The Florida Senate Race 2026 polls keep pointing the same direction, and Ashley Moody's lead over Angie Nixon just keeps widening.
A new NBC6/Telemundo Mason-Dixon survey has Moody up 50% to 40% heading into the November 3 special election, and the Kalshi and Polymarket boards have moved right alongside it.
Moody vs Nixon is no longer the toss-up some pollsters floated over the summer, and the Florida Senate election odds now sit closer to a lock than a real race.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.2¢) | $9.65 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $963.83 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Moody 6+ pts | YES (62¢) | $61.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Moody 8+ pts | YES (47¢) | $112.77 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $9.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Senate Race 2026 polls and odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Kalshi promo code or the Polymarket promo code.
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Florida Senate Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
On Florida Senate Kalshi markets, event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, mapping directly to the crowd's implied probability of the outcome.
A "Yes" contract pays out at $1.00 if the outcome hits, and $0 if it doesn't, with traders buying and selling positions right up until polls close.
Kalshi's main contract resolves to whichever candidate is certified the winner of the November 3 special election, while a separate Kalshi market prices the exact margin of victory.
Ashley Moody (YES 91.2¢ / NO 9.5¢, +0.4 pts)
Moody's contract has crept higher as the fall polling has consistently shown her clearing 48-50% against Nixon's 38-42%.
With Florida's registration edge and a double-digit fundraising advantage behind her, the market sees very little room left for an upset.
Angie Nixon (YES 9.4¢ / NO 90.9¢, -0.4 pts)
Nixon generated real attention after her primary upset over a better-funded opponent, but that momentum hasn't translated into a competitive general-election number.
Traders are pricing her as a true longshot, even accounting for the enthusiasm she's drawn from progressive outlets and local coverage.
Moody Wins by 6+ Points (YES 62¢ / NO 39¢, +1 pt)
This threshold sits right around the gap in the newest Mason-Dixon poll, so it's effectively a bet on whether that 10-point read holds up or narrows slightly by election night.
A 6-point final margin would also line up closely with the University of North Florida's summer polling, which had Moody ahead by 8.
Moody Wins by 8+ Points (YES 47¢ / NO 54¢)
At just under a coin flip, this is the margin-of-victory contract where Kalshi's board is genuinely split, unlike the near-lock pricing on the outright winner.
It's the clearest sign that while almost nobody on Kalshi doubts Moody wins, there's real disagreement over whether she wins comfortably or by a Mason-Dixon-sized double digit margin.
Beyond those two headline thresholds, Kalshi lists a full ladder of Florida Senate margin-of-victory contracts, from a Nixon upset all the way up to a Moody blowout:
| Margin of Victory | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nixon, 2+ pts | YES 7.9¢ | $1,165.82 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 2+ pts | YES 88¢ | $13.64 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 4+ pts | YES 81¢ | $23.46 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 6+ pts | YES 62¢ | $61.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 8+ pts | YES 47¢ | $112.77 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 10+ pts | YES 35¢ | $185.71 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 12+ pts | YES 21¢ | $376.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 14+ pts | YES 16¢ | $525.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 16+ pts | YES 8.5¢ | $1,076.47 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Moody, 18+ pts | YES 6¢ | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Florida Senate Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Florida Senate Polymarket contracts work the same way as Kalshi's, with Yes/No shares priced between 1¢ and 99¢ against the same November 3 resolution date.
Polymarket's board for this race is a straight head-to-head winner market, without the margin-of-victory layer Kalshi offers.
Ashley Moody (YES 91¢ / NO 10¢)
Polymarket's crowd is pricing this race almost identically to Kalshi's, with Moody a near-lock to win the seat Marco Rubio vacated.
The structural case hasn't moved: Florida hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, and Moody is sitting on roughly ten times Nixon's campaign cash.
Angie Nixon (YES 10¢ / NO 91¢)
Nixon's price here mirrors her Kalshi number almost to the cent, which tells you both crowds are reading the same polling and fundamentals.
