The North Texas Mean Green take on the Texas State Bobcats in San Marcos, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on USA.
Texas State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -144. The total is set at 62.5 points.
Here’s my North Texas vs. Texas State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
- North Texas vs. Texas State Pick: Texas State -3 or Better
My Texas St vs. North Texas best bet is on the Bobcats. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
North Texas vs Texas State Odds
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -144 |
- North Texas vs Texas State point spread: Texas St -2.5 (-120), North Texas +3 (-102)
- North Texas vs Texas State over/under: 62.5 (-110o / -110u)
- North Texas vs Texas State moneyline: North Texas +120, Texas St -144
North Texas vs Texas State College Football Preview
The bounces are eventually going to go Texas State's way. Last season, the Bobs went 1-4 in one-possession games with a pair of overtime losses. And so far this season, the good fortune hasn't come their way.
In the opener against Texas, they found themselves down 28-0 despite gaining more yards than the Longhorns. Going 1-for-3 on fourth down with three turnovers certainly didn't help matters, but the offense moved the ball easily in the first half against the current No. 1 team in America.
Then, last week against UTSA, they lost in the final seconds in a contest it out-gained the Roadrunners, 481-398.
Once again, the bounces didn't go their way when they really probably just needed one. The Bobs had a -3 turnover margin and went 0-for-1 on fourth down, while UTSA converted 5-of-6.
There have probably been a lot of sleepless nights in G.J. Kinne's household over the past two seasons, but you'd have to imagine the boys from San Marcos are overdue for some positive variance, which could start this week against a North Texas team we can sell high on following a 38-point clubbing of UNLV.
I've been very impressed with what Neal Brown has done with a brand-new roster after most of last year's staff and key players darted for Stillwater. The Mean Green even out-gained Indiana in the opener.
As a result, I have upgraded them by nearly a touchdown, even if part of last week's result had to do with a horrific spot for UNLV, which simply never got off the bus in one of the sloppiest first halves of football you'll see all season.
For this particular matchup, I trust Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson to carve up a North Texas secondary that has lost three pieces to injury since the start of camp.
It's worth noting that stud Texas State wideout Beau Sparks and fellow starting receiver Zechariah Sample are listed as questionable after both missed last week's game, which makes that result even more impressive, in my opinion.
I'm hearing both have a decent shot of suiting up, which would provide a very welcome boost to an electric passing attack that came into the year with the only pair of returning 1,000-yard receivers in the country with Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr.
North Texas vs Texas State Pick, Betting Analysis
Ultimately, I like the spot and matchup in a game I project over a field goal, so I happily bet the -2.5 here even with the lingering injury questions at wide receiver for the Bobs.
I mean, Texas State laid an almost identical number last week at home vs. UTSA. I know North Texas is better than expected, but I'm not ready to power-rate it at the same level as the Roadrunners.
The Bobcat special teams are a disaster, but the Mean Green have glaring issues in that department as well, making that a bit of a wash.
I'm sure North Texas running back Jahiem White will pose problems for the Bobcat defense, but give me the better quarterback and team at home at less than a field goal in a battle between programs that have played two of the most difficult schedules in the country to date.
Pick: Texas State -3 or Better
