According to a recent investor note by Barry Jonas, an analyst with Truist Securities, the future of Las Vegas tourism is on shaky ground.
Jonas described the city's market outlook as "challenged," highlighting ongoing "leisure challenges" that could continue to impact the famous Las Vegas Strip.
While some segments of the U.S. casino industry are thriving, Las Vegas itself is not guaranteed a quick return to its former glory.
The news comes on the heels of a report that predicted a big rebound in 2026. But as 2025 ended, troubling figures from the Harry Reid International Airport did not provide much optimism.
Understanding the Las Vegas Tourism Decline
The once-thriving Las Vegas Strip has hit a rough patch. Analysts like Barry Jonas have expressed concerns about a less optimistic future for Las Vegas tourism.
According to Jonas, Las Vegas is "structurally challenged," particularly on the leisure side of the market.
This issue emerged after the major events and "revenge-travel" peaks of 2023-2024 faded. In 2025, visitation softened, leading to decreased room rates and occupancy in some Strip hotels. At one point, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) only forecasted a modest dip in visitor totals.
One of the key reasons for this decline is price fatigue among tourists.
Visitors are wary of the high costs often associated with a Vegas trip, especially when more affordable gambling options are closer to home. Additionally, international demand has softened. There are fewer transformative events in 2025 to attract the global audience that Las Vegas relies on.
Regional Casinos Outperforming Las Vegas
As Las Vegas grapples with these challenges, regional casinos are experiencing a contrasting scenario.
Many tourists are opting to gamble closer to home, which benefits local casinos and regional markets. According to Jonas, regional casinos in places like Pennsylvania and Colorado are thriving because of their stable, drive-to visitation. These establishments are outpacing the well-known Las Vegas Strip in performance.
The "trade-down" trend, where tourists choose nearby casinos over flying to Las Vegas, supports a steady flow of customers to regional locations. These casinos are seeing continued success, even as Las Vegas struggles, suggesting a shift in gambling preferences amongst consumers.
Future Prospects and Opportunities
While the present outlook for Las Vegas tourism seems uncertain, it's not entirely bleak.
Analysts have highlighted the potential for growth in specific segments, such as business conventions and group events. The return of major conventions in 2026, including the long-awaited Con/Agg conference, could provide the Strip with a much-needed boost.
Analysts felt the same way about the Las Vegas Grand Prix, the long Thanksgiving Day weekend, and New Year's Eve celebrations.
Though leisure travel is challenged, strengthening the city's value proposition could help Las Vegas regain some lost ground. Offering more affordable options and highlighting unique, cost-effective experiences might attract tourists looking for value.
A Mixed Outlook for Las Vegas Tourism
The current landscape presents a mixed outlook for Las Vegas tourism.
While regional casinos are riding a wave of success, Las Vegas is dealing with significant challenges in its leisure market. However, the city could see a return to growth with the right strategies and a focus on diversifying its offerings. By adapting to changing consumer preferences, Las Vegas can remain an iconic travel destination despite current hurdles.
The road to recovery might be long, but with perseverance and smart planning, Las Vegas could still be the shining star of the American tourism industry.
