Falcons vs Saints Prediction: Today’s Best NFL TD Props on Polymarket (MNF Best Bets)

Monday Night Football closes out Week 4 with an NFC South scrap between two 1-2 teams trying to avoid an early hole, and Polymarket has a full touchdown scorer board up for Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints. Eight players carry meaningful prices in both the anytime touchdown market and the first touchdown market, giving traders two different ways to play the same game.

Bijan Robinson enters off a 194-yard, two-score outing on Thursday night, Drake London just drew 10 targets in a blowout win without finding paydirt once, and both Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are playing through midweek injuries that kept their practice reps limited. Kyle Pitts, fresh off a three-year extension, rounds out a board that also includes New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough, priced higher than you'd expect for a passer.

Below is the full board, ranked by Polymarket's anytime touchdown price from favorite to longshot, followed by a full breakdown of every player, the matchup context behind the number, and the payout math on both the anytime and first touchdown contract for each.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction

New Orleans is a short home favorite, with most books setting the Saints around -2.5 to -3.5 and the total sitting in the 45.5 to 48.5 range. Both teams arrive at 1-2, and both are banged up at the skill positions that matter most for this board.

The Saints' run defense has allowed more rushing yardage than almost every team in the league, which sets up well for Atlanta's ground game. On the other side, the Falcons rank near the top of the league in defensive EPA allowed per play, which should cap some of New Orleans' explosive plays even if Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara both suit up as expected.

Best Touchdown Scorer – Bijan Robinson

Robinson carries no injury designation into Monday night after a Week 3 line of 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay, and he now walks into a Saints run defense that's been gashed all year. The board has him at 63% (63¢) on anytime, which is the shortest price here but still leaves room given how often he's finding the end zone lately, and 19% (19¢) on first touchdown, the highest first-score number on the entire board.

A $100 position at 63¢ buys roughly 159 shares, worth $1 apiece on a Yes. At 19¢ on first touchdown, that same $100 buys about 526 shares. Fees and order book depth mean the realized return on either side lands a touch under the headline math.

• Anytime: If Robinson finds the end zone at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $58.73 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If Robinson scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $426.32 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Robinson scores later in the game.

A roughly 1.6x anytime multiple and a 5.3x first touchdown multiple, both backed by a back who just posted his best game of the year against a defense this soft up front.

Best Wide Receiver Touchdown Scorer – Chris Olave

Olave strained his hamstring in Friday practice and was briefly questionable, but he has since been cleared and is expected to play after a heavy-volume Week 3 showing. He leads New Orleans in targets and remains the clear first read in the passing game whenever he's healthy enough to run full routes.

At 41% (41¢) on anytime, the board isn't discounting him much for the injury, which reads fair for a true WR1 but leaves little margin if his routes are limited early. The first touchdown number at 10% (10¢) is more interesting, since it assumes he's a full participant in the opening script.

A $100 buy at 41¢ converts to about 244 shares. At 10¢ on first touchdown, that same stake buys 1,000 shares, each worth a dollar if he scores first.

• Anytime: If Olave scores at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $143.90 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If Olave scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $900.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Olave scores later in the game.

Roughly a 2.4x anytime multiple on a legitimate WR1 workload, with the 10x first touchdown number worth only a small-stake swing given the hamstring question mark.

Best Goal-Line Back Touchdown Scorer – Alvin Kamara

Kamara was limited for two straight practices with a hip and ribs issue before being cleared to play, and he's shared early-down work with Travis Etienne all season. Even so, New Orleans has historically funneled goal-line work to Kamara over the top of its depth chart, and that history is doing real work in this 41% (41¢) anytime price.

The gap between that number and his 11% (11¢) first touchdown price is the real story. The market is pricing him as a game-long scoring threat on volume and touches near the goal line, not as someone who's likely to be the one who opens the scoring.

A $100 stake at 41¢ buys about 244 shares on anytime. On first touchdown at 11¢, that same $100 buys roughly 909 shares.

• Anytime: If Kamara scores at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $143.90 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If Kamara scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $809.09 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Kamara scores later in the game.

