The Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race have both tightened in the polls over the past two weeks, even though Polymarket and Kalshi are telling very different stories about how competitive each contest really is.
Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon all have live Florida Governor Election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, plus a four-way Governor-Senate combo market on Kalshi.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (81¢) | $123.46 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $1000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.7¢) | $109.05 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (8.6¢) | $1162.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Florida Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's board is priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn't.
Both the Florida Governor Election market and the Florida Senate Race market resolve the night each race is called against the certified statewide result from the November 3 election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price for both races, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Florida Governor Race
Byron Donalds (YES 81¢ / NO 21¢)
Donalds is sitting comfortably as the near 4-to-1 favorite here, and the gap between that price and the real Jolly vs Donalds Polls numbers is the most interesting story in this race. Polymarket has even upgraded its own internal rating on the race from a toss-up to "Likely R."
A Stetson University poll released October 13 had Donalds up 52-41, but a Change Research survey from roughly the same window had the two tied at 47-47, and the market is clearly siding with the larger, more consistent batch of double-digit Donalds leads rather than the outlier tie.
David Jolly (YES 21¢ / NO 81¢, -1 pt)
Jolly slipped a point and is priced as a clear underdog despite a handful of Jolly vs Donalds Polls, including the Change Research and Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls surveys, showing the race essentially even.
His fundraising gap, roughly $14.6 million to Donalds' $120.9 million in combined committee money, appears to be weighing on the market's read more heavily than the closer public polling.
Florida Senate Race
Ashley Moody (YES 93¢ / NO 10¢, +1 pt)
Moody ticked up another point and is priced as close to a lock, and the Moody vs Nixon Polls back that up more than the Governor race's polling backs up Donalds.
A Quantus Insights survey had her up 50.1-42.7 and an NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll had her up 50-40, though a tighter Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey found her lead down to just 47-45.
Angie Nixon (YES 10¢ / NO 93¢)
Nixon's fundraising upset over Alexander Vindman in the primary and her standing with younger voters have kept her in the headlines, but neither has moved the market much.
Even the closest Moody vs Nixon Polls, like the 47-45 Florida Politics result, still leave her inside single digits on Polymarket.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists both races as regulated event contracts with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts settle once Florida's Secretary of State certifies the winner of the November 3 general election.
Florida Governor Race
Byron Donalds (YES 79¢ / NO 22¢)
Kalshi's board is holding steady right alongside Polymarket's here, with Donalds comfortably favored as the string of favorable Jolly vs Donalds Polls (Stetson, James Madison Institute, Mason-Dixon) keeps piling up.
David Jolly (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢)
Jolly's price here tracks with Decision Desk HQ's recent shift of the race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican," even with a handful of tied Jolly vs Donalds Polls still in circulation.
Florida Senate Race
Kalshi lists Yes and No separately for both sides of the Florida Senate Race, and the numbers land just a hair apart rather than as perfect mirror images: Moody's No sits at 8.7¢ while Nixon's Yes sits at 8.6¢, two prices describing the exact same outcome but trading on separate order books instead of one shared number.
Ashley Moody (YES 91.7¢ / NO 8.7¢, +0.9 pts)
Moody's price here lines up with the heavier side of the Moody vs Nixon Polls, including the 50-40 Mason-Dixon result, more than with the tighter 47-45 outlier, and Kalshi actually prices her a notch higher than Polymarket does.
Angie Nixon (YES 8.6¢ / NO 91.5¢, -0.9 pts)
Nixon slipped on Kalshi as Moody ticked up, and her No price sits a touch under Moody's Yes price for the same reason outlined above, a small liquidity gap rather than a disagreement about who wins.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders bet on how the two races land together, pricing all four possible Governor-Senate combinations in a single contract. Polymarket does not currently offer a matching combo market for this pairing, so the table below covers Kalshi's board alone.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 77¢ | NO 25¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 14¢ | NO 87¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 5¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 5¢ | NO 97¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race
The two boards are close to lockstep on both races. Donalds sits at YES 81¢ on Polymarket against YES 79¢ on Kalshi, while Jolly is priced identically at YES 21¢ on both exchanges.
