The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
USC is favored by -21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2500. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Fresno State vs. USC prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 4, 2026.
Fresno State vs USC Prediction
- Fresno State vs. USC Pick: USC Over 36.5 Points (Play to 39.5)
My USC vs. Fresno State best bet is on the Trojans to go over their point total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Fresno State vs USC Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
- Fresno State vs USC point spread: Fresno State +21.5 (-110), USC -21.5 (-110)
- Fresno State vs USC over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Fresno State vs USC moneyline: Fresno State +1100, USC -2500
Fresno State vs USC College Football Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs
Year 1 under Matt Entz was a roaring success. Fresno State went 9-4 thanks to a stout defense and an offense that did just enough.
However, its performances varied wildly, including a 49-21 loss to three-win Colorado State, a 23-0 loss to San Diego State and a 30-7 throttling of Mountain West champion Boise State. When it was good, it was good, and when it was bad, it was bad.
Entz returns 13 starters, but Fresno's starting quarterback and five of its top six defenders need to be replaced.
Maryland transfer Khristian Martin landed the starting QB job and presents himself as an interesting prospect. The sophomore stands 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, and showed some brief moments of brilliant playmaking at Maryland.
But he's extremely green, with just 105 passing yards last year.
Alongside him in the backfield are Fresno's top three returning rushers: Rayshon Luke, Bryson Donelson and short-yardage hammer Brandon Ramirez. Luke and Donaldson are threats out of the backfield.
The biggest loss this offseason was that of both starting corners, who were outstanding for the Bulldogs last year. DC Nick Benedetto improved this unit tenfold in just one season and now gets a second-year bump with six returning starters.
Benedetto stuck with players on the roster to replace the lost perimeter production, calling on sophomores Kiontre Harris and Loyall Mouzon. Those two are off to a tough first test against USC.
The concern for this defense early on is the loss of two all-league corners and the absence of a real, proven alpha pass rusher.
Fresno is absolutely a force in the Pac-12 and a contender for the conference title, but in Week 1, the defensive shortcomings might be too much.
USC Trojans
"Boy, I can't believe USC gave up 26 to San Jose State! Same old Lincoln Riley."
Posts along those lines littered my Saturday evening timeline in Week 0 following USC's 42-26 win. But is that justified?
A closer look reveals USC dominated the game. The Trojans held a 25% edge in Success Rate and kept SJSU to just three points until the fourth quarter, when the Trojans led 35-3. At that point, the true freshmen's backup's backup was on the field.
Four of the Spartans' first five drives went three-and-out. It was a defensive drubbing in the first game under DC Gary Patterson.
Neither Terrell Anderson nor Tanook Hines played, nor did starting defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart; projected starting center Kilian O'Connor was lost for the season early in August.
Without them, QB Jayden Maiava did what he needed to, completing 25-of-30 passes with an average depth of target of just 6.9 yards and one big-time throw (per PFF). The offense featured several ball carriers, and 11 different players saw targets.
His offense scored a touchdown on six of eight full drives, and a seventh drive ended at the SJSU four-yard line.
All wrapped up, Riley treated this game like a scrimmage and waltzed to victory.
Like last year, injuries might catch up to USC. But for the first few weeks against punching bags, Riley doesn't usually miss his mark. With Oregon around the corner to close out September, USC probably won't show much over the next four games.
But if he can pile the points up, he will.
Hines was a late scratch who might return this week. Keep an eye on Anderson and Stewart, as chances are, this coaching staff will be cautious with key players this week against Fresno State and next against Louisiana.
Fresno State vs USC Pick, Betting Analysis
Out goes the heat dome and, hopefully, in come a few more USC fans. Since opening at 49.5, this point total has taken movement to the over, now at 51.5. Fresno State also took a nudge of movement from its opening mark at +23.5.
Last week, USC ran with a plodding tempo, averaging 28.7 seconds per play (which would have ranked 119th in the country last year). Under OC Josh Davis — which is Entz's system — Fresno averaged 28.8 seconds per play and 30.3 seconds per play in its final three games.
The goal is apparent: eat clock and control the ground. That's a strategy that works against Oregon State and Rice. But against a team with such a significant talent advantage, it results in three-and-outs.
USC's drive chart was extremely efficient last week — far more than what the final score suggests. Should that drive not have died at the four-year line, USC takes a 42-3 lead into the fourth quarter.
Of course, San Jose State is a weaker opponent by nearly two scores, according to post-Week 0 consensus power ratings.
Against a green pair of corners, even without Hines and/or Anderson (the former probably returns), Riley's offense should move the ball with ease. USC doesn't need to run a quick pace and neither does Fresno with this kind of drive efficiency.
But to avoid the late-game 23-point flash, I'm looking at USC's team total, which sits a bit too low.
Under Riley (since 2022), USC averages 56.9 points per game against non-power foes, the low-water mark being last week's 42-point outing that should have been 49. Fresno is a step up in defensive class, but not enough to actually slow this offense down.
Riley is a coach who will continue to score if given half a chance, especially against an inferior opponent where style points might matter in a crowded CFP fringe race (and games against the top three Big Ten teams on tap).
Pick: USC Over 36.5 Points (Play to 39.5)
