College Football Odds & Picks for UNLV vs Fresno State: Target This Total

College Football Odds & Picks for UNLV vs Fresno State: Target This Total article feature image

Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Fresno State’s Jaelen Gill.

  • Week 9 of the college football season features a UNLV vs Fresno State Mountain West battle.
  • The Rebels enter as -9.5 favorites in this Saturday night showdown, while the over/under sits at 56.5.
  • Check out our full UNLV vs Fresno State betting preview, including odds, picks and predictions.

UNLV vs Fresno State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 28
10:30 p.m. ET
-110o / -110u
Fresno State Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Week 9 wraps up with a late-night Mountain West showdown, as the Fresno State Bulldogs host the UNLV Rebels. Fresno State has owned this series and won the past five matchups, but this is not your older brother's UNLV team.

The Rebels have leaned on their high-powered offense to start the season 6-1. They're scoring 35.7 points per game and are unbeaten in conference play.

The 6-1 Bulldogs won't be scared of their Las Vegas opponents, but this appears to be a much more entertaining matchup than many expected. Fresno State enters as a -9.5 favorite, as the over/under comes in at 56.5.

It's time to dive into the odds and make a UNLV vs. Fresno State prediction.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

UNLV Rebels

UNLV has looked the part of its 6-1 record. Four of those wins have been by double-digit margins, and its only loss was on the road against No. 2 Michigan in Week 2.

UNLV's offense ranks 12th in Quality Drives and 43rd in Pass Success Rate, as the offense has really found its groove with Jayden Maiava under center.

Maiava has started since Week 3 and has completed 64.9% of his throws for 1,313 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions.

Ricky White leads the receivers with 39 catches for 559 yards and two scores, but the rest of the scoring mostly comes from the running game. Of UNLV's 27 offensive touchdowns, 22 have been on the ground, and running backs Donavyn Lester and Jai'Den Thomas each have seven rushing touchdowns.

Even though the Rebels are 86th in Rushing Success Rate, they do a good job of punching it in when they get the opportunity.

After years of having dreadful defense, the Rebels are now OK on that front. They're giving up 26.3 points per game and rank a respectable 59th in Rush Success Allowed.

The only teams to score more than 30 points against them were the two Power 5 teams they've played, Michigan and Vanderbilt. However, UNLV's pass defense is a different story — it ranks 121st in Pass Success Allowed.

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Fresno State Bulldogs

The big question for Fresno State is the status of starting quarterback Mikey Keene. He injured his ankle three weeks ago against Wyoming and is questionable to play against the Rebels.

Keene has been great this season with 1,692 passing yards, 15 touchdown passes and four interceptions.

He's tough to replace, but backup Logan Fife has done enough to be trusted to step in and run the offense. Fife had a touchdown pass in relief of Keene against Wyoming, then threw for 291 yards and a touchdown in a 37-32 win over Utah State two weeks ago.

It helps that the Bulldogs have three high-level wide receivers in Erik Brooks, Jalen Moss and Jaelen Gill, all of whom have at least 370 yards and four receiving touchdowns.

The run game has been much less effective, as Fresno State ranks 122nd in Rush Success Rate despite Malik Sherrod rushing for at least 120 yards in two of his past three games.

Fresno State's defense has been impressive. It has limited teams to 10 or fewer points in three games and ranks 32nd or better in most of the relevant defensive metrics.

The Bulldogs' only weakness is their pass defense, which is 61st in Pass Success Allowed. Although, they've slightly made up for that with 10 interceptions.

UNLV vs Fresno State

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Fresno State match up statistically:

UNLV Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Rush Success8632
Line Yards7526
Pass Success4361
Finishing Drives4724
Quality Drives1219
Fresno State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
Rush Success12259
Line Yards10139
Pass Success34121
Finishing Drives2478
Quality Drives3270
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling33122
PFF Coverage11557
Special Teams SP+3256
Middle 86288
Seconds per Play25.2 (35)26.5 (62)
Rush Rate60.5% (19)43.7% (122)

UNLV vs Fresno State

Betting Pick & Prediction

Fresno State is favored by 7.5 points, but I just can't take that with Keene's status still up in the air. However, I really like going over 57.5 points.

Both offenses should be able to throw the ball. Neither team has a good pass defense and both teams have shown that they can score. Even if Keene doesn't play, I still trust the Bulldogs' offense to be effective.

Fresno State is averaging 34 points per game, while UNLV is scoring just below 36 per game. Expect more of the same in this contest and bet the over all the way up to 58.

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