The more interesting divergence is in how each platform handles the Florida Senate Race's missing side, and in how confident each board is in Moody overall. Polymarket only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so Moody's derived No comes out to exactly 10¢, matching Nixon's own quoted 10¢. Kalshi quotes both sides directly and actually leans a bit heavier on Moody, pricing her at YES 91.7¢ against a direct NO 8.7¢, while Nixon's own Kalshi Yes sits at just YES 8.6¢, lower than her 10¢ price on Polymarket. Neither gap reflects disagreement about who wins; it's the difference between a derived price and two independently quoted order books, plus a touch more conviction in Moody on Kalshi specifically.
Where the two platforms genuinely diverge in structure, not price, is the combo bets. Kalshi quotes all four Governor-Senate outcomes, down to the long-shot 5¢ split tickets, while Polymarket does not currently list a combo market for this pairing at all.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The clearest signal on either board is how consistently both exchanges have sided with the larger batch of double-digit Jolly vs Donalds Polls over the handful of tied or near-tied outliers.
A Stetson University poll had Donalds up 52-41 and a James Madison Institute survey had him up 10 points, while only Change Research and one St. Pete Polls survey have shown the race within the margin of error, and the market is pricing Donalds like the former group is right.
The Florida Senate Race tells a similar story, and it's the more active board of the two right now: Moody gained another point on both exchanges while Nixon gave one back, extending a lead that the bulk of Moody vs Nixon Polls, from Quantus Insights' 50-42.7 to Mason-Dixon's 50-40, already supported. Both exchanges now price her above 90% even though the lone Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey found the race down to 47-45.
The combo board backs up the same story in miniature: the split-ticket outcome pairing Jolly with Moody slipped two points on Kalshi, and a Democratic sweep pairing Jolly with Nixon slipped four, both moving further away from the traders as Moody's own number ticks up.
Early voting begins statewide by October 24, and any real shift in turnout data between now and Election Day, paired with whatever the next round of Jolly vs Donalds Polls and Moody vs Nixon Polls show, is the most likely trigger to reprice either board before November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (81¢) | $123.46 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $1000.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.7¢) | $109.05 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (8.6¢) | $1162.79 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is one ballot producing two very different kinds of markets: a Florida Governor Race that both exchanges treat as a comfortable Donalds lead despite a genuinely split polling picture, and a Florida Senate Race where Moody's lead is both wider and more consistently supported by the polls behind it.
Watch the combo bets for the cleanest single read on trader sentiment. A clean GOP sweep is priced as the most likely combined outcome on Kalshi at 77¢, well ahead of any split-ticket or Democratic-sweep scenario.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor Election odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 81¢ on Polymarket and 79¢ on Kalshi, implying roughly an 80% chance of winning, while David Jolly is priced at 21¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate Race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite, trading at 93¢ on Polymarket and 91.7¢ on Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced between 8.6¢ and 10¢ depending on the exchange.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds Polls show?
Most October surveys, including Stetson University's 52-41 and James Madison Institute's 10-point result, have Donalds comfortably ahead, though a Change Research poll and a St. Pete Polls survey have each shown the race tied or within two points.
How do Moody vs Nixon Polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
Most Moody vs Nixon Polls, including Quantus Insights' 50.1-42.7 and Mason-Dixon's 50-40, show a wide Moody lead that lines up with her price above 90¢ on both exchanges, though a Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey found the race as close as 47-45.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi disagree slightly on the Florida Governor Election?
The two boards actually agree closely on price, within a cent or two of each other on both candidates. The real difference shows up on the combo board, where Kalshi lists all four Governor-Senate outcomes and Polymarket doesn't currently offer a matching combo market at all.
Could Jolly vs Donalds Polls tighten further before November 3?
It's possible. The race has swung from double-digit Donalds leads to an outright tie depending on the pollster, and Jolly's fundraising disadvantage makes it harder for him to close that gap in the campaign's final weeks.
Are Moody vs Nixon Polls more predictive than the prediction markets?
Both have mostly agreed this cycle, with the bulk of Moody vs Nixon Polls showing a wide Moody lead that matches her price near 90¢ on both exchanges, though the one close poll hasn't moved either board.
What's the difference between the Florida Senate Race winner market and the combo bets?
The winner markets just price Moody against Nixon head to head, while the combo bets tie that outcome to the Governor's race, letting traders bet on a party sweep or a split ticket across both seats at once.
How do I trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