A 2.4x anytime multiple carries real injury risk attached to it, and the 9.1x first touchdown price is a longshot swing at best given how early he's been on the field on opening drives this year.

Best Value Touchdown Scorer – Drake London

London just caught nine of 10 targets for 194 yards in the Week 3 win over Green Bay, and he's up to 15 catches on 20 targets for 274 yards through three games without a single touchdown. That's the kind of volume-to-score gap that usually corrects itself, and it's exactly why he's priced within a cent of Olave and Kamara despite carrying a far heavier workload.

At 40% (40¢) on anytime, the board hasn't fully caught up to how often the ball is in his hands near the end zone. The 9% (9¢) first touchdown price is more in line with his role as a possession target rather than a scripted opener.

A $100 buy at 40¢ works out to 250 shares. At 9¢ on first touchdown, that same stake buys about 1,111 shares.

• Anytime: If London scores at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $150.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If London scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,011.11 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if London scores later in the game.

A 2.5x anytime multiple on a receiver overdue for touchdown regression is the most interesting price gap on the entire board.

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Best Red Zone Target Touchdown Scorer – Juwan Johnson

Johnson finished second on the team in targets a year ago behind only Olave, and he's historically been a red zone chain-mover for New Orleans even as the team has added more pass-catching weapons around him. Fellow tight end Noah Fant was limited in practice this week, which should keep Johnson's role from shrinking on Monday night.

At 27% (27¢) on anytime, the board reads him as a clear complementary scoring option rather than the first option, and the 7% (7¢) first touchdown price fits a tight end who typically gets going as drives progress rather than on the opening possession.

A $100 position at 27¢ buys roughly 370 shares. At 7¢ on first touchdown, that same $100 buys about 1,429 shares.

• Anytime: If Johnson scores at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $270.37 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If Johnson scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,328.57 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Johnson scores later in the game.

Roughly a 3.7x anytime payout on a proven red zone target, with the 14.3x first touchdown price strictly a small-stake longshot play.

Best Breakout Touchdown Scorer – Kendre Miller

Miller sits behind both Travis Etienne and Kamara on the Saints' depth chart, but Kamara's hip and ribs issue this week is exactly the kind of situation that bumps a third back's workload up on short notice. The market ticked his anytime price up a point since the open, which lines up with that injury context.

At 25% (25¢) on anytime, the board is pricing in a real chance of elevated work if Kamara is managed closely, and the 6% (6¢) first touchdown price reflects that he's unlikely to be the one who opens the scoring even in that scenario.

A $100 buy at 25¢ converts to 400 shares. At 6¢ on first touchdown, that same stake buys roughly 1,667 shares.

• Anytime: If Miller scores at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $300.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If Miller scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,566.67 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Miller scores later in the game.

A 4x anytime multiple tied directly to how much work Kamara's injury opens up, a genuinely conditional bet rather than a standalone one.

Best Quarterback Touchdown Scorer – Tyler Shough

Only passing touchdowns are excluded here, so this price is entirely about Shough's legs. He's thrown for the third-most yards in the league through three weeks running Kellen Moore's up-tempo offense, and a 24% (24¢) anytime price for a quarterback who isn't known as a primary rushing threat stands out as the most unusual number on the board.

That price likely reflects short-yardage sneak opportunities inside a high-snap, no-huddle attack rather than any expectation of designed runs, and the 6% (6¢) first touchdown price is consistent with that read.

A $100 position at 24¢ buys roughly 417 shares. At 6¢ on first touchdown, that same $100 buys about 1,667 shares.

• Anytime: If Shough scores at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $316.67 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If Shough scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,566.67 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Shough scores later in the game.

A 4.2x anytime multiple on a quarterback is a live number worth tracking on a high-snap-count offense, but it's a sneak-dependent bet rather than a feature of the game plan.

Best Tight End Touchdown Scorer – Kyle Pitts Sr.

Pitts just signed a three-year, $54 million extension, and last season he delivered the best stretch of his career, including a three-touchdown game in December. He carries no injury designation into this matchup, and he operates behind London and ahead of a crowded Falcons pass-catching room.

