The Padres sit one win from the NLDS after an 8-0 rout in Game 1 of Cubs vs. Padres. Tonight, the Cubs hand the ball to Kevin Gausman with their season on the line in an MLB Wild Card elimination game, and San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta at Petco Park.
First pitch: 10 p.m. ET on Peacock and NBCSN
Our pick: Under 6.5 runs (54% on Kalshi)
Lean: Padres to win (56%)
New users can back this Cubs vs. Padres prediction with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 and get up to $2,000 in bonus value.
Promo code:ACTION2000
Offer: Up to $2,000 in bonus value
Game: Cubs vs. Padres, NL Wild Card Game 2
Cubs vs. Padres Odds on Kalshi
Each price shows the chance traders give an outcome. At 56%, you pay 56 cents for a Padres contract that pays $1 if San Diego wins.
Prices move right up to first pitch, so check the app before you trade.
Cubs vs. Padres Prediction: Why We Like the Under
Pivetta Returns in Top Form
Pivetta missed nearly five months with a flexor strain, then came back in September looking like his old self. He owns a 2.86 ERA this season.
He also knows this lineup. In last year's Wild Card opener against Chicago, he allowed two runs over five innings and struck out nine.
Gausman Pitches on a Short Leash
Shoulder soreness in his final regular-season start pushed Gausman out of the Game 1 slot. He posted a 4.83 ERA in nine starts after the Cubs acquired him, so expect manager Craig Counsell to keep a quick hook.
That's not bad news for the Under. Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga and David Peterson all sit ready behind him, giving Chicago fresh arms for every inning.
Gausman also brings October experience. He posted a 2.93 ERA over 30.2 innings during Toronto's run to the 2025 World Series.
San Diego's Bullpen Enters Rested
Michael King carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning Tuesday, so the Padres barely touched their high-leverage relievers.
Closer Mason Miller and setup man Adrian Morejon both enter Game 2 fresh.
Chicago's Bats Went Silent
King struck out Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman five times in six combined at-bats, and the Cubs never scored.
Now Chicago faces a rested Pivetta, a full Padres bullpen, and a pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Cubs vs. Padres Prediction: Our Pick
Take the Under 6.5 runs at 54%.
San Diego scored eight runs in Game 1, but Matthew Boyd gave up four of them in four innings. Tonight, Chicago brings a better starter and a stronger bullpen. Two deep pitching staffs make this one of the best Under spots on the MLB slate.
Lean: Padres to win at 56%.
History backs San Diego. Teams that lose Game 1 in the current Wild Card format hold a 1-15 record in those series.
For a bigger payout, Padres -1.5 costs 38 cents per contract.
How to Claim Kalshi Promo Code ACTION2000
- Tap Claim Offer on this page.
- Create your account and verify your identity.
- Enter the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 when prompted.
- Fund your account and make your first trade on tonight's game.
Offer terms and eligibility requirements apply. Check the terms in the Kalshi app to see how your bonus value unlocks.
Why Trade the MLB Playoffs on Prediction Markets
Prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts on game outcomes. If the game swings your way, you can sell your position before the final out.
Kalshi prices often differ from sportsbook MLB odds, so comparing both helps you spot value on your Cubs vs. Padres prediction.
New to Kalshi? Read our full Kalshi review, or compare options in our guides to the best prediction market apps and the best prediction market promos.
Cubs vs. Padres Game 2 FAQ
What is the best Cubs vs. Padres prediction for Game 2?
Our Cubs vs. Padres prediction is Under 6.5 runs at 54% on Kalshi, with a lean on the Padres to win.
What time does Game 2 start?
First pitch is at 10 p.m. ET on Peacock and NBCSN.
Who pitches in Game 2?
Kevin Gausman starts for the Cubs. Nick Pivetta starts for the Padres.
What is the Kalshi promo code?
Use the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 to get up to $2,000 in bonus value.
What happens if the Cubs win?
The series moves to a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday. Walker Buehler is the likely Padres starter.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
