State will look to run heavier 12- and 13-personnel sets this year.
Rossi fell flat last year, leading Michigan State to the No. 97 defense in points per drive. His retention is interesting, though the Spartans add a swath of power-conference transfers, plus two notable smaller-program additions: safety Devin Vaught (Maine) and nickel Michael Richard (Louisiana Tech).
At least on paper, this defense should improve.
Toledo vs Michigan State Pick, Betting Analysis
Movement this offseason has been largely one-sided in favor of Toledo. It opened favoring Michigan State -10.5 and now sits at -9.5, and the total fell from 48.5 to 46.5.
Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as several rounds of storms are expected in East Lansing from Wednesday through Saturday, including Friday night. Spartan Stadium still features a natural Kentucky Bluegrass surface, meaning the effects of rain are amplified there.
It's easy to look back and decide that Toledo with the points is the right side, given that the Rockets haven't lost to a power-conference foe by more than one score since 2022 (lost to Ohio State 77-21) despite having played five power foes — they even won two of those games (both in 2024).
Additionally, Michigan State hasn't run away against their non-power opponents. But this isn't your Candle Toledo team, and there's an entirely new administration at Michigan State.
Jacobs' inaugural Toledo team is comprised of talented transfers, many of whom played for him at Mercer. While there, that group lost to Presbyterian, barely beat a 6-6 Wofford team and then its star quarterback left for Oregon State, not Toledo.
A similar roster was blanked, 47-0, by South Dakota and blown out 62-17 by a 5-7 Auburn team without a coach.
This year's roster is likely more competitive in the trenches, but by how much? Multiple scores?
This is a game Michigan State likely controls with a physical approach on both sides. A two-touchdown game is far from a blowout, and that's all it'll take the Spartans to cover at home.
Pick: Michigan State -9.5 (Play to -13.5)