Barring a major late-breaking shift in the race, Polymarket traders see her path to 51% as extremely narrow.
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on Florida Senate Election Odds
Kalshi and Polymarket agree almost completely on the top-line Moody vs Nixon question, with Moody's YES 91.2¢ on Kalshi sitting barely a cent above her YES 91¢ on Polymarket.
Nixon is priced within a cent across both boards as well, at YES 9.4¢ on Kalshi and YES 10¢ on Polymarket, so there's no meaningful arbitrage gap on the winner market right now.
The real difference is in product design, not pricing: Kalshi's margin-of-victory ladder lets traders express a view on how big Moody's win is, something Polymarket's binary winner-take-all contract simply doesn't offer for this race.
That gives Kalshi traders a way to hedge or amplify a Moody position without touching the underlying winner market, while Polymarket keeps things simpler for anyone who just wants a straight up-or-down call on Florida Senate election odds.
Florida Senate Race 2026 Polls: Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The board has moved a long way since midsummer, when a Pete Polls survey had Moody and Nixon separated by less than half a point and CNN's Harry Enten flagged the race as genuinely close.
Since then, Quantus Insights found Moody up 7, the University of North Florida put her ahead by 8, and the newest Mason-Dixon survey has her up 10, a steady widening that both Kalshi and Polymarket have tracked in real time.
Moody's fundraising edge, now roughly $11.3 million to under $1 million, and Florida's widening Republican registration gap are the structural forces keeping a floor under her price even as Nixon draws attacks over Moody's refusal to debate and the Hope Florida Medicaid controversy.
What could still move the board before November 3: another live debate request, a fresh round of likely-voter polling, or any shift in early-vote and mail-ballot turnout among Florida's registered Democrats.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.2¢) | $9.65 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $963.83 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Moody 6+ pts | YES (62¢) | $61.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Moody 8+ pts | YES (47¢) | $112.77 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $9.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
How to Trade Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
Kalshi and Polymarket have both settled on the same story: Ashley Moody is a heavy favorite, and the Florida Senate election odds now reflect a race that's drifted from competitive to comfortable over the past two months.
The one open question left on the board isn't who wins, it's by how much, which is exactly what Kalshi's margin-of-victory ladder is built to price.
Florida Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Ashley Moody is a heavy favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with each board pricing her above 90% to defeat Angie Nixon in the November 3 special election.
What do Florida Senate Race 2026 polls show in the Moody vs Nixon matchup?
The most recent NBC6/Telemundo Mason-Dixon poll has Moody leading Nixon 50% to 40%, continuing a trend of Republican-leaning surveys from Quantus Insights and the University of North Florida over the summer and early fall.
Who is favored in the Florida Senate election odds right now?
Both exchanges have Ashley Moody as the clear favorite, with implied probabilities in the low-to-mid 90s on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of this writing.
What does Florida Senate Kalshi pricing show for the margin of victory?
Kalshi's margin-of-victory ladder has Moody favored to win by at least 6 points, with that contract trading near a coin flip at the 8-point threshold, suggesting the market expects a comfortable but not necessarily blowout win.
Where can I trade Florida Senate Polymarket contracts?
Florida Senate Polymarket contracts can be traded directly on Polymarket's politics section, with Action Network's switchboard links in this piece routing you straight to the live order book.
How do Kalshi's margin-of-victory contracts differ from Polymarket's winner-take-all market?
Kalshi breaks the race into a ladder of point-spread contracts on top of its own winner market, while Polymarket for this race only offers the binary Moody-or-Nixon winner contract, with no separate margin product.
When is the Florida Senate special election?
The special election to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio's Senate term takes place on November 3, 2026, alongside Florida's other midterm races.
How does a Kalshi or Polymarket contract settle?
Each contract resolves to "Yes" at $1.00 if its stated outcome occurs, whether that's a candidate's certified win or a specific margin of victory, and to "No" at $0 otherwise, once official results are certified.