At 21% (21¢) on anytime, the board has him as the lowest-priced of the three Falcons skill players featured here, fair for a player who's typically the third or fourth read rather than the primary target. The 5% (5¢) first touchdown price is the longest on the board, which fits a tight end who tends to produce as games develop.

A $100 buy at 21¢ converts to roughly 476 shares. At 5¢ on first touchdown, that same stake buys 2,000 shares.

• Anytime: If Pitts scores at any point: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $376.19 in profit on the $100 position.
• Anytime: If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

• First TD: If Pitts scores the game's opening touchdown: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $1,900.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• First TD: If anyone else scores first: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, even if Pitts scores later in the game.

A 4.8x anytime multiple on a well-paid, high-ceiling tight end, with the 20x first touchdown price purely a lottery-ticket swing.

More touchdown scorer markets for tonight's game, plus every other NFL matchup, are live on Polymarket beyond the eight players covered here.

How to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions on Polymarket

Ready to take a position on tonight's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this beginner's guide to Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the touchdown scorer tabs on Polymarket to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

Don't forget to use the promo code ACTIONwhen signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!

Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.

NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The dominant theme on this board is a soft Saints run defense running into a Falcons backfield that just produced its best game of the season, which explains why Bijan Robinson sits well above everyone else at 63¢.

Drake London's price looks soft relative to his target share. Fifteen catches on 20 looks through three games without a touchdown is the kind of gap that tends to close, and his 40¢ anytime price hasn't fully adjusted for it yet.

Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are two sides of the same injury story. If Kamara's hip and ribs issue limits his snaps in-game, Miller's price has room to climb further, while Kamara's current 41¢ number carries more risk than its face value suggests.

Lineup news out of Atlanta and New Orleans can reprice this board quickly before kickoff, so it's worth checking the prediction market apps one more time closer to 8:15 PM ET.

NFL Predictions: Final Thoughts

This board runs from a 63¢ favorite in Bijan Robinson down to a 5¢ longshot in Kyle Pitts on first touchdown, and the first touchdown side of this board in particular is a small-stake game. Every price from Robinson's 19¢ down to Pitts' 5¢ implies a narrow path, and treating a 10x or 20x multiple as free money ignores how often these markets resolve No.

Drake London's touchdown regression spot and the Kamara/Miller injury pairing are the two angles worth sizing carefully rather than ignoring. Treat every contract here as an independent all-or-nothing position, not a parlay, and size each one on its own.

NFL Predictions and Touchdown Bets: Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code and offer?

Sign up with the Polymarket promo code ACTIONand you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!

What are the best touchdown bets on tonight's Falcons-Saints board?

Bijan Robinson's 63¢ anytime price is the shortest and most supported by current form, while Drake London's 40¢ price offers the best value given his touchdown-less, high-volume start to the season.

Which player carries the highest implied probability of scoring a touchdown?

Bijan Robinson leads the board at 63% on anytime touchdown and 19% on first touchdown, both the highest marks among the eight featured players.

How do Polymarket anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

An anytime touchdown contract resolves Yes if the named player scores one or more rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game. Passing touchdowns do not count, and whether special teams or defensive scores count varies by market, so check the specific contract's rules section.

How does the first touchdown market differ from anytime?

A first touchdown contract resolves Yes only if the named player scores the very first touchdown of the game, by either team. A player who scores multiple times later but not first still resolves No, which is why first touchdown prices run far lower than anytime prices for the same player.

How do I claim the promo and start trading tonight's game?

Create a Polymarket account, use the promo code linked above, and navigate to the Falcons-Saints touchdown scorer markets before the 8:15 PM ET kickoff to lock in current prices.

When do these contracts settle?

Touchdown scorer contracts settle shortly after the game concludes and official NFL statistics are confirmed, paying $1 per share on a Yes resolution and $0 on a No resolution.

Who is the Editor's Pick on this board and why?

Bijan Robinson, based on his no-injury-designation status, a 194-yard, two-touchdown performance last week, and a Saints run defense that has struggled to stop opposing backs all season.

Are more touchdown scorer markets available beyond these eight players?

Yes. Polymarket lists additional touchdown scorer contracts for this game and for every other NFL matchup on the Week 4 slate.