Falcons vs. Packers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 25, 2026

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Full write up here: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons-vs-green-bay-packers-prediction-pick-odds-nfl-thursday-night-football-september-24

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#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

@GDAWG5000 2 https://www.youtube.com/live/vKn-eOi9GTY?is=149lYX7Mm6XMRtzC

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tackle props are still a pretty niche market and the numbers can move quickly, but they’re one of my favorite markets to handicap because so much of the edge comes from projecting opportunity rather than simply whether a defender is “good” or “bad” at tackling. And they are extremely fun to sweat. With Watts, I have Atlanta facing around 4.5 fewer completions than they’ve averaged through two games and roughly 4 more run plays. That actually hurts him a bit because he’s been involved on 14% of completions but only 11.7% of runs. Green Bay has also been brutal on the ground at just 3.3 yards per carry, and Watts’ average depth of tackle on runs is around 9 yards downfield, so he tends to benefit more when backs are actually getting into the secondary. I also think Atlanta may keep him deeper more often to protect against Christian Watson and Matthew Golden creating explosive plays. He’ll still mix in on some of those, but 6.5 is a high number if you need explosives to feed him. The other factor is time of possession. I think Atlanta has a real chance to control the ball here, which could leave Watts on the sideline for more than half the game. He’s averaged around 5.4 tackles through his first 19 career games and has reached 7+ just 26% of the time. I have him closer to 5.7 tackles with around a 64% chance to stay under 6.5.d

Oh Tucker

Went Under Now Take Over Overall: 101-44-1,70% (ROI:35%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA

Just a little insurance but I’m loving this ML play this week.

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PX

Tailing Royal

I missed the best number while waiting on quarterback news, but I still think the Falcons have a really good chance to win this game outright. The Packers come into this game 1-1, but I’ve been very unimpressed with this team through two weeks. They collapsed in all phases in Week 1 and needed a fourth quarter comeback against the Jets last weekend to win in overtime. Green Bay has been undisciplined, and its offensive line remains a major problem. The Packers rank 30th in both run blocking and pass blocking grade. I was concerned about their offensive line during the preseason, and those concerns are playing out now. Green Bay is also dealing with injuries to Josh Jacobs, Micah Parsons, and now Reed. This team is not at full strength, and we need to stop acting like it is. PFF has the Packers graded as the second worst overall team in the NFL through two weeks. PFF grades aren’t everything, but I always like to see how teams are graded. The Packers are also 28th in offensive DVOA and 16th in defensive DVOA. This team has looked underwhelming, and I don’t see that changing here despite playing an “inferior” team. The Falcons come in 0-2 and have looked brutal, but I have reason to believe they’re much better than what we’ve seen. For starters, they actually have a competent quarterback starting this week. Michael Penix is back from injury, and we no longer have to watch Cooper Rush. He was truly unplayable and single handedly gave the Falcons no shot of winning on Sunday. I actually thought Atlanta played well in that game despite the final score. Rush simply gave them no chance. Despite looking poor at times in both games, this Falcons defense is actually quite good. Atlanta ranks sixth in pass rush grade and gets a phenomenal matchup tonight. The Falcons also rank in the top half of the league in coverage grade. Offensively, it’s hard to imagine this unit playing worse with Penix under center, especially with the sneaky elite talent it has in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. This play also fits a system that’s almost an auto play for me: bet on teams that enter Week 3 at 0-2 both straight up and against the spread. Since 2015, teams in this spot have gone 30-12 ATS (71.4%). The Falcons fit that system in this game. Sure, Lambeau Field is a tough place to play, but this is simply too many points for this current Packers team to be laying. Our model agrees, making the Packers just 2.22 point favorites. Give me the Falcons +5.5.

Bijan had 8 targets in W1 and just 3 in W2 but was barely on the field in the second half. With Penix returning from his ACL injury, we should see a lot of Bijan.

One more for the road.

Wouldn’t go crazy here because who knows what we are getting from Penix but don’t think GB should be laying this many with the state of their OL + other injuries.

THE BLITZ is forecasting 3.35 receptions for Kyle Pitts Sr. compared to 4.00 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 59% of the time, resulting in a 26% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $26.23. This play is good down to at least -104. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Early szn Bounce Back Overall: 335-232-10,59% (ROI:15%) Season:3-4-0,43% (ROI:-18%) Dog off Big Loss Overall: 255-180-4,59% (ROI:13%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:87%) Winless Road Teams Overall: 211-144-5,59% (ROI:15%) Season:3-2-0,60% (ROI:14%) #TSA

NOT a Hot Read. Buying out of our Lookahead position in an advantageous spot. Line got to -7 as expected but GB coming off OT now with D on field a ton, history not kind to that team on a short week (see also Det last Thurs) and Rush/Strand so bad ATL almost has to rush Penix back now. I just don’t need this position and I expect the line may drop back below 7 if Penix plays so just playing the other side to buy out and lock in a small 0.08u profit and be out on a game I don’t want to be invested in. You have options here. You could play 7 or 7.5 if he gets there and hope for a middle, but risk losing both vig. You could tilt this so it’s a free roll at like 0.15u in one direction. Or play the presumed CLV and let it ride. My math says this is +0.08u either way and I’m out. No thanks.

Week 3 Lookahead As always, the goal of the Lookahead is to get ahead of the market before Sunday's results shift the numbers. We are targeting the Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 3. We talked above about the boatload of injuries Atlanta is facing: Chris Lindstrom, A.J. Terrell, and a total unknown at quarterback. If those guys don't play on Sunday, they are unlikely to turn around and play on a short week by Thursday. The Falcons appear to be tanking, and I doubt they rush their best players back to the field. If those players are out, I make this line Packers -8. Green Bay will either be riding high with public faith restored after beating the Jets, or the Packers will be a desperate 0-2 team playing to save their season. Atlanta has no pass rush to expose Green Bay's bad offensive line, and Jordan Love should pick apart a depleted secondary. Matt LaFleur is a ridiculous 17-5 ATS in the first three weeks of the season—the best mark of any coach in our BetLabs database. We are ducking the key numbers of six and seven right now. I doubt this line stays below -6 by the time Thursday rolls around.