Florida Senate race 2026 polls have Ashley Moody holding a clear lead over Angie Nixon, and the prediction markets mostly agree.
Polymarket prices Moody's reelection bid at 89%, with Kalshi right behind her at 88%, both reflecting a seat Republicans have controlled since 2012.
Still, Nixon has chipped away at the edges of that favorite status heading into the Nov. 3 special election to finish out Marco Rubio's unexpired term.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $12.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (13¢) | $669.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $11.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (12¢) | $733.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Senate election odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Florida Senate Election Odds: Moody vs Nixon on Polymarket
Polymarket's event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price doubling as the market's implied probability of that outcome.
A "Yes" share pays out $1.00 if the contract resolves correctly and $0 if it doesn't, so traders are buying and selling conviction in real time as the Florida Senate race develops. This market resolves to Yes if the Republican nominee wins the special election, with any runoff or tiebreak procedure folded into the final call.
Ashley Moody (YES 89¢ / NO 12¢)
Moody's price lines up almost exactly with the polling data behind the Moody vs Nixon matchup, where RealClearPolitics' average of recent surveys has her up roughly 8.7 points.
The incumbent has the structural advantages: Republican appointment, a Trump endorsement path, and a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Bill Nelson. Traders are pricing her as a heavy favorite, not a lock.
Angie Nixon (YES 13¢ / NO 88¢)
Nixon pulled off the bigger surprise of the summer, winning her primary over a far better-funded opponent despite being massively outraised.
That scrappy result is part of why her price sits in the low teens rather than down in single digits. A grand jury report tying Moody to a disputed $10 million Medicaid-to-nonprofit transfer gave Nixon a fresh attack line this fall, and the market has nudged slightly in her direction since.
Moody vs Nixon Florida Senate Election Odds on Kalshi
Kalshi runs the same basic mechanics as Polymarket: contracts price between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price is the market's live read on probability.
This particular market resolves by winning party, so the contract settles on which party's nominee ultimately wins the Nov. 3 special election rather than tracking an individual candidate's full term outcome.
Ashley Moody (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢, -1 pt)
Kalshi has Moody at 88% to hold the seat, a one-point dip from where the board sat previously.
It's a small move, but it's directionally consistent with the Hope Florida scandal headlines and Nixon's resignation calls working their way into trader sentiment, even if the fundamentals of the race haven't shifted.
Angie Nixon (YES 12¢ / NO 89¢, +1 pt)
Nixon's corresponding one-point gain puts her at 12% on Kalshi, up from the 95% implied favorite status Moody carried back when Nixon first won her primary.
The ceiling for a Democrat in a statewide Florida special election remains low given the state's recent red drift, but Nixon's fundraising underdog win and her willingness to go after Moody directly have kept this from turning into a total blowout on the board.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Senate Race
The two boards are close to a mirror image of each other on this race, which isn't surprising for a contest this far into the polling cycle.
Moody sits at YES 89¢ on Polymarket versus YES 90¢ on Kalshi, a one-cent gap that's essentially noise given the liquidity on both exchanges.
Nixon shows the same tight spread, priced at YES 13¢ on Polymarket and YES 12¢ on Kalshi.
The one real divergence is directional: Kalshi's board has moved a point toward Nixon recently, while Polymarket hasn't shown the same recent tick. That could reflect Kalshi's larger US political trading base reacting faster to the Hope Florida story, or it could just be ordinary order-book churn that evens out by the time more Florida Senate race 2026 polls land.
Florida Senate Race 2026 Polls: Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Both markets have barely budged from where they sat right after the August primary, when Kalshi had Moody as high as a 95% favorite.
The driving forces are structural: Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, Moody holds a sitting incumbent's fundraising and name-recognition edge, and the state's registration gap has only widened since 2018.
What's kept this from becoming a total runaway is Nixon herself. She beat a dramatically better-funded primary opponent, and the Hope Florida grand jury report gave her campaign a genuine news cycle heading into the fall.
Watch the early voting window, which opens Oct. 24, for the next real repricing catalyst. A disciplined Democratic turnout operation in South Florida and the I-4 corridor is the one scenario that could meaningfully move these boards before Nov. 3.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $12.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (13¢) | $669.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $11.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (12¢) | $733.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This race is telling the same story in the fundamentals and the markets: Moody is a heavy favorite, not an inevitability.
Nixon's primary upset and the Hope Florida controversy have kept the Florida Senate election odds from drifting into true landslide territory on either exchange.
Watch early voting numbers from Florida's biggest counties for the next real catalyst before both boards settle their final price on Nov. 3.
Florida Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Ashley Moody is the clear favorite. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have her near 90%, and polling averages show her up roughly 8 to 9 points over Angie Nixon.
When is the Florida Senate special election?
The special election is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, with the winner serving the remainder of Marco Rubio's term through January 2029.
What do Florida Senate race 2026 polls show in the Moody vs Nixon matchup?
Recent polling, including a RealClearPolitics average around Moody 49% to Nixon 40%, has consistently shown Moody ahead by high single digits, though one outlier poll in September showed the race within the margin of error.
Why did Angie Nixon's price move on Kalshi?
Nixon gained a point on Kalshi after a grand jury report connected Moody to a disputed $10 million transfer tied to the Hope Florida Foundation, which Nixon has used to call for Moody's resignation.
Is there a difference between the Polymarket and Kalshi odds on this race?
Not much. The two boards are within a cent or two of each other on both candidates, though Kalshi has shown slightly more recent movement toward Nixon than Polymarket has.
How does a Kalshi event contract settle?
This market resolves by winning party: the contract pays out based on which party's nominee wins the Nov. 3 special election, not on any other outcome.
Can I trade this market before Election Day?
Yes. Both Polymarket and Kalshi let you buy or sell your position at the live market price any time before the contract resolves, so you don't have to hold until Nov. 3 to lock in a result.
