Caleb Williams is still sidelined, but the Bears are road favorites at Lambeau Field for just the third time in 30 seasons, and this Bears vs. Packers prediction rounds up our best picks straight from the live Kalshi board.
- Chicago arrives 3-1 with a league-leading rushing attack, while Green Bay is 2-2 and has the NFL's worst rushing numbers through four weeks.
- Tyson Bagent starts again under center for the Bears, while Jordan Love and the Packers lean on an opportunistic defense to try to flip the script at home.
Here is our full picks table before we break down every editor's pick, the game lines, and every player prop board tonight.
| 🏈 NFL Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears Moneyline | Yes | 59¢ | $69.49 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Bears -2.5 | Yes | 54¢ | $85.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Game Total Under 45.5 | Yes | 51¢ | $96.08 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jordan Love 250+ Passing Yards | Yes | 32¢ | $198.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Bears vs. Packers Prediction: Our Top Kalshi Picks
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make after redeeming the Kalshi promo code (ACTION55), part of our best picks for this NFC North Week 5 matchup.
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Bears vs. Packers Prediction
Chicago has won three of its last four meetings with Green Bay, and the Bears bring the league's leading rushing attack into Lambeau, with Kyle Monangai emerging as the clear No. 1 back after a 146-yard outing last week. Caleb Williams remains out, so Tyson Bagent gets another start, but Ben Johnson's offense ran 89 plays to the Jets' 32 last week and hasn't needed Williams to control the clock.
Green Bay is 2-2 and has the worst rushing attack in the NFL through four weeks, which puts more pressure on Jordan Love to carry the offense through the air against a Bears defense that's tightened up since a rough Week 1.
Best Moneyline Pick Today – Bears Moneyline
| 🏈 NFL Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears Moneyline | Yes | 59¢ | $69.49 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
This is the trade we like most on the board. Chicago has gained ground on Kalshi over the past week, climbing to 59% to win outright, and a Packers rushing attack averaging under 60 yards a game gives Green Bay little margin for error if Love has an off day on the road… well, at home, against a Bears pass defense that ranks second in the league on third down.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at a 59¢ average price is roughly 169 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If the Bears win: this ticket nets a profit of $69.49.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Kalshi contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Best Passing Yards Prop Today – Jordan Love 250+ Yards
| 🏈 NFL Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love 250+ Passing Yards | Yes | 32¢ | $198.28 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
With Green Bay's ground game struggling, Love is carrying more of the offensive load than Green Bay probably wants, and he's coming off a 268-yard outing in Tampa Bay last week. Expect a similar workload against a Bears defense that will need to account for Chicago's own offensive limitations with Bagent at QB.
- If Love clears 250 passing yards: profit of $198.28.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Spread and Total for Bears vs. Packers
Bears vs. Packers Spread
Chicago is a 2.5-point favorite tonight, priced at 54% Yes to cover, just the third time in 30 seasons the Bears have been favored at Lambeau Field.
Bears vs. Packers Total
The total sits at 45.5 points, priced at 51% Yes on the under, reflecting two defenses that have each tightened up after rocky starts to the season.
What's Moving the Bears vs. Packers Market
Prediction markets and prices move for a lot of reasons, and this one has shifted hard toward Chicago over the past week, with the Bears gaining 14 points on Kalshi to reach 59%. That move lines up with Chicago's rushing numbers and a defense that's allowed just 28 points combined since a 37-point Week 1 letdown, while Green Bay's inability to run the ball is the biggest factor keeping the Packers as home underdogs.
Use Kalshi Promo Code 'ACTION55' to Trade Bears vs. Packers
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements before Sunday's 1:00 PM ET kickoff.
- When you're ready, sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to trade $25 and get a $55 bonus!
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Bears vs. Packers Prediction: Final Thoughts
The Bears being favored at Lambeau Field is rare enough on its own, and Chicago's rushing attack plus a suddenly stout defense are the reasons the market has moved toward them even with Caleb Williams sidelined. For more on how these markets work, Action Network's Kalshi promo code page and the full NFL odds hub cover everything else on this week's board.
Kalshi Promo Code FAQs
What is the Kalshi promo code for Bears vs. Packers?
The current Kalshi promo code is ACTION55. New users who sign up with it can trade $25 and get a $55 bonus to use on this Week 5 NFC North matchup.
Who is favored in Bears vs. Packers?
The Bears are favored, priced at 59% to win outright on Kalshi, with a 2.5-point spread in Chicago's favor.
What is the best pick for Bears vs. Packers?
Our top play is the Bears moneyline, given Chicago's league-leading rushing attack and a defense that's allowed just 28 points over its last three games.
What time does Bears vs. Packers kick off?
This Week 5 NFC North matchup kicks off Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay.
How do Kalshi event contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the stated outcome happens and No if it doesn't. Shares bought at a given price pay out $1 each if the contract resolves in your favor, and nothing if it doesn't.
Are there more NFL prediction markets to trade this week?
Yes. Beyond this game, Kalshi has moneyline, spread, total, and player prop markets live across the full Week 5 NFL slate.
