The Illinois State Redbirds take on the UC Davis Aggies in the FCS Playoffs quarterfinals on Saturday, Dec. 13. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UC Davis is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Illinois State, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my Illinois State vs UC Davis prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 13.
Illinois State vs UC Davis Prediction
- Illinois State vs UC Davis Pick: Illinois State +2.5
My UC Davis vs. Illinois State best bet is on the Redbirds to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Illinois State vs UC Davis Odds
| Redbirds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Aggies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
- Illinois State vs UC Davis Spread: Illinois State +2.5, UC Davis -2.5
- Illinois State vs UC Davis Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- Illinois State vs UC Davis Moneyline: Illinois State +110, UC Davis -130
Illinois State vs UC Davis FCS Playoffs Preview
Illinois State Redbirds Betting Preview: Fresh Off Historic Performance
Illinois State pulled off the most remarkable upset in recent history and one of the largest ever in FCS Playoff competition last week, going to Fargo and knocking off North Dakota State as a 25-point underdog.
The performance was an all-time great showing for Illinois State, but the result was stunning given how this game started.
NDSU went up, 14-0, before you could bat an eye, but the Redbirds rallied the troops defensively and contained NDSU’s potent offense for the majority of the contest.
Quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse completed 35-of-52 passes with three touchdowns, as the Redbirds outgained the Bison, 422-179, while running 91 offensive plays.
The new test for Illinois State will be regrouping for another road game across the country with higher stakes. This should be a fun game on Saturday evening.
Illinois State didn’t do much to wow NDSU offensively, and the Redbirds struggled on third down, converting just 6-of-18 attempts.
Rittenhouse threw five interceptions, which consistently put the defense in bad spots.
The Redbirds will still run the ball effectively here, and I expect Victor Dawson and Wenkers Wright — who should return from injury this week — to carry the load.
Rittenhouse is an experienced quarterback, and he should shake off the five-interception performance from last week. The Redbirds' passing offense should operate a little more smoothly against this UC Davis defense.
The defense for Illinois State was incredible against NDSU all afternoon after giving up a 78-yard touchdown pass on its first play from scrimmage.
NDSU had just 103 total yards and six first downs the rest of the way, as Illinois State dominated and overwhelmed the Bison in the trenches throughout.
This is something we haven’t seen an opponent do to the Bison in 15 years. It was one of the more impressive defensive performances I've seen in recent memory, given the circumstances.
The front seven was stout against the run and created pressure against NDSU quarterback Cole Payton. I expect another strong performance for this unit here.
UC Davis Aggies Betting Preview: Offense to Test Redbirds
UC Davis rattled off some nice wins early in the season against weaker nonconference FCS opponents and a front-loaded schedule filled with the bottom half of Big Sky opponents, but I'm struggling to identify this team's best win.
The Aggies struggled against Sacramento State in the season finale and also saw closer-than-expected battles with Cal Poly, Utah Tech and Northern Colorado, among others.
The UC Davis defense has been hit hard by injuries all season, with 15 players on the two-deep roster going down, missing significant time or being out for the season.
The Aggies' stop unit allows 29 points per game and struggles to generate pressure and create negative plays consistently.
This defense is really going to have to play its best football of the season to advance in the playoffs, as it faces a big, physical Illinois State team that will be ready to go.
The offense has been solid this season, led by quarterback Caden Pinnick, who has shown poise well beyond his freshman status. Pinnick has completed 69% of his passes for 2,804 yards and 29 touchdowns this season.
The Aggies have explosive receivers both in the slot and out wide, and running back Jordan Fisher has run for 1,051 yards and seven touchdowns this year.
This group will provide a test for Illinois State, and it needs to play crisp, sharp football for the Aggies to advance.
Illinois State vs UC Davis Pick, Betting Analysis
This line has remained steady, with UCD coming in as a 2.5-point favorite and the total hovering around 58.5. I'm going to back the 'dog in this one.
Illinois State has been playing lights-out defensively over the last six weeks of this season.
The stop unit has undergone a complete turnaround since suffering a midseason loss to Youngstown State in October. It has held five of its last seven opponents to 21 points or less, and the attitude and intensity along the defensive line has ramped up significantly.
The Redbirds completely controlled the line of scrimmage against North Dakota State and out-muscled the Bison at the point of attack.
NDSU couldn't run the ball, and the passing offense generated only one explosive play on the first play of the game.
This Redbird defensive front is going to create Havoc and pressure on Pinnick, which is something he's not accustomed to.
UC Davis' offensive line has had pass protection issues all season, surrendering 33 sacks. I don't see this offensive line holding up against stronger defensive tackles and quicker defensive ends who are going to be hungry once again this week.
The talent disparity in the trenches will take over when Illinois State is on defense.
I believe the Redbirds will sustain possession and execute on third downs and in the red zone. This team should be able to run the ball, and I expect the offensive line to force the issue against a weaker UC Davis front that doesn't excel at generating Havoc.
I believe Illinois State will avoid the hangover from last week's monumental upset over North Dakota State and show up focused and ready to go.
The Redbirds are the better team and should dominate in the trenches, where the game is often won. I'll take +2.5 here in the event we get a two-point conversion attempt as we saw last week.
Pick: Illinois State +2.5
