If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa. This Big Ten matchup is a trial by fire for the Buckeyes, who want to build on their momentum and secure their fourth win of the season. Traders price them as heavy-favorites, with 86% chances of winning.
The home team enters as the underdog sitting at just 16% implied odds, but head coach Kirk Ferentz will look to execute his defensive game plan to keep his squad alive late into the fourth quarter.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction
- Ohio State vs. Iowa Pick: Ohio by Over 16.5 – Over 45.5 points scored
Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Iowa Odds
- Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction: Ohio State (83%), Iowa (17%)
- Ohio State vs Iowa over/under: 45.5
Ohio State vs Iowa College Football Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Preview:
Ohio State enters this Big Ten matchup standing at 3-1 on the season. The Buckeyes bounced back from a narrow 24-23 loss at No. 1 Texas in mid-September by stringing together two dominant home performances: a 59-3 blowout against Kent State and a convincing 42-19 Big Ten opening victory over Illinois.
Across these games, quarterback Julian Sayin and breakout star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith have fueled a high-powered passing attack, highlighted by Smith’s explosive four-touchdown performance against Illinois. T
Their upcoming Week 5 game against Iowa at Kinnick Stadium presents a critical test of composure and tactical execution. Ryan Day’s team will look to set a physical tone early, relying on disciplined line play to establish the run game while opening up explosive opportunities through the air.
While the Buckeyes' defense has been dominant, limiting opponents to 12.3 points per contest, they must remain relentless against an Iowa running attack that averages over 215 yards on the ground.
Ohio knows that to exit Iowa City with a crucial Big Ten victory, they must dictate field position, limit unforced turnovers and wear down the Hawkeyes in the second half. Of course that’s easier said than done.
Iowa Hawkeyes Preview:
The Iowa Hawkeyes will aim to turn their clash against Ohio State into a physical, low-scoring defensive battle. Following a demanding start to their Big Ten schedule, Kirk Ferentz's squad relies on its traditional formula: a pounding ground game, time of possession control, and an elite defensive unit that surrenders very few points.
The team's health comes at an ideal time, as key figures who had been dealing with nagging injuries, such as starting running back Kamari Moulton and tight end DJ Vonnahme, returned to availability just in time for this crucial stretch of the schedule.
Iowa's primary plan relies on neutralizing the Buckeyes' explosive passing attack through disciplined coverage and pressuring the quarterback, forcing Ohio State into a trench battle.
Although they enter the game as underdogs, Iowa relies on its hostile home environment and grueling pace of play to stall the opposing offense and keep the score within reach until the fourth quarter.
The question is whether this game plan will be enough to counter the visiting team’s structural superiority, and if Iowa has enough stamina left to stay alive in the final stretch of the game.
Ohio State vs Iowa Pick, Analysis
This time around, I don't think Iowa will be able to counter Ohio State's offensive firepower, making it unlikely they'll reach the closing minutes with a realistic chance to win.
Pick: Ohio St. wins by Over 16.5, Over 45.5 points scored.
| Location: | Kinnick Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 3 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS – Paramount+ |